PSV vs Willem II Prediction and Betting Tips | Eredivisie Gameweek 11
Eredivisie · Saturday 31 October 2026 · 17:45 UTC · Philips Stadion, Eindhoven · updated 2026-10-25
PSV welcome Willem II to Philips Stadion in Eindhoven in Eredivisie Gameweek 11 action on Saturday 31 October 2026, kick-off 17:45 UTC.
PSV have played 10 matches in Eredivisie this season, scoring 2.8 and conceding 1.3 goals a game and winning 60% of them. At home they average 2.8 goals scored and 1.0 conceded over 5 matches, with a 50% win rate. Willem II have played 10 matches in Eredivisie this season, scoring 1.0 and conceding 3.2 goals a game and winning 0% of them. Away from home they average 1.2 goals scored and 3.2 conceded over 5 matches, with a 0% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, PSV are clear favourites at 83%, with the draw at 11% and Willem II at 6%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: PSV 3.42, Willem II 0.95.
- Over 2.5 goals: 81% · both teams to score: 59%.
- Most likely score: 3–1 (8%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (10 and 10 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
PSV: form and key numbers
In style PSV keep the ball, press high, cross a lot.
- Expected goals: 2.41 a match created, 1.23 conceded (goals minus xG: +3.9).
- Shots: 19.7 a match, 7.1 on target.
- Possession: 60.0% on average.
- Clean sheets: 10% of matches (100% at home).
- Both teams scored in 90% of their matches.
- Corners: 6.5 a match.
- Discipline: 1.9 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 7.01.
Willem II: form and key numbers
In style Willem II are happy without the ball, play long and direct, cross a lot.
- Expected goals: 1.32 a match created, 2.20 conceded (goals minus xG: -3.2).
- Shots: 11.6 a match, 2.7 on target.
- Possession: 41.5% on average.
- Clean sheets: 0% of matches (0% away).
- Both teams scored in 80% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.8 a match.
- Discipline: 1.4 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.58.
PSV vs Willem II: season averages side by side
| PSV | Per match this season | Willem II |
|---|---|---|
| 10 | Matches | 10 |
| 2.8 | Goals scored | 1.0 |
| 1.3 | Goals conceded | 3.2 |
| 2.41 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.32 |
| 1.23 | xG conceded | 2.20 |
| 19.7 | Shots | 11.6 |
| 7.1 | On target | 2.7 |
| 60.0 | Possession % | 41.5 |
| 10% | Clean sheets % | 0% |
| 90% | Both teams scored % | 80% |
| 6.5 | Corners | 4.8 |
| 1.9 | Yellow cards | 1.4 |
| 7.01 | Average rating | 6.58 |
Players to watch
PSV
- Noah Fernandez CMF · Box-to-box midfielder · Moneyball Score 42 · Dribbler, Gets into scoring positions (top 11% of his position)
- Paul Wanner CMF · Box-to-box midfielder · Moneyball Score 40 · Secure passer, Chance creator (top 18% of his position)
Willem II
- Nathan Tjoe-A-On LWB · Complete wing-back · Moneyball Score 37 · Reads the game, Dribbler (top 5% of his position)
- Finn Stam CB · Box defender · Moneyball Score 30 · Box defender, Reads the game (top 39% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Ricardo Pepi
Ricardo Pepi, 23 · PSV · CF · Poacher · Moneyball Score 40
Ricardo Pepi, 23, plays as a centre-forward for PSV in the Eredivisie. Strongest for his role in shot quality (xG per shot) and expected goals. Weakest in duels won. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average centre-forward, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- ST · Centre-forward Natural, 40
- SS · Second striker Accomplished, 36
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Shot quality (xG per shot) | 0.23 xG/shot | 92% |
| Expected goals | 0.90 / 90 | 83% |
| Shots | 3.93 / 90 | 51% |
| Shots on target | 37% | 40% |
| Goals | 0.41 / 90 | 39% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★ Shadow striker Second striker
- ★★★½ Poacher Centre-forward
- ★★ Pressing forward Centre-forward
Scout's notes: Takes high-quality shots, Gets into scoring positions.
- What Ricardo Pepi is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Ricardo Pepi's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
PSV vs Willem II prediction
PSV should have more of the ball, with Willem II likely to sit in a compact block and look to break; PSV work the ball wide and cross; Willem II are a threat in the air and from set pieces. Moneyball's model expects about 4.4 goals - 3.42 for PSV and 0.95 for Willem II - with over 2.5 goals at 81% and both teams scoring at 59%. PSV have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: PSV 3-1 Willem II
PSV vs Willem II betting tips
- Tip 1: PSV to win 83% on Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers
- Tip 2: Over 3.5 goals 63% by the model, 4.36 goals expected
- Tip 3: Both teams to score: yes 59% by the model
- Tip 4: Over 3.5 cards the two sides average 4.3 cards a match between them
- Tip 5: Over 9.5 corners 11.3 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
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PSV vs Willem II: questions and answers
When is PSV vs Willem II?
PSV vs Willem II is on Saturday 31 October 2026, kick-off 17:45 UTC, in Eredivisie Gameweek 11.
Where is PSV vs Willem II played?
At Philips Stadion, Eindhoven, PSV's home ground.
Who will win PSV vs Willem II?
PSV are the favourites: PSV 83%, draw 11%, Willem II 6%. Our prediction is PSV 3-1 Willem II.
Who is the player to watch in PSV vs Willem II?
Ricardo Pepi of PSV: a poacher with a Moneyball Score of 40 against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in PSV vs Willem II?
Moneyball's model expects about 4.4 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 81%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.