Arsenal vs Manchester City Prediction and Stats | Premier League Gameweek 12
Premier League · Sunday 29 November 2026 · 16:30 UTC · Emirates Stadium, London · updated 2026-11-15
Arsenal welcome Manchester City to Emirates Stadium in London in Premier League Gameweek 12 action on Sunday 29 November 2026, kick-off 16:30 UTC.
Arsenal have played 10 matches in the Premier League this season, scoring 1.5 and conceding 0.5 goals a game and winning 90% of them. At home they average 2.0 goals scored and 0.4 conceded over 5 matches, with a 56% win rate. Manchester City have played 10 matches in the Premier League this season, scoring 2.1 and conceding 1.3 goals a game and winning 70% of them. Away from home they average 2.0 goals scored and 1.2 conceded over 5 matches, with a 43% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, Arsenal are narrow favourites at 47%, with the draw at 27% and Manchester City at 26%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Arsenal 1.55, Manchester City 1.09.
- Over 2.5 goals: 49% · both teams to score: 53%.
- Most likely score: 2–1 (9%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (10 and 10 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model.
Arsenal: form and key numbers
In style Arsenal keep the ball, press high, are strong in the air.
- Expected goals: 1.73 a match created, 0.89 conceded (goals minus xG: -2.3).
- Shots: 13.8 a match, 4.8 on target.
- Possession: 59.8% on average.
- Clean sheets: 70% of matches (43% at home).
- Both teams scored in 20% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.6 a match.
- Discipline: 1.4 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.95.
Manchester City: form and key numbers
In style Manchester City keep the ball, press high, cross a lot.
- Expected goals: 1.97 a match created, 1.09 conceded (goals minus xG: +1.3).
- Shots: 15.0 a match, 5.4 on target.
- Possession: 65.5% on average.
- Clean sheets: 30% of matches (67% away).
- Both teams scored in 60% of their matches.
- Corners: 6.1 a match.
- Discipline: 1.3 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.96.
Arsenal vs Manchester City: season averages side by side
| Arsenal | Per match this season | Manchester City |
|---|---|---|
| 10 | Matches | 10 |
| 1.5 | Goals scored | 2.1 |
| 0.5 | Goals conceded | 1.3 |
| 1.73 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.97 |
| 0.89 | xG conceded | 1.09 |
| 13.8 | Shots | 15.0 |
| 4.8 | On target | 5.4 |
| 59.8 | Possession % | 65.5 |
| 70% | Clean sheets % | 30% |
| 20% | Both teams scored % | 60% |
| 5.6 | Corners | 6.1 |
| 1.4 | Yellow cards | 1.3 |
| 6.95 | Average rating | 6.96 |
Players to watch
Arsenal
- Declan Rice CMF · Playmaker · Moneyball Score 71 · Ball circulator, Secure passer (top 1% of his position)
- Noni Madueke RWF · Classic winger · Moneyball Score 68 · Chance creator, Dribbler (top 6% of his position)
Manchester City
- Erling Haaland CF · Poacher · Moneyball Score 72 · High shot volume, Gets into scoring positions (top 3% of his position)
- Elliot Anderson DMF · Ball-winner · Moneyball Score 72 · Ball-winner, Duel winner (top 1% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Martin Ødegaard
Martin Ødegaard, 27 · Arsenal · AMF · Creator · Moneyball Score 73
Martin Ødegaard, 27, plays as an attacking midfielder for Arsenal in the Premier League. Strongest for his role in through balls and key passes. Weakest in successful dribbles. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every attacking midfielder in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average attacking midfielder, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- CAM · Attacking midfielder Natural, 73
- CM · Central midfielder Natural, 70
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Through balls | 0.00 / 90 | 100% |
| Key passes | 2.39 / 90 | 97% |
| Expected assists (est.) | 0.28 / 90 | 96% |
| Big chances created | 0.43 / 90 | 94% |
| Dispossessed | 0.54 / 90 | 94% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★★ Playmaker Central midfielder
- ★★★★★ Creator Attacking midfielder
- ★★★½ Link-up forward Second striker
Scout's notes: Through-ball threat, Chance creator, Creator.
- What Martin Ødegaard is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Martin Ødegaard's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Arsenal vs Manchester City prediction
Manchester City should have more of the ball; Arsenal are a threat in the air and from set pieces; Manchester City work the ball wide and cross. Moneyball's model expects about 2.6 goals - 1.55 for Arsenal and 1.09 for Manchester City - with over 2.5 goals at 49% and both teams scoring at 53%. Arsenal have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: Arsenal 2-1 Manchester City
Arsenal vs Manchester City: what the numbers say
- 1. Arsenal unbeaten (win or draw) 74% between them
- 2. 2 or more goals 2.64 goals expected; 2.5 is close to a coin toss (49%)
- 3. 4 cards or fewer the two sides average 3.7 cards a match between them
- 4. 10 or more corners 11.7 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties.
The full analysis
Moneyball reads every match in full: win, draw and loss, the most likely scores, goals and both teams to score, with the players who decide it.
More Premier League previews
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- Chelsea vs Leeds United Saturday 21 November 2026
- Aston Villa vs Sunderland Saturday 21 November 2026
- AFC Bournemouth vs Nottingham Forest Saturday 21 November 2026
- Newcastle United vs Arsenal Saturday 21 November 2026
- Hull City vs Brighton & Hove Albion Sunday 22 November 2026
Arsenal vs Manchester City: questions and answers
When is Arsenal vs Manchester City?
Arsenal vs Manchester City is on Sunday 29 November 2026, kick-off 16:30 UTC, in Premier League Gameweek 12.
Where is Arsenal vs Manchester City played?
At Emirates Stadium, London, Arsenal's home ground.
Who will win Arsenal vs Manchester City?
Arsenal are the favourites: Arsenal 47%, draw 27%, Manchester City 26%. Our prediction is Arsenal 2-1 Manchester City.
Who is the player to watch in Arsenal vs Manchester City?
Martin Ødegaard of Arsenal: a creator with a Moneyball Score of 73 against every attacking midfielder in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Arsenal vs Manchester City?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.6 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 49%.
Tags
Moneyball is a football statistics site. No model predicts football reliably: every figure is an estimate.