Arsenal vs Leeds United Prediction and Betting Tips | Premier League Gameweek 6
Premier League · Saturday 10 October 2026 · updated 2026-10-10
Arsenal welcome Leeds United to Emirates Stadium in London in Premier League Gameweek 6 action on Saturday 10 October 2026.
Arsenal have played 5 matches in the Premier League this season, scoring 1.6 and conceding 0.8 goals a game and winning 80% of them. At home they average 2.5 goals scored and 0.5 conceded over 2 matches, with a 50% win rate. Leeds United have played 5 matches in the Premier League this season, scoring 1.4 and conceding 0.6 goals a game and winning 40% of them. Away from home they average 1.0 goals scored and 0.5 conceded over 2 matches, with a 50% win rate.
On the bookmakers' prices, with their margin taken out, Arsenal are clear favourites at 68%, with the draw at 20% and Leeds United at 12%.
The odds
Decimal odds; the percentages are the chances the prices imply once the bookmaker's margin (10.8% on this market) is taken out. The main Asian handicap is Arsenal -1.25 at 1.83, Leeds United at 2.07. The main goals line is 2.75: over 1.86, under 2.02, which gives over 52%.
Arsenal: form and key numbers
In style Arsenal keep the ball, press high, are strong in the air.
- Expected goals: 1.79 a match created, 0.92 conceded (goals minus xG: -0.9).
- Shots: 12.8 a match, 4.8 on target.
- Possession: 59.4% on average.
- Clean sheets: 60% of matches (33% at home).
- Both teams scored in 20% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.0 a match.
- Discipline: 1.4 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.87.
Leeds United: form and key numbers
In style Leeds United are happy without the ball, play long and direct, are strong in the air.
- Expected goals: 1.44 a match created, 1.39 conceded (goals minus xG: -0.2).
- Shots: 12.2 a match, 3.6 on target.
- Possession: 45.0% on average.
- Clean sheets: 40% of matches (50% away).
- Both teams scored in 60% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.4 a match.
- Discipline: 1.4 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.91.
Arsenal vs Leeds United: season averages side by side
| Arsenal | Per match | Leeds United |
|---|---|---|
| 1.79 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.44 |
| 0.92 | xG conceded | 1.39 |
| 1.60 | Goals | 1.40 |
| 12.8 | Shots | 12.2 |
| 4.8 | Shots on target | 3.6 |
| 1.6 | Big chances missed | 1.4 |
| 65.8 | Pressure share % | 41.0 |
| 11.6 | Tackles | 17.8 |
| 10.0 | Fouls | 10.6 |
| 1.4 | Yellow cards | 1.4 |
Season averages per match from Sportmonks, over 5 and 5 measured matches.
Arsenal vs Leeds United: head-to-head stats and key numbers
- Arsenal have won 2, drawn 0 and lost 0 of the last 2 meetings in our data.
- Goals in those games: Arsenal 9, Leeds United 0 - 4.5 a match.
- The most recent meeting finished Leeds United 0-4 Arsenal (January 31st 2026).
Head to head
In their last 2 meetings Arsenal won 2, drew 0 and lost 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 31 Jan 2026 | Leeds United | 0 – 4 | Arsenal |
| 23 Aug 2025 | Arsenal | 5 – 0 | Leeds United |
Players to watch
Arsenal
- Declan Rice CMF · Playmaker · Moneyball Score 68 · Ball circulator, Long passer (top 5% of his position)
- Martin Ødegaard AMF · Creator · Moneyball Score 65 · Press-resistant, Creator (top 1% of his position)
Leeds United
- James Trafford GK · Shot-stopper · Moneyball Score 73 · Long passer, Shot-stopper (top 13% of his position)
- Tarik Muharemović CB · Box defender · Moneyball Score 69 · Reads the game, Box defender (top 6% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Dominic Calvert-Lewin
Dominic Calvert-Lewin, 29 · Leeds United · CF · Target man · Moneyball Score 67
Dominic Calvert-Lewin, 29, plays as a centre-forward for Leeds United in the Premier League. Strongest for his role in aerial duels won and shots on target. Weakest in key passes. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average centre-forward, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- ST · Centre-forward Natural, 67
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Aerial duels won | 5.13 / 90 | 97% |
| Shots on target | 64% | 94% |
| Shot quality (xG per shot) | 0.22 xG/shot | 88% |
| Duels won | 6.20 / 90 | 83% |
| Goals | 0.64 / 90 | 73% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★½ Target man Centre-forward
- ★★★★ Poacher Centre-forward
- ★★★ Complete forward Centre-forward
Scout's notes: Dominant in the air, Accurate shooter, Takes high-quality shots.
- What Dominic Calvert-Lewin is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Dominic Calvert-Lewin's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Arsenal vs Leeds United prediction
Arsenal should have more of the ball, with Leeds United likely to sit in a compact block and look to break; both sides are a threat in the air and from set pieces. Moneyball's model expects about 2.5 goals - 1.44 for Arsenal and 1.01 for Leeds United - with over 2.5 goals at 44% and both teams scoring at 49%. Arsenal have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: Arsenal 1-0 Leeds United
The full model, every line of this match, in the Match Centre
Arsenal vs Leeds United betting tips
- Tip 1: Arsenal to win 68% on the bookmakers' prices, with their margin taken out
- Tip 2: Under 2.5 goals 56% by the model, 2.45 goals expected
- Tip 3: Under 4.5 cards the two sides average 2.8 cards a match between them
- Tip 4: Over 8.5 corners 9.4 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
Moneyball's pick
The Dixon-Coles and xG model prices every line of this match: the win, draw and loss probabilities, fair odds and the expected value of each handicap and goals line. This match is one of the free picks of its schedule.
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- Sunderland vs Brighton & Hove Albion Saturday 10 October 2026
- Manchester United vs Tottenham Hotspur Sunday 11 October 2026
- Crystal Palace vs Nottingham Forest Sunday 11 October 2026
Arsenal vs Leeds United: questions and answers
When is Arsenal vs Leeds United?
Arsenal vs Leeds United is on Saturday 10 October 2026, in Premier League Gameweek 6.
Where is Arsenal vs Leeds United played?
At Emirates Stadium, London, Arsenal's home ground.
Who will win Arsenal vs Leeds United?
Arsenal are the favourites: Arsenal 68%, draw 20%, Leeds United 12%. Our prediction is Arsenal 1-0 Leeds United.
Who is the player to watch in Arsenal vs Leeds United?
Dominic Calvert-Lewin of Leeds United: a target man with a Moneyball Score of 67 against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Arsenal vs Leeds United?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.5 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 44%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.