Moneyball OddsDixon-Coles · xG fusion
Back to Moneyball Odds

Ajax 1-3 PSV: Match Report, Goals, Stats and Ratings

Full time: Ajax 1-3 PSV

Ajax 1-3 PSV: PSV took the points in Eredivisie Matchday 5 on Saturday 5 September 2026 at Johan Cruijff Arena. The goals: Ricardo Pepi 5', Tolu Arokodare 23', Lutsharel Geertruida 45+1', Esmir Bajraktarevic 90+2'.

How PSV won it

PSV struck first through Ricardo Pepi in the 5th minute, set up by Ruben van Bommel. Ajax levelled at 1-1 in the 23rd minute through Tolu Arokodare. Lutsharel Geertruida made it 1-2 to PSV in the 45th minute (+1). Esmir Bajraktarevic made it 1-3 to PSV in the 90th minute (+2), set up by Sven Mijnans.

It was 1-2 at half-time.

The referee, S. van der Eijk, showed 10 yellow cards: 4 to Ajax and 6 to PSV.

Ajax: M. Sánchez Muñoz, 4-3-3 · PSV: P. Bosz, 4-2-3-1.

Moneyball's prediction against the result

Moneyball did not publish a pre-match estimate for this match, so there is nothing to mark it against.

Why it went this way

On the day the expected goals were 2.41 for Ajax and 1.97 for PSV.

Ajax scored about 1.4 fewer than their chances were worth: poor finishing, or a goalkeeper at his best.

PSV made more of their chances than the xG suggests, by about 1.0 goals.

Ajax had 6 shots on target, PSV 5.

PSV's goalkeeper made 5 saves.

Ajax had 53% of the ball, but PSV took the points.

Where the two sides stood before this match

Ajax came into it with 9 Eredivisie matches played, scoring 3.0 and conceding 1.3 a match, with 2.67 expected goals for and 1.25 against, and had won 56% of their matches.

PSV came into it with 10 Eredivisie matches played, scoring 2.8 and conceding 1.3 a match, with 2.41 expected goals for and 1.23 against, and had won 60% of their matches.

Ajax vs PSV: the match in numbers

AjaxMatch statisticsPSV
53%Ball possession47%
2.41Expected goals (xG)1.97
19Total shots13
6Shots on target5
4Big chances3
517Total passes445
83%Pass accuracy86%
1Corners1
6Fouls13
0Offsides1
24Tackles26
2Saves5
4Yellow cards6

Team statistics from Sportmonks.

Player ratings and man of the match

Man of the match: Lutsharel Geertruida (PSV), rated 7.7 by Sportmonks, with 1 goal.

Ajax

PSV

The lowest-rated starter was Davy Klaassen at 6.2. Ratings run from 0 to 10; around 7.0 is a solid match.

What comes next

Each preview has Moneyball's estimate for the next match, published before kick-off and marked against the result afterwards, as this one is.

Questions about Ajax vs PSV

What was the score in Ajax vs PSV?

Ajax 1-3 PSV (half-time 1-2), Eredivisie, Saturday 5 September 2026.

Who scored in Ajax vs PSV?

Ricardo Pepi 5', Tolu Arokodare 23', Lutsharel Geertruida 45+1', Esmir Bajraktarevic 90+2'.

Did Moneyball predict Ajax vs PSV correctly?

Moneyball did not publish a pre-match estimate for this match, so there is nothing to mark it against.

Who was man of the match in Ajax vs PSV?

Lutsharel Geertruida, rated 7.7 by Sportmonks.

Who refereed Ajax vs PSV?

S. van der Eijk.

Every match, before and after

Moneyball Odds writes a preview with its estimate before every match of Europe's top five leagues and the European cups, then marks it against the result, hits and misses alike.

Open Moneyball Odds Match Live All match reports

Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over.