PSS Sleman vs Arema Prediction and Stats | Liga 1 Indonesia Gameweek 10
Liga 1 Indonesia · Friday 20 November 2026 · 08:30 UTC · Stadion Maguwoharjo, Yogyakarta · updated 2026-11-13
PSS Sleman welcome Arema to Stadion Maguwoharjo in Yogyakarta in Liga 1 Indonesia Gameweek 10 action on Friday 20 November 2026, kick-off 08:30 UTC.
PSS Sleman have played 9 matches in Liga 1 Indonesia this season, scoring 1.3 and conceding 1.9 goals a game and winning 11% of them. At home they average 1.5 goals scored and 1.5 conceded over 4 matches, with a 100% win rate. Arema have played 9 matches in Liga 1 Indonesia this season, scoring 1.9 and conceding 2.2 goals a game and winning 22% of them. Away from home they average 1.3 goals scored and 3.5 conceded over 4 matches, with a 0% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, there is little to separate them: PSS Sleman 42%, the draw 22%, Arema 37%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: PSS Sleman 2.07, Arema 1.94.
- Over 2.5 goals: 76% · both teams to score: 75%.
- Most likely score: 3–1 (5%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (9 and 9 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model.
PSS Sleman: form and key numbers
In style PSS Sleman cross a lot, create plenty of chances.
- Shots: 10.3 a match, 3.7 on target.
- Possession: 49.3% on average.
- Clean sheets: 11% of matches (100% at home).
- Both teams scored in 89% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.0 a match.
- Discipline: 1.4 yellow cards a match, 2.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.51.
Arema: form and key numbers
In style Arema are happy without the ball, create plenty of chances.
- Shots: 9.0 a match, 4.4 on target.
- Possession: 44.2% on average.
- Clean sheets: 22% of matches (0% away).
- Both teams scored in 67% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.8 a match.
- Discipline: 1.7 yellow cards a match, 2.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.50.
PSS Sleman vs Arema: season averages side by side
| PSS Sleman | Per match this season | Arema |
|---|---|---|
| 9 | Matches | 9 |
| 1.3 | Goals scored | 1.9 |
| 1.9 | Goals conceded | 2.2 |
| 10.3 | Shots | 9.0 |
| 3.7 | On target | 4.4 |
| 49.3 | Possession % | 44.2 |
| 11% | Clean sheets % | 22% |
| 89% | Both teams scored % | 67% |
| 5.0 | Corners | 4.8 |
| 1.4 | Yellow cards | 1.7 |
| 6.51 | Average rating | 6.50 |
Players to watch
PSS Sleman
- Pedro Caracoci GK · Ball-playing keeper · Moneyball Score 9 · Secure passer, Shot-stopper (top 9% of his position)
- Matheus Fornazari CF · Poacher · Moneyball Score 4 · Takes high-quality shots, Dominant in the air (top 47% of his position)
Arema
- Adi Satryo GK · Ball-playing keeper · Moneyball Score 9 · Secure passer, Dominant in the air (top 12% of his position)
- Samuel Otusanya CF · Poacher · Moneyball Score 4 · Accurate shooter, Takes high-quality shots (top 35% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Gustavo Tocantins
Gustavo Tocantins, 30 · PSS Sleman · CF · Poacher · Moneyball Score 4
Gustavo Tocantins, 30, plays as a centre-forward for PSS Sleman in Liga 1 Indonesia. Strongest for his role in shots on target and shot quality (xG per shot). Weakest in key passes. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average centre-forward, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- ST · Centre-forward Natural, 4
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Shots on target | 47% | 65% |
| Shot quality (xG per shot) | – | 53% |
| Big chances missed | 0.15 / 90 | 15% |
| Aerial duels won | 1.49 / 90 | 1% |
| Expected goals | 0.00 / 90 | 0% |
Roles he suits
- ★ Poacher Centre-forward
- ½ Pressing forward Centre-forward
- ½ Shadow striker Second striker
- What Gustavo Tocantins is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Gustavo Tocantins's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
PSS Sleman vs Arema prediction
PSS Sleman should have more of the ball; PSS Sleman work the ball wide and cross. Moneyball's model expects about 4.0 goals - 2.07 for PSS Sleman and 1.94 for Arema - with over 2.5 goals at 76% and both teams scoring at 75%. Little separates the sides on the numbers, and a draw is the single likeliest result.
Prediction: PSS Sleman 2-2 Arema
PSS Sleman vs Arema: what the numbers say
- 1. A draw or either side by one goal is the likeliest shape no side above 42%
- 2. 4 or more goals 57% by the model, 4.01 goals expected
- 3. Both teams to score: yes 75% by the model
- 4. 4 or more cards the two sides average 7.1 cards a match between them
- 5. 9 or more corners 9.8 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties.
The full analysis
Moneyball reads every match in full: win, draw and loss, the most likely scores, goals and both teams to score, with the players who decide it.
More Liga 1 Indonesia previews
- Garudayaksa FC vs Madura United Friday 20 November 2026
- Dewa United vs Persita Friday 20 November 2026
- Persebaya Surabaya vs Java United F.C Saturday 21 November 2026
- Persik Kediri vs PSIM Yogyakarta Saturday 21 November 2026
- Bhayangkara vs Persijap Saturday 21 November 2026
- PSM vs Persija Saturday 21 November 2026
- Isenmulang Kalteng F.C. vs Borneo Sunday 22 November 2026
- Persib vs Bali United Sunday 22 November 2026
PSS Sleman vs Arema: questions and answers
When is PSS Sleman vs Arema?
PSS Sleman vs Arema is on Friday 20 November 2026, kick-off 08:30 UTC, in Liga 1 Indonesia Gameweek 10.
Where is PSS Sleman vs Arema played?
At Stadion Maguwoharjo, Yogyakarta, PSS Sleman's home ground.
Who will win PSS Sleman vs Arema?
It is close: PSS Sleman 42%, draw 22%, Arema 37%. Our prediction is PSS Sleman 2-2 Arema.
Who is the player to watch in PSS Sleman vs Arema?
Gustavo Tocantins of PSS Sleman: a poacher with a Moneyball Score of 4 against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in PSS Sleman vs Arema?
Moneyball's model expects about 4.0 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 76%.
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Moneyball is a football statistics site. No model predicts football reliably: every figure is an estimate.