Leeds United vs Coventry City Prediction and Stats | Premier League Gameweek 12
Premier League · Saturday 28 November 2026 · 15:00 UTC · Elland Road, Leeds · updated 2026-11-14
Leeds United welcome Coventry City to Elland Road in Leeds in Premier League Gameweek 12 action on Saturday 28 November 2026, kick-off 15:00 UTC.
Leeds United have played 10 matches in the Premier League this season, scoring 1.0 and conceding 0.8 goals a game and winning 30% of them. At home they average 1.4 goals scored and 0.6 conceded over 5 matches, with a 67% win rate. Coventry City have played 10 matches in the Premier League this season, scoring 1.0 and conceding 1.9 goals a game and winning 30% of them. Away from home they average 0.6 goals scored and 2.0 conceded over 5 matches, with a 33% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, Leeds United are narrow favourites at 56%, with the draw at 26% and Coventry City at 18%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Leeds United 1.64, Coventry City 0.82.
- Over 2.5 goals: 44% · both teams to score: 46%.
- Most likely score: 2–0 (11%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (10 and 10 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model.
Leeds United: form and key numbers
In style Leeds United play long and direct, are strong in the air.
- Expected goals: 1.35 a match created, 1.26 conceded (goals minus xG: -3.5).
- Shots: 12.0 a match, 3.7 on target.
- Possession: 47.2% on average.
- Clean sheets: 40% of matches (50% at home).
- Both teams scored in 50% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.3 a match.
- Discipline: 1.9 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.87.
Coventry City: form and key numbers
In style Coventry City are happy without the ball, play long and direct, cross a lot.
- Expected goals: 0.97 a match created, 1.63 conceded (goals minus xG: +0.3).
- Shots: 11.2 a match, 3.3 on target.
- Possession: 39.3% on average.
- Clean sheets: 10% of matches (100% away).
- Both teams scored in 40% of their matches.
- Corners: 3.6 a match.
- Discipline: 1.1 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.68.
Leeds United vs Coventry City: season averages side by side
| Leeds United | Per match this season | Coventry City |
|---|---|---|
| 10 | Matches | 10 |
| 1.0 | Goals scored | 1.0 |
| 0.8 | Goals conceded | 1.9 |
| 1.35 | Expected goals (xG) | 0.97 |
| 1.26 | xG conceded | 1.63 |
| 12.0 | Shots | 11.2 |
| 3.7 | On target | 3.3 |
| 47.2 | Possession % | 39.3 |
| 40% | Clean sheets % | 10% |
| 50% | Both teams scored % | 40% |
| 4.3 | Corners | 3.6 |
| 1.9 | Yellow cards | 1.1 |
| 6.87 | Average rating | 6.68 |
Players to watch
Leeds United
- James Trafford GK · Sweeper keeper · Moneyball Score 77 · Box defender, Long passer (top 1% of his position)
- Gabriel Gudmundsson LB · Defensive full-back · Moneyball Score 63 · Dribbler, Crosser (top 3% of his position)
Coventry City
- Bobby Thomas CB · Box defender · Moneyball Score 56 · Box defender, Dominant in the air (top 2% of his position)
- Milan van Ewijk RB · Attacking full-back · Moneyball Score 56 · Reads the game, Chance creator (top 4% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Tarik Muharemović
Tarik Muharemović, 23 · Leeds United · CB · Box defender · Moneyball Score 67
Tarik Muharemović, 23, plays as a centre-back for Leeds United in the Premier League. Strongest for his role in clearances and aerial duels won. Weakest in tackles. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every centre-back in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average centre-back, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- CB · Centre-back Natural, 67
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Clearances | 8.50 / 90 | 99% |
| Aerial duels won | 4.20 / 90 | 97% |
| Duels won | 6.20 / 90 | 93% |
| Fouls committed | 0.50 / 90 | 90% |
| Long balls | 3.40 / 90 | 85% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★ Box defender Centre-back
- ★★★½ Stopper Centre-back
- ★★★ Ball-playing centre-back Centre-back
Scout's notes: Box defender, Dominant in the air, Duel winner.
- What Tarik Muharemović is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Tarik Muharemović's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Leeds United vs Coventry City prediction
Leeds United should have more of the ball, with Coventry City likely to sit in a compact block and look to break; both sides are a threat in the air and from set pieces. Moneyball's model expects about 2.5 goals - 1.64 for Leeds United and 0.82 for Coventry City - with over 2.5 goals at 44% and both teams scoring at 46%. Leeds United have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: Leeds United 2-0 Coventry City
Leeds United vs Coventry City: what the numbers say
- 1. Leeds United win, the likeliest result 56% on Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers
- 2. 2 goals or fewer 56% by the model, 2.46 goals expected
- 3. 4 or more cards the two sides average 4.0 cards a match between them
- 4. 10 corners or fewer 7.9 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties.
The full analysis
Moneyball reads every match in full: win, draw and loss, the most likely scores, goals and both teams to score, with the players who decide it.
More Premier League previews
- Manchester City vs Fulham Saturday 21 November 2026
- Tottenham Hotspur vs Ipswich Town Saturday 21 November 2026
- Coventry City vs Crystal Palace Saturday 21 November 2026
- Chelsea vs Leeds United Saturday 21 November 2026
- Aston Villa vs Sunderland Saturday 21 November 2026
- AFC Bournemouth vs Nottingham Forest Saturday 21 November 2026
- Newcastle United vs Arsenal Saturday 21 November 2026
- Hull City vs Brighton & Hove Albion Sunday 22 November 2026
Leeds United vs Coventry City: questions and answers
When is Leeds United vs Coventry City?
Leeds United vs Coventry City is on Saturday 28 November 2026, kick-off 15:00 UTC, in Premier League Gameweek 12.
Where is Leeds United vs Coventry City played?
At Elland Road, Leeds, Leeds United's home ground.
Who will win Leeds United vs Coventry City?
Leeds United are the favourites: Leeds United 56%, draw 26%, Coventry City 18%. Our prediction is Leeds United 2-0 Coventry City.
Who is the player to watch in Leeds United vs Coventry City?
Tarik Muharemović of Leeds United: a box defender with a Moneyball Score of 67 against every centre-back in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Leeds United vs Coventry City?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.5 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 44%.
Tags
Moneyball is a football statistics site. No model predicts football reliably: every figure is an estimate.