Rosario Central 2-0 Estudiantes de Río Cuarto: Match Report, Goals, Stats and Ratings
Liga Profesional Argentina Matchday 16 · Saturday 7 November 2026 · Estadio 15 de Abril, Ciudad de Santa Fe · referee H. Mastrángelo · full time
Full time: Rosario Central 2-0 Estudiantes de Río Cuarto
Rosario Central 2-0 Estudiantes de Río Cuarto: Rosario Central took the points in Liga Profesional Argentina Matchday 16 on Saturday 7 November 2026 at Estadio 15 de Abril. The goals: Julián Fernández 44', Emanuel Coronel 86'. Moneyball's pre-match estimate had the result right.
How Rosario Central won it
Rosario Central struck first through Julián Fernández in the 44th minute, set up by Gastón Ávila. Emanuel Coronel made it 2-0 to Rosario Central in the 86th minute.
It was 1-0 at half-time.
Gastón Ávila of Rosario Central was sent off in the 72nd minute. The referee, H. Mastrángelo, showed 4 yellow cards: 0 to Rosario Central and 4 to Estudiantes de Río Cuarto.
Rosario Central: J. Almirón Quintana, 4-2-3-1 · Estudiantes de Río Cuarto: R. Forestello, 4-4-1-1.
Moneyball's prediction against the result
A Rosario Central win was the estimate's call at 69%, and it came in. The exact score was another matter: 3-0 was the likeliest, 2-0 the real one.
On goals the estimate was close: about 2.6 expected, 2 scored.
Over 2.5 goals had been put at 47%; with 2 goals the under came in, as the estimate leaned.
Both teams to score was 40%; they did not both score, in line with the estimate.
Computed before kick-off from both sides' season goals and expected goals as of 2026-11-07, through a Dixon-Coles score model, and left as it was.
Why it went this way
On the day the expected goals were 0.03 for Rosario Central and 1.08 for Estudiantes de Río Cuarto.
Rosario Central scored about 2.0 more than their chances were worth: clinical finishing, or a goalkeeper having a bad day.
Estudiantes de Río Cuarto left about 1.1 goals' worth of chances on the pitch.
Estudiantes de Río Cuarto created the better chances, 1.08 xG to 0.03, and still lost. On chances alone, the result could easily have gone the other way.
The run of play itself went against the pre-match reading: Moneyball expected Rosario Central to create more, and Estudiantes de Río Cuarto did.
Rosario Central had 6 shots on target, Estudiantes de Río Cuarto 1.
Rosario Central had 63% of the ball and turned it into the win.
A red card changed the shape of the match, and no pre-match model can see one coming.
Where the two sides stood before this match
Rosario Central came into it with 35 Liga Profesional Argentina matches played, scoring 1.5 and conceding 0.9 a match, with 1.48 expected goals for and 0.95 against, and had won 57% of their matches.
Estudiantes de Río Cuarto came into it with 32 Liga Profesional Argentina matches played, scoring 0.5 and conceding 1.5 a match, with 0.84 expected goals for and 1.30 against, and had won 9% of their matches.
Rosario Central vs Estudiantes de Río Cuarto: the match in numbers
| Rosario Central | Match statistics | Estudiantes de Río Cuarto |
|---|---|---|
| 63% | Ball possession | 37% |
| 0.03 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.08 |
| 15 | Total shots | 1 |
| 6 | Shots on target | 1 |
| 6 | Big chances | 0 |
| 416 | Total passes | 252 |
| 85% | Pass accuracy | 66% |
| 12 | Corners | 2 |
| 14 | Fouls | 18 |
| 1 | Offsides | 1 |
| 18 | Tackles | 20 |
| 1 | Saves | 3 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
Team statistics from Sportmonks.
Player ratings and man of the match
Man of the match: Emanuel Coronel (Rosario Central), rated 8.3 by Sportmonks, with 1 goal.
Rosario Central
- Emanuel Coronel 8.3 1 goal
- Julián Fernández 7.8 1 goal
- Franco Ibarra 7.7
- Agustín Sández 7.5
- Ignacio Ovando 7.5
Estudiantes de Río Cuarto
- Sergio Ojeda 6.9
- Alejandro Cabrera 6.8
- Tomás González 6.5
- Ibrahim Hesar 6.5
- Lucas Baños 6.5
The lowest-rated starter was Fernando Rodríguez at 6.2. Ratings run from 0 to 10; around 7.0 is a solid match.
What comes next
- Rosario Central: Rosario Central vs Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza Sunday 22 November 2026 · Liga Profesional Argentina
Each preview has Moneyball's estimate for the next match, published before kick-off and marked against the result afterwards, as this one is.
Questions about Rosario Central vs Estudiantes de Río Cuarto
What was the score in Rosario Central vs Estudiantes de Río Cuarto?
Rosario Central 2-0 Estudiantes de Río Cuarto (half-time 1-0), Liga Profesional Argentina, Saturday 7 November 2026.
Who scored in Rosario Central vs Estudiantes de Río Cuarto?
Julián Fernández 44', Emanuel Coronel 86'.
Did Moneyball predict Rosario Central vs Estudiantes de Río Cuarto correctly?
A Rosario Central win was the estimate's call at 69%, and it came in. The exact score was another matter: 3-0 was the likeliest, 2-0 the real one.
Who was man of the match in Rosario Central vs Estudiantes de Río Cuarto?
Emanuel Coronel, rated 8.3 by Sportmonks.
Who refereed Rosario Central vs Estudiantes de Río Cuarto?
H. Mastrángelo.
Every match, before and after
Moneyball writes a preview with its estimate before every match of Europe's top five leagues and the European cups, then marks it against the result, hits and misses alike.
Moneyball is a football statistics site. No model predicts football reliably: every figure is an estimate.