Sparta Rotterdam vs Ajax Prediction and Betting Tips | Eredivisie Gameweek 10
Eredivisie · Sunday 25 October 2026 · 15:45 UTC · Sparta-Stadion Het Kasteel, Rotterdam · updated 2026-10-25
Sparta Rotterdam welcome Ajax to Sparta-Stadion Het Kasteel in Rotterdam in Eredivisie Gameweek 10 action on Sunday 25 October 2026, kick-off 15:45 UTC.
Sparta Rotterdam have played 9 matches in Eredivisie this season, scoring 1.8 and conceding 2.4 goals a game and winning 22% of them. At home they average 1.6 goals scored and 2.4 conceded over 5 matches, with a 50% win rate. Ajax have played 9 matches in Eredivisie this season, scoring 3.0 and conceding 1.3 goals a game and winning 56% of them. Away from home they average 4.0 goals scored and 0.8 conceded over 4 matches, with a 80% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, Ajax are narrow favourites at 60%, with the draw at 19% and Sparta Rotterdam at 22%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Sparta Rotterdam 1.58, Ajax 2.63.
- Over 2.5 goals: 79% · both teams to score: 74%.
- Most likely score: 1–3 (7%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (9 and 9 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
Sparta Rotterdam: form and key numbers
In style Sparta Rotterdam are happy without the ball, play long and direct, create plenty of chances.
- Expected goals: 1.88 a match created, 2.13 conceded (goals minus xG: -0.9).
- Shots: 14.7 a match, 5.1 on target.
- Possession: 44.8% on average.
- Clean sheets: 0% of matches (0% at home).
- Both teams scored in 78% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.7 a match.
- Discipline: 1.7 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.75.
Ajax: form and key numbers
In style Ajax keep the ball, press high, cross a lot.
- Expected goals: 2.67 a match created, 1.25 conceded (goals minus xG: +3.0).
- Shots: 22.9 a match, 7.9 on target.
- Possession: 62.4% on average.
- Clean sheets: 22% of matches (100% away).
- Both teams scored in 78% of their matches.
- Corners: 7.1 a match.
- Discipline: 2.1 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 7.05.
Sparta Rotterdam vs Ajax: season averages side by side
| Sparta Rotterdam | Per match this season | Ajax |
|---|---|---|
| 9 | Matches | 9 |
| 1.8 | Goals scored | 3.0 |
| 2.4 | Goals conceded | 1.3 |
| 1.88 | Expected goals (xG) | 2.67 |
| 2.13 | xG conceded | 1.25 |
| 14.7 | Shots | 22.9 |
| 5.1 | On target | 7.9 |
| 44.8 | Possession % | 62.4 |
| 0% | Clean sheets % | 22% |
| 78% | Both teams scored % | 78% |
| 5.7 | Corners | 7.1 |
| 1.7 | Yellow cards | 2.1 |
| 6.75 | Average rating | 7.05 |
Players to watch
Sparta Rotterdam
- Milan Zonneveld CF · Target man · Moneyball Score 62 · Dominant in the air, Chance creator (top 2% of his position)
- Mitchell van Bergen RWF · Creative winger · Moneyball Score 44 · Big-chance creator, Creator (top 35% of his position)
Ajax
- Steven Berghuis RWF · Creative winger · Moneyball Score 55 · Crosser, Creator (top 11% of his position)
- Tolu Arokodare CF · Target man · Moneyball Score 55 · High shot volume, Dominant in the air (top 11% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Oscar Gloukh
Oscar Gloukh, 22 · Ajax · AMF · Dribbling playmaker · Moneyball Score 68
Oscar Gloukh, 22, plays as an attacking midfielder for Ajax in the Eredivisie. Strongest for his role in successful dribbles and shots. Weakest in through balls. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every attacking midfielder in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average attacking midfielder, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- CAM · Attacking midfielder Natural, 68
- LW · Winger Natural, 68
- RW · Winger Accomplished, 65
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Successful dribbles | 3.65 / 90 | 99% |
| Shots | 4.72 / 90 | 92% |
| Expected assists (est.) | 0.47 / 90 | 90% |
| Big chances created | 0.91 / 90 | 90% |
| Expected goals | 0.57 / 90 | 90% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★½ Creative winger Winger
- ★★★★½ Inside forward Winger
- ★★★★ Classic winger Winger
Scout's notes: Dribbler, High shot volume, Creator.
- What Oscar Gloukh is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Oscar Gloukh's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Sparta Rotterdam vs Ajax prediction
Ajax should have more of the ball, with Sparta Rotterdam likely to sit in a compact block and look to break; Sparta Rotterdam go long and direct; Ajax work the ball wide and cross. Moneyball's model expects about 4.2 goals - 1.58 for Sparta Rotterdam and 2.63 for Ajax - with over 2.5 goals at 79% and both teams scoring at 74%. Ajax have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to take something from the trip.
Prediction: Sparta Rotterdam 1-3 Ajax
Sparta Rotterdam vs Ajax betting tips
- Tip 1: Ajax to win 60% on Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers
- Tip 2: Over 3.5 goals 61% by the model, 4.20 goals expected
- Tip 3: Both teams to score: yes 74% by the model
- Tip 4: Under 4.5 cards the two sides average 3.8 cards a match between them
- Tip 5: Over 9.5 corners 12.8 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
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- PSV vs Willem II Saturday 31 October 2026
- SC Cambuur vs Go Ahead Eagles Saturday 31 October 2026
- Ajax vs AZ Alkmaar Saturday 31 October 2026
- PEC Zwolle vs ADO Den Haag Sunday 1 November 2026
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Sparta Rotterdam vs Ajax: questions and answers
When is Sparta Rotterdam vs Ajax?
Sparta Rotterdam vs Ajax is on Sunday 25 October 2026, kick-off 15:45 UTC, in Eredivisie Gameweek 10.
Where is Sparta Rotterdam vs Ajax played?
At Sparta-Stadion Het Kasteel, Rotterdam, Sparta Rotterdam's home ground.
Who will win Sparta Rotterdam vs Ajax?
Ajax are the favourites: Sparta Rotterdam 22%, draw 19%, Ajax 60%. Our prediction is Sparta Rotterdam 1-3 Ajax.
Who is the player to watch in Sparta Rotterdam vs Ajax?
Oscar Gloukh of Ajax: a dribbling playmaker with a Moneyball Score of 68 against every attacking midfielder in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Sparta Rotterdam vs Ajax?
Moneyball's model expects about 4.2 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 79%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.