Arema vs Persebaya Surabaya Prediction and Stats | Liga 1 Indonesia Gameweek 11
Liga 1 Indonesia · Sunday 29 November 2026 · 08:30 UTC · Stadion Kanjuruhan, Kepanjen · updated 2026-11-15
Arema welcome Persebaya Surabaya to Stadion Kanjuruhan in Kepanjen in Liga 1 Indonesia Gameweek 11 action on Sunday 29 November 2026, kick-off 08:30 UTC.
Arema have played 9 matches in Liga 1 Indonesia this season, scoring 1.9 and conceding 2.2 goals a game and winning 22% of them. At home they average 2.4 goals scored and 1.2 conceded over 5 matches, with a 100% win rate. Persebaya Surabaya have played 9 matches in Liga 1 Indonesia this season, scoring 1.1 and conceding 0.9 goals a game and winning 33% of them. Away from home they average 0.5 goals scored and 0.8 conceded over 4 matches, with a 33% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, there is little to separate them: Arema 35%, the draw 26%, Persebaya Surabaya 39%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Arema 1.42, Persebaya Surabaya 1.52.
- Over 2.5 goals: 56% · both teams to score: 60%.
- Most likely score: 1–2 (9%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (9 and 9 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model.
Arema: form and key numbers
In style Arema are happy without the ball, create plenty of chances.
- Shots: 9.0 a match, 4.4 on target.
- Possession: 44.2% on average.
- Clean sheets: 22% of matches (100% at home).
- Both teams scored in 67% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.8 a match.
- Discipline: 1.7 yellow cards a match, 2.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.50.
Persebaya Surabaya: form and key numbers
In style Persebaya Surabaya keep the ball, press high, play long and direct.
- Shots: 12.1 a match, 3.7 on target.
- Possession: 53.3% on average.
- Clean sheets: 22% of matches (50% away).
- Both teams scored in 56% of their matches.
- Corners: 7.4 a match.
- Discipline: 1.7 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.63.
Arema vs Persebaya Surabaya: season averages side by side
| Arema | Per match this season | Persebaya Surabaya |
|---|---|---|
| 9 | Matches | 9 |
| 1.9 | Goals scored | 1.1 |
| 2.2 | Goals conceded | 0.9 |
| 9.0 | Shots | 12.1 |
| 4.4 | On target | 3.7 |
| 44.2 | Possession % | 53.3 |
| 22% | Clean sheets % | 22% |
| 67% | Both teams scored % | 56% |
| 4.8 | Corners | 7.4 |
| 1.7 | Yellow cards | 1.7 |
| 6.50 | Average rating | 6.63 |
Players to watch
Arema
- Samuel Otusanya CF · Poacher · Moneyball Score 12 · Accurate shooter, Takes high-quality shots (top 35% of his position)
- Hansamu Yama CB · Ball-playing centre-back · Moneyball Score 11 · Secure passer, Hard to dribble past (top 66% of his position)
Persebaya Surabaya
- Ernando Ari GK · Ball-playing keeper · Moneyball Score 13 · Secure passer, Shot-stopper (top 3% of his position)
- Reza Arya Pratama GK · Ball-playing keeper · Moneyball Score 12 · Secure passer, Shot-stopper (top 17% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Yann Mabella
Yann Mabella, 30 · Persebaya Surabaya · CF · Poacher · Moneyball Score 11
Yann Mabella, 30, plays as a centre-forward for Persebaya Surabaya in Liga 1 Indonesia. Strongest for his role in shot quality (xG per shot) and big chances missed. Weakest in key passes. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average centre-forward, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- RW · Winger Natural, 11
- ST · Centre-forward Natural, 11
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Shot quality (xG per shot) | – | 53% |
| Big chances missed | 0.00 / 90 | 20% |
| Shots on target | 20% | 12% |
| Aerial duels won | 0.00 / 90 | 1% |
| Expected goals | 0.00 / 90 | 0% |
Roles he suits
- ★ Poacher Centre-forward
- ½ Pressing forward Centre-forward
- ½ Dribbling forward Second striker
- What Yann Mabella is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Yann Mabella's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Arema vs Persebaya Surabaya prediction
Persebaya Surabaya should have more of the ball, with Arema likely to sit in a compact block and look to break; Persebaya Surabaya work the ball wide and cross. Moneyball's model expects about 2.9 goals - 1.42 for Arema and 1.52 for Persebaya Surabaya - with over 2.5 goals at 56% and both teams scoring at 60%. Little separates the sides on the numbers, and a draw is the single likeliest result.
Prediction: Arema 1-1 Persebaya Surabaya
Arema vs Persebaya Surabaya: what the numbers say
- 1. A draw or either side by one goal is the likeliest shape no side above 39%
- 2. 3 or more goals 56% by the model, 2.94 goals expected
- 3. Both teams to score: yes 60% by the model
- 4. 4 or more cards the two sides average 5.3 cards a match between them
- 5. 10 or more corners 12.2 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties.
The full analysis
Moneyball reads every match in full: win, draw and loss, the most likely scores, goals and both teams to score, with the players who decide it.
More Liga 1 Indonesia previews
- PSS Sleman vs Arema Friday 20 November 2026
- Garudayaksa FC vs Madura United Friday 20 November 2026
- Dewa United vs Persita Friday 20 November 2026
- Persebaya Surabaya vs Java United F.C Saturday 21 November 2026
- Persik Kediri vs PSIM Yogyakarta Saturday 21 November 2026
- Bhayangkara vs Persijap Saturday 21 November 2026
- PSM vs Persija Saturday 21 November 2026
- Isenmulang Kalteng F.C. vs Borneo Sunday 22 November 2026
Arema vs Persebaya Surabaya: questions and answers
When is Arema vs Persebaya Surabaya?
Arema vs Persebaya Surabaya is on Sunday 29 November 2026, kick-off 08:30 UTC, in Liga 1 Indonesia Gameweek 11.
Where is Arema vs Persebaya Surabaya played?
At Stadion Kanjuruhan, Kepanjen, Arema's home ground.
Who will win Arema vs Persebaya Surabaya?
It is close: Arema 35%, draw 26%, Persebaya Surabaya 39%. Our prediction is Arema 1-1 Persebaya Surabaya.
Who is the player to watch in Arema vs Persebaya Surabaya?
Yann Mabella of Persebaya Surabaya: a poacher with a Moneyball Score of 11 against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Arema vs Persebaya Surabaya?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.9 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 56%.
Tags
Moneyball is a football statistics site. No model predicts football reliably: every figure is an estimate.