Real Madrid vs Deportivo Alavés Prediction and Stats | La Liga Gameweek 14
La Liga · Saturday 28 November 2026 · 20:00 UTC · Estadio Santiago Bernabéu, Madrid · updated 2026-11-14
Real Madrid welcome Deportivo Alavés to Estadio Santiago Bernabéu in Madrid in La Liga Gameweek 14 action on Saturday 28 November 2026, kick-off 20:00 UTC.
Real Madrid have played 12 matches in La Liga this season, scoring 2.6 and conceding 0.8 goals a game and winning 83% of them. At home they average 3.4 goals scored and 0.6 conceded over 5 matches, with a 50% win rate. Deportivo Alavés have played 12 matches in La Liga this season, scoring 1.3 and conceding 1.4 goals a game and winning 25% of them. Away from home they average 0.7 goals scored and 1.8 conceded over 6 matches, with a 0% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, Real Madrid are clear favourites at 69%, with the draw at 19% and Deportivo Alavés at 12%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Real Madrid 2.32, Deportivo Alavés 0.88.
- Over 2.5 goals: 62% · both teams to score: 53%.
- Most likely score: 2–1 (10%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (12 and 12 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model.
Real Madrid: form and key numbers
In style Real Madrid keep the ball, press high, play long and direct.
- Expected goals: 2.18 a match created, 1.15 conceded (goals minus xG: +4.8).
- Shots: 17.4 a match, 7.3 on target.
- Possession: 53.2% on average.
- Clean sheets: 33% of matches (50% at home).
- Both teams scored in 58% of their matches.
- Corners: 6.3 a match.
- Discipline: 2.0 yellow cards a match, 2.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 7.13.
Deportivo Alavés: form and key numbers
In style Deportivo Alavés are happy without the ball, play long and direct, cross a lot.
- Expected goals: 1.15 a match created, 1.41 conceded (goals minus xG: +1.2).
- Shots: 12.4 a match, 4.3 on target.
- Possession: 41.1% on average.
- Clean sheets: 33% of matches (50% away).
- Both teams scored in 58% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.0 a match.
- Discipline: 1.9 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.76.
Real Madrid vs Deportivo Alavés: season averages side by side
| Real Madrid | Per match this season | Deportivo Alavés |
|---|---|---|
| 12 | Matches | 12 |
| 2.6 | Goals scored | 1.3 |
| 0.8 | Goals conceded | 1.4 |
| 2.18 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.15 |
| 1.15 | xG conceded | 1.41 |
| 17.4 | Shots | 12.4 |
| 7.3 | On target | 4.3 |
| 53.2 | Possession % | 41.1 |
| 33% | Clean sheets % | 33% |
| 58% | Both teams scored % | 58% |
| 6.3 | Corners | 4.0 |
| 2.0 | Yellow cards | 1.9 |
| 7.13 | Average rating | 6.76 |
Players to watch
Real Madrid
- Jude Bellingham AMF · Dribbling playmaker · Moneyball Score 76 · Draws fouls, Dribbler (top 1% of his position)
- Kylian Mbappé CF · Poacher · Moneyball Score 73 · High shot volume, Scores and makes the chances to keep scoring (top 1% of his position)
Deportivo Alavés
- Ángel Pérez RWF · Creative winger · Moneyball Score 60 · Press-resistant, Crosser (top 1% of his position)
- Toni Martínez CF · Target man · Moneyball Score 55 · Duel winner, Dominant in the air (top 3% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Arda Güler
Arda Güler, 21 · Real Madrid · AMF · Creator · Moneyball Score 91
Arda Güler, 21, plays as an attacking midfielder for Real Madrid in La Liga. Strongest for his role in key passes and expected assists (est.). Weakest in dispossessed. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every attacking midfielder in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average attacking midfielder, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- CAM · Attacking midfielder Natural, 91
- RW · Winger Natural, 90
- RM · Wide midfielder Natural, 86
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Key passes | 5.08 / 90 | 100% |
| Expected assists (est.) | 0.80 / 90 | 100% |
| Big chances created | 1.69 / 90 | 100% |
| Expected goals | 0.36 / 90 | 95% |
| Pass accuracy | 89% | 90% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★★ Creative winger Winger
- ★★★★★ Wide playmaker Wide midfielder
- ★★★★★ Creator Attacking midfielder
Scout's notes: Chance creator, Creator, Big-chance creator.
- What Arda Güler is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Arda Güler's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Real Madrid vs Deportivo Alavés prediction
Real Madrid should have more of the ball, with Deportivo Alavés likely to sit in a compact block and look to break; Real Madrid like to take players on; Deportivo Alavés work the ball wide and cross. Moneyball's model expects about 3.2 goals - 2.32 for Real Madrid and 0.88 for Deportivo Alavés - with over 2.5 goals at 62% and both teams scoring at 53%. Real Madrid have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: Real Madrid 2-1 Deportivo Alavés
Real Madrid vs Deportivo Alavés: what the numbers say
- 1. Real Madrid win, the likeliest result 69% on Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers
- 2. 3 or more goals 62% by the model, 3.20 goals expected
- 3. 4 or more cards the two sides average 6.9 cards a match between them
- 4. 9 or more corners 10.3 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties.
The full analysis
Moneyball reads every match in full: win, draw and loss, the most likely scores, goals and both teams to score, with the players who decide it.
More La Liga previews
- Athletic Club vs Espanyol Friday 20 November 2026
- Deportivo Alavés vs Deportivo A Coruña Saturday 21 November 2026
- Rayo Vallecano vs Valencia Saturday 21 November 2026
- Sevilla vs Real Betis Saturday 21 November 2026
- Real Madrid vs Celta de Vigo Saturday 21 November 2026
- FC Barcelona vs Villarreal Sunday 22 November 2026
- Racing Santander vs Real Sociedad Sunday 22 November 2026
- Osasuna vs Málaga Sunday 22 November 2026
Real Madrid vs Deportivo Alavés: questions and answers
When is Real Madrid vs Deportivo Alavés?
Real Madrid vs Deportivo Alavés is on Saturday 28 November 2026, kick-off 20:00 UTC, in La Liga Gameweek 14.
Where is Real Madrid vs Deportivo Alavés played?
At Estadio Santiago Bernabéu, Madrid, Real Madrid's home ground.
Who will win Real Madrid vs Deportivo Alavés?
Real Madrid are the favourites: Real Madrid 69%, draw 19%, Deportivo Alavés 12%. Our prediction is Real Madrid 2-1 Deportivo Alavés.
Who is the player to watch in Real Madrid vs Deportivo Alavés?
Arda Güler of Real Madrid: a creator with a Moneyball Score of 91 against every attacking midfielder in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Real Madrid vs Deportivo Alavés?
Moneyball's model expects about 3.2 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 62%.
Tags
Moneyball is a football statistics site. No model predicts football reliably: every figure is an estimate.