Estoril vs Moreirense Prediction and Betting Tips | Liga Portugal Gameweek 9
Liga Portugal · Sunday 25 October 2026 · 15:30 UTC · Estádio António Coimbra da Mota, Estoril · updated 2026-10-25
Estoril welcome Moreirense to Estádio António Coimbra da Mota in Estoril in Liga Portugal Gameweek 9 action on Sunday 25 October 2026, kick-off 15:30 UTC.
Estoril have played 8 matches in Liga Portugal this season, scoring 0.5 and conceding 1.5 goals a game and winning 0% of them. At home they average 0.5 goals scored and 1.3 conceded over 4 matches, with a 0% win rate. Moreirense have played 8 matches in Liga Portugal this season, scoring 1.0 and conceding 1.9 goals a game and winning 25% of them. Away from home they average 0.8 goals scored and 1.8 conceded over 4 matches, with a 50% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, there is little to separate them: Estoril 40%, the draw 30%, Moreirense 30%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Estoril 1.25, Moreirense 1.03.
- Over 2.5 goals: 40% · both teams to score: 47%.
- Most likely score: 1–1 (14%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (8 and 8 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
Estoril: form and key numbers
In style Estoril play long and direct.
- Expected goals: 0.92 a match created, 1.50 conceded (goals minus xG: -3.4).
- Shots: 13.0 a match, 5.0 on target.
- Possession: 46.4% on average.
- Clean sheets: 13% of matches (100% at home).
- Both teams scored in 50% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.9 a match.
- Discipline: 2.1 yellow cards a match, 2.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.74.
Moreirense: form and key numbers
In style Moreirense are happy without the ball, play long and direct.
- Expected goals: 0.82 a match created, 1.76 conceded (goals minus xG: +1.4).
- Shots: 7.9 a match, 2.8 on target.
- Possession: 36.1% on average.
- Clean sheets: 13% of matches (100% away).
- Both teams scored in 50% of their matches.
- Corners: 2.4 a match.
- Discipline: 2.6 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.64.
Estoril vs Moreirense: season averages side by side
| Estoril | Per match this season | Moreirense |
|---|---|---|
| 8 | Matches | 8 |
| 0.5 | Goals scored | 1.0 |
| 1.5 | Goals conceded | 1.9 |
| 0.92 | Expected goals (xG) | 0.82 |
| 1.50 | xG conceded | 1.76 |
| 13.0 | Shots | 7.9 |
| 5.0 | On target | 2.8 |
| 46.4 | Possession % | 36.1 |
| 13% | Clean sheets % | 13% |
| 50% | Both teams scored % | 50% |
| 4.9 | Corners | 2.4 |
| 2.1 | Yellow cards | 2.6 |
| 6.74 | Average rating | 6.64 |
Players to watch
Estoril
- Jordan Holsgrove DMF · Deep-lying playmaker · Moneyball Score 49 · Long passer, Reads the game (top 11% of his position)
- Ferro CB · Stopper · Moneyball Score 48 · Ball-winner, Reads the game (top 4% of his position)
Moreirense
- Tiago Andrade LWF · Classic winger · Moneyball Score 50 · Draws fouls, Dribbler (top 5% of his position)
- Jóbson de Brito Gonzaga CB · Box defender · Moneyball Score 48 · Box defender, Blocks shots (top 3% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Ismael Sierra
Ismael Sierra, 23 · Estoril · CB · Box defender · Moneyball Score 50
Ismael Sierra, 23, plays as a centre-back for Estoril in Liga Portugal. Strongest for his role in interceptions and dribbled past. Weakest in tackles. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every centre-back in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average centre-back, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- CB · Centre-back Natural, 50
- DM · Defensive midfielder Competent, 38
- LB · Full-back Competent, 26
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Interceptions | 2.43 / 90 | 89% |
| Dribbled past | 0.14 / 90 | 81% |
| Long balls | 4.14 / 90 | 80% |
| Aerial duels won | 3.43 / 90 | 78% |
| Clearances | 6.86 / 90 | 60% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★½ Inverted full-back Full-back
- ★★★★½ Anchor Defensive midfielder
- ★★★ Box defender Centre-back
Scout's notes: Reads the game, Hard to dribble past.
- What Ismael Sierra is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Ismael Sierra's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Estoril vs Moreirense prediction
Estoril should have more of the ball, with Moreirense likely to sit in a compact block and look to break; both go long and direct. Moneyball's model expects about 2.3 goals - 1.25 for Estoril and 1.03 for Moreirense - with over 2.5 goals at 40% and both teams scoring at 47%. Little separates the sides on the numbers, and a draw is the single likeliest result.
Prediction: Estoril 1-1 Moreirense
Estoril vs Moreirense betting tips
- Tip 1: Draw or either side by one goal is the shape of it - avoid the result market no side above 40%
- Tip 2: Under 2.5 goals 60% by the model, 2.28 goals expected
- Tip 3: Over 3.5 cards the two sides average 7.8 cards a match between them
- Tip 4: Under 10.5 corners 7.3 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
More Liga Portugal previews
- Rio Ave vs Famalicão Sunday 25 October 2026
- Nacional vs Sporting Braga Sunday 25 October 2026
- Sporting CP vs Academico Viseu Sunday 25 October 2026
- Santa Clara vs Benfica Monday 26 October 2026
- Casa Pia vs Sporting CP Friday 30 October 2026
- Moreirense vs Estrela Amadora Saturday 31 October 2026
- Porto vs Estoril Saturday 31 October 2026
- Arouca vs Nacional Sunday 1 November 2026
Estoril vs Moreirense: questions and answers
When is Estoril vs Moreirense?
Estoril vs Moreirense is on Sunday 25 October 2026, kick-off 15:30 UTC, in Liga Portugal Gameweek 9.
Where is Estoril vs Moreirense played?
At Estádio António Coimbra da Mota, Estoril, Estoril's home ground.
Who will win Estoril vs Moreirense?
It is close: Estoril 40%, draw 30%, Moreirense 30%. Our prediction is Estoril 1-1 Moreirense.
Who is the player to watch in Estoril vs Moreirense?
Ismael Sierra of Estoril: a box defender with a Moneyball Score of 50 against every centre-back in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Estoril vs Moreirense?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.3 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 40%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.