Nacional 2-0 Estoril: Match Report, Goals, Stats and Ratings
Liga Portugal Matchday 2 · Sunday 16 August 2026 · Estádio da Madeira, Ilha da Madeira · referee B. Ribeiro Pires Costa · full time
Full time: Nacional 2-0 Estoril
Nacional beat Estoril 2-0 in Liga Portugal Matchday 2 on Sunday 16 August 2026 at Estádio da Madeira. The goals: Ze Vitor 68', Léo Santos 77'.
How Nacional won it
Ze Vitor put Nacional ahead in the 68th minute, set up by Léo Santos. Léo Santos made it 2-0 to Nacional in the 77th minute, set up by Daniel Jr.
It was 0-0 at half-time, and the second half changed the result.
Xeka of Estoril was sent off in the 32nd minute for a second yellow card. The referee, B. Ribeiro Pires Costa, showed 5 yellow cards: 2 to Nacional and 3 to Estoril.
Nacional: J. Baptista dos Santos Brito Gião, 3-4-2-1 · Estoril: V. Lopes Matos, 4-2-3-1.
Moneyball's prediction against the result
Moneyball did not publish a pre-match estimate for this match, so there is nothing to mark it against.
Why it went this way
On the day the expected goals were 0.71 for Nacional and 2.03 for Estoril.
Nacional scored about 1.3 more than their chances were worth: clinical finishing, or a goalkeeper having a bad day.
Estoril left about 2.0 goals' worth of chances on the pitch.
Estoril created the better chances, 2.03 xG to 0.71, and still lost. On chances alone, the result could easily have gone the other way.
Nacional had 3 shots on target, Estoril 5.
Nacional's goalkeeper made 5 saves.
Nacional had 59% of the ball and turned it into the win.
A red card changed the shape of the match, and no pre-match model can see one coming.
Where the two sides stood before this match
Nacional came into it with 8 Liga Portugal matches played, scoring 1.1 and conceding 2.3 a match, with 1.20 expected goals for and 1.75 against, and had won 13% of their matches.
Estoril came into it with 8 Liga Portugal matches played, scoring 0.5 and conceding 1.5 a match, with 0.92 expected goals for and 1.50 against, and had won 0% of their matches.
Nacional vs Estoril: the match in numbers
| Nacional | Match statistics | Estoril |
|---|---|---|
| 59% | Ball possession | 41% |
| 0.71 | Expected goals (xG) | 2.03 |
| 20 | Total shots | 9 |
| 3 | Shots on target | 5 |
| 5 | Big chances | 0 |
| 451 | Total passes | 316 |
| 87% | Pass accuracy | 80% |
| 7 | Corners | 4 |
| 13 | Fouls | 13 |
| 1 | Offsides | 0 |
| 13 | Tackles | 10 |
| 5 | Saves | 1 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
Team statistics from Sportmonks.
Player ratings and man of the match
Man of the match: Léo Santos (Nacional), rated 9.0 by Sportmonks, with 1 goal, 1 assist.
Nacional
- Léo Santos 9.0 1 goal, 1 assist
- Ze Vitor 8.6 1 goal
- Renato Marin 7.7
- Daniel Jr 7.4 1 assist
- Wesley Gasolina 7.2
Estoril
- João Carvalho 7.1
- Antef Tsoungui 6.8
- André Lacximicant 6.8
- Ferro 6.7
- Yanis Begraoui 6.7
The lowest-rated starter was Xeka at 6.1. Ratings run from 0 to 10; around 7.0 is a solid match.
What comes next
- Nacional: Nacional vs Sporting Braga Sunday 25 October 2026 · Liga Portugal
- Estoril: Estoril vs Moreirense Sunday 25 October 2026 · Liga Portugal
Each preview has Moneyball's estimate for the next match, published before kick-off and marked against the result afterwards, as this one is.
Questions about Nacional vs Estoril
What was the score in Nacional vs Estoril?
Nacional 2-0 Estoril (half-time 0-0), Liga Portugal, Sunday 16 August 2026.
Who scored in Nacional vs Estoril?
Ze Vitor 68', Léo Santos 77'.
Did Moneyball predict Nacional vs Estoril correctly?
Moneyball did not publish a pre-match estimate for this match, so there is nothing to mark it against.
Who was man of the match in Nacional vs Estoril?
Léo Santos, rated 9.0 by Sportmonks.
Who refereed Nacional vs Estoril?
B. Ribeiro Pires Costa.
Every match, before and after
Moneyball Odds writes a preview with its estimate before every match of Europe's top five leagues and the European cups, then marks it against the result, hits and misses alike.
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over.