Elche vs Atlético de Madrid Prediction and Stats | La Liga Gameweek 14
La Liga · Saturday 28 November 2026 · 17:30 UTC · Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero, Elche · updated 2026-11-14
Elche welcome Atlético de Madrid to Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero in Elche in La Liga Gameweek 14 action on Saturday 28 November 2026, kick-off 17:30 UTC.
Elche have played 12 matches in La Liga this season, scoring 1.2 and conceding 1.7 goals a game and winning 17% of them. At home they average 0.7 goals scored and 2.3 conceded over 6 matches, with a 0% win rate. Atlético de Madrid have played 12 matches in La Liga this season, scoring 1.9 and conceding 0.8 goals a game and winning 75% of them. Away from home they average 1.8 goals scored and 0.8 conceded over 6 matches, with a 56% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, Atlético de Madrid are narrow favourites at 49%, with the draw at 26% and Elche at 25%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Elche 1.10, Atlético de Madrid 1.65.
- Over 2.5 goals: 52% · both teams to score: 55%.
- Most likely score: 1–2 (10%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (12 and 12 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model.
Elche: form and key numbers
- Expected goals: 1.32 a match created, 1.53 conceded (goals minus xG: -1.9).
- Shots: 12.0 a match, 4.3 on target.
- Possession: 51.5% on average.
- Clean sheets: 25% of matches (33% at home).
- Both teams scored in 50% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.9 a match.
- Discipline: 2.8 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.77.
Atlético de Madrid: form and key numbers
In style Atlético de Madrid keep the ball, press high, take players on.
- Expected goals: 1.60 a match created, 1.19 conceded (goals minus xG: +3.8).
- Shots: 16.6 a match, 5.9 on target.
- Possession: 57.0% on average.
- Clean sheets: 50% of matches (50% away).
- Both teams scored in 42% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.6 a match.
- Discipline: 2.3 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.97.
Elche vs Atlético de Madrid: season averages side by side
| Elche | Per match this season | Atlético de Madrid |
|---|---|---|
| 12 | Matches | 12 |
| 1.2 | Goals scored | 1.9 |
| 1.7 | Goals conceded | 0.8 |
| 1.32 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.60 |
| 1.53 | xG conceded | 1.19 |
| 12.0 | Shots | 16.6 |
| 4.3 | On target | 5.9 |
| 51.5 | Possession % | 57.0 |
| 25% | Clean sheets % | 50% |
| 50% | Both teams scored % | 42% |
| 4.9 | Corners | 5.6 |
| 2.8 | Yellow cards | 2.3 |
| 6.77 | Average rating | 6.97 |
Players to watch
Elche
- Federico Redondo DMF · Anchor · Moneyball Score 69 · Secure passer, Press-resistant (top 6% of his position)
- Gonzalo Villar CMF · Playmaker · Moneyball Score 56 · Chance creator, Ball-winner (top 25% of his position)
Atlético de Madrid
- Morten Hjulmand DMF · Ball-winner · Moneyball Score 76 · Secure passer, Hard to dribble past (top 12% of his position)
- Pablo Barrios CMF · Ball-winning midfielder · Moneyball Score 74 · Dribbler, Ball circulator (top 2% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Fer Niño
Fer Niño, 26 · Elche · CF · Target man · Moneyball Score 67
Fer Niño, 26, plays as a centre-forward for Elche in La Liga. Strongest for his role in duels won and aerial duels won. Weakest in key passes. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average centre-forward, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- ST · Centre-forward Natural, 67
- SS · Second striker Accomplished, 58
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Duels won | 6.98 / 90 | 91% |
| Aerial duels won | 3.32 / 90 | 87% |
| Shot quality (xG per shot) | 0.19 xG/shot | 82% |
| Big chances missed | 0.23 / 90 | 77% |
| Goals, luck taken out | 0.53 / 90 | 74% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★½ Target man Centre-forward
- ★★★★ Shadow striker Second striker
- ★★★★ Poacher Centre-forward
Scout's notes: Duel winner, Dominant in the air, Takes high-quality shots.
- What Fer Niño is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Elche vs Atlético de Madrid prediction
Atlético de Madrid should have more of the ball; Atlético de Madrid like to take players on. Moneyball's model expects about 2.8 goals - 1.10 for Elche and 1.65 for Atlético de Madrid - with over 2.5 goals at 52% and both teams scoring at 55%. Atlético de Madrid have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to take something from the trip.
Prediction: Elche 1-2 Atlético de Madrid
Elche vs Atlético de Madrid: what the numbers say
- 1. Atlético de Madrid unbeaten (win or draw) 75% between them
- 2. 2 or more goals 2.75 goals expected; 2.5 is close to a coin toss (52%)
- 3. 4 or more cards the two sides average 7.1 cards a match between them
- 4. 10 or more corners 10.5 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties.
The full analysis
Moneyball reads every match in full: win, draw and loss, the most likely scores, goals and both teams to score, with the players who decide it.
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Elche vs Atlético de Madrid: questions and answers
When is Elche vs Atlético de Madrid?
Elche vs Atlético de Madrid is on Saturday 28 November 2026, kick-off 17:30 UTC, in La Liga Gameweek 14.
Where is Elche vs Atlético de Madrid played?
At Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero, Elche, Elche's home ground.
Who will win Elche vs Atlético de Madrid?
Atlético de Madrid are the favourites: Elche 25%, draw 26%, Atlético de Madrid 49%. Our prediction is Elche 1-2 Atlético de Madrid.
Who is the player to watch in Elche vs Atlético de Madrid?
Fer Niño of Elche: a target man with a Moneyball Score of 67 against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Elche vs Atlético de Madrid?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.8 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 52%.
Tags
Moneyball is a football statistics site. No model predicts football reliably: every figure is an estimate.