Persebaya Surabaya vs Java United F.C Prediction and Stats | Liga 1 Indonesia Gameweek 10
Liga 1 Indonesia · Saturday 21 November 2026 · 08:30 UTC · Stadion Gelora Bung Tomo, Surabaya · updated 2026-11-13
Persebaya Surabaya welcome Java United F.C to Stadion Gelora Bung Tomo in Surabaya in Liga 1 Indonesia Gameweek 10 action on Saturday 21 November 2026, kick-off 08:30 UTC.
Persebaya Surabaya have played 9 matches in Liga 1 Indonesia this season, scoring 1.1 and conceding 0.9 goals a game and winning 33% of them. At home they average 1.6 goals scored and 1.0 conceded over 5 matches, with a 67% win rate. Java United F.C have played 9 matches in Liga 1 Indonesia this season, scoring 1.6 and conceding 1.2 goals a game and winning 44% of them. Away from home they average 1.0 goals scored and 1.5 conceded over 4 matches, with a 0% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, there is little to separate them: Persebaya Surabaya 39%, the draw 30%, Java United F.C 30%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Persebaya Surabaya 1.19, Java United F.C 1.02.
- Over 2.5 goals: 38% · both teams to score: 45%.
- Most likely score: 1–1 (14%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (9 and 9 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model.
Persebaya Surabaya: form and key numbers
In style Persebaya Surabaya keep the ball, press high, play long and direct.
- Shots: 12.1 a match, 3.7 on target.
- Possession: 55.8% on average.
- Clean sheets: 22% of matches (50% at home).
- Both teams scored in 56% of their matches.
- Corners: 7.4 a match.
- Discipline: 1.7 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.60.
Java United F.C: form and key numbers
In style Java United F.C are happy without the ball, play long and direct, cross a lot.
- Shots: 12.6 a match, 5.3 on target.
- Possession: 43.9% on average.
- Clean sheets: 11% of matches (0% away).
- Both teams scored in 78% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.4 a match.
- Discipline: 1.4 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.55.
Persebaya Surabaya vs Java United F.C: season averages side by side
| Persebaya Surabaya | Per match this season | Java United F.C |
|---|---|---|
| 9 | Matches | 9 |
| 1.1 | Goals scored | 1.6 |
| 0.9 | Goals conceded | 1.2 |
| 12.1 | Shots | 12.6 |
| 3.7 | On target | 5.3 |
| 55.8 | Possession % | 43.9 |
| 22% | Clean sheets % | 11% |
| 56% | Both teams scored % | 78% |
| 7.4 | Corners | 4.4 |
| 1.7 | Yellow cards | 1.4 |
| 6.60 | Average rating | 6.55 |
Players to watch
Persebaya Surabaya
- Ernando Ari GK · Ball-playing keeper · Moneyball Score 9 · Secure passer, Shot-stopper (top 3% of his position)
- Reza Arya Pratama GK · Ball-playing keeper · Moneyball Score 9 · Secure passer, Shot-stopper (top 3% of his position)
Java United F.C
- Jorge GK · Ball-playing keeper · Moneyball Score 9 · Secure passer, Shot-stopper (top 7% of his position)
- Kei Hirose CMF · Ball-winning midfielder · Moneyball Score 3 · Secure passer, Reads the game (top 25% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Gustavo
Gustavo, 30 · Java United F.C · CF · Poacher · Moneyball Score 4
Gustavo, 30, plays as a centre-forward for Java United F.C in Liga 1 Indonesia. Strongest for his role in shots on target and shot quality (xG per shot). Weakest in key passes. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average centre-forward, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- ST · Centre-forward Natural, 4
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Shots on target | 47% | 68% |
| Shot quality (xG per shot) | – | 53% |
| Big chances missed | 0.22 / 90 | 9% |
| Aerial duels won | 1.11 / 90 | 1% |
| Expected goals | 0.00 / 90 | 0% |
Roles he suits
- ★ Poacher Centre-forward
- ½ Pressing forward Centre-forward
- ½ Shadow striker Second striker
- What Gustavo is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Persebaya Surabaya vs Java United F.C prediction
Persebaya Surabaya should have more of the ball, with Java United F.C likely to sit in a compact block and look to break; both work the ball wide and cross. Moneyball's model expects about 2.2 goals - 1.19 for Persebaya Surabaya and 1.02 for Java United F.C - with over 2.5 goals at 38% and both teams scoring at 45%. Little separates the sides on the numbers, and a draw is the single likeliest result.
Prediction: Persebaya Surabaya 1-1 Java United F.C
Persebaya Surabaya vs Java United F.C: what the numbers say
- 1. A draw or either side by one goal is the likeliest shape no side above 39%
- 2. 2 goals or fewer 62% by the model, 2.21 goals expected
- 3. 4 cards or fewer the two sides average 3.1 cards a match between them
- 4. 10 or more corners 11.9 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties.
The full analysis
Moneyball reads every match in full: win, draw and loss, the most likely scores, goals and both teams to score, with the players who decide it.
More Liga 1 Indonesia previews
- PSS Sleman vs Arema Friday 20 November 2026
- Garudayaksa FC vs Madura United Friday 20 November 2026
- Dewa United vs Persita Friday 20 November 2026
- Persik Kediri vs PSIM Yogyakarta Saturday 21 November 2026
- Bhayangkara vs Persijap Saturday 21 November 2026
- PSM vs Persija Saturday 21 November 2026
- Isenmulang Kalteng F.C. vs Borneo Sunday 22 November 2026
- Persib vs Bali United Sunday 22 November 2026
Persebaya Surabaya vs Java United F.C: questions and answers
When is Persebaya Surabaya vs Java United F.C?
Persebaya Surabaya vs Java United F.C is on Saturday 21 November 2026, kick-off 08:30 UTC, in Liga 1 Indonesia Gameweek 10.
Where is Persebaya Surabaya vs Java United F.C played?
At Stadion Gelora Bung Tomo, Surabaya, Persebaya Surabaya's home ground.
Who will win Persebaya Surabaya vs Java United F.C?
It is close: Persebaya Surabaya 39%, draw 30%, Java United F.C 30%. Our prediction is Persebaya Surabaya 1-1 Java United F.C.
Who is the player to watch in Persebaya Surabaya vs Java United F.C?
Gustavo of Java United F.C: a poacher with a Moneyball Score of 4 against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Persebaya Surabaya vs Java United F.C?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.2 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 38%.
Tags
Moneyball is a football statistics site. No model predicts football reliably: every figure is an estimate.