Aston Villa vs Brentford Prediction and Betting Tips | Premier League Gameweek 6
Premier League · Saturday 10 October 2026 · updated 2026-10-10
Aston Villa welcome Brentford to Villa Park in Birmingham in Premier League Gameweek 6 action on Saturday 10 October 2026.
Aston Villa have played 5 matches in the Premier League this season, scoring 0.8 and conceding 1.8 goals a game and winning 20% of them. At home they average 0.5 goals scored and 1.5 conceded over 2 matches, with a 0% win rate. Brentford have played 5 matches in the Premier League this season, scoring 2.0 and conceding 0.8 goals a game and winning 40% of them. Away from home they average 1.5 goals scored and 1.5 conceded over 2 matches, with a 0% win rate.
On the bookmakers' prices, with their margin taken out, there is little to separate them: Aston Villa 36%, the draw 27%, Brentford 37%.
The odds
Decimal odds; the percentages are the chances the prices imply once the bookmaker's margin (10.2% on this market) is taken out. The main Asian handicap is Aston Villa 0 at 1.99, Brentford at 1.92. The main goals line is 2.75: over 1.93, under 1.95, which gives over 50%.
Aston Villa: form and key numbers
In style Aston Villa are happy without the ball.
- Expected goals: 0.93 a match created, 1.77 conceded (goals minus xG: -0.7).
- Shots: 9.6 a match, 2.4 on target.
- Possession: 46.0% on average.
- Clean sheets: 20% of matches (0% at home).
- Both teams scored in 40% of their matches.
- Corners: 3.0 a match.
- Discipline: 2.0 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.62.
Brentford: form and key numbers
In style Brentford are happy without the ball, play long and direct, cross a lot.
- Expected goals: 1.96 a match created, 1.38 conceded (goals minus xG: +0.2).
- Shots: 16.2 a match, 4.6 on target.
- Possession: 45.2% on average.
- Clean sheets: 40% of matches (0% away).
- Both teams scored in 60% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.4 a match.
- Discipline: 2.2 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.89.
Aston Villa vs Brentford: season averages side by side
| Aston Villa | Per match | Brentford |
|---|---|---|
| 0.93 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.96 |
| 1.77 | xG conceded | 1.38 |
| 0.80 | Goals | 2.00 |
| 9.6 | Shots | 16.2 |
| 2.4 | Shots on target | 4.6 |
| 0.8 | Big chances missed | 1.6 |
| 32.4 | Pressure share % | 53.1 |
| 16.2 | Tackles | 16.2 |
| 11.4 | Fouls | 14.4 |
| 2.0 | Yellow cards | 2.2 |
Season averages per match from Sportmonks, over 5 and 5 measured matches.
Aston Villa vs Brentford: head-to-head stats and key numbers
- Aston Villa have won 2, drawn 0 and lost 2 of the last 4 meetings in our data.
- Goals in those games: Aston Villa 4, Brentford 3 - 1.8 a match.
- The most recent meeting finished Aston Villa 0-1 Brentford (February 1st 2026).
Head to head
In their last 4 meetings Aston Villa won 2, drew 0 and lost 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Feb 2026 | Aston Villa | 0 – 1 | Brentford |
| 23 Aug 2025 | Brentford | 1 – 0 | Aston Villa |
| 8 Mar 2025 | Brentford | 0 – 1 | Aston Villa |
| 4 Dec 2024 | Aston Villa | 3 – 1 | Brentford |
Players to watch
Aston Villa
- Zion Suzuki GK · Sweeper keeper · Moneyball Score 60 · Box defender, Dominant in the air (top 6% of his position)
- Ross Barkley CMF · Box-to-box midfielder · Moneyball Score 58 · Dribbler, Ball circulator (top 17% of his position)
Brentford
- Caoimhín Kelleher GK · Shot-stopper · Moneyball Score 69 · Long passer, Dominant in the air (top 24% of his position)
- Mamadou Sangaré CMF · Ball-winning midfielder · Moneyball Score 56 · Ball-winner, Dribbler (top 4% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Vitaly Janelt
Vitaly Janelt, 28 · Brentford · DMF · Ball-winner · Moneyball Score 59
Vitaly Janelt, 28, plays as a defensive midfielder for Brentford in the Premier League. Strongest for his role in interceptions and tackles. Weakest in dribbled past. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every defensive midfielder in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average defensive midfielder, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- DM · Defensive midfielder Natural, 59
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Interceptions | 3.20 / 90 | 98% |
| Tackles | 3.40 / 90 | 95% |
| Blocked shots | 0.80 / 90 | 89% |
| Duels won | 4.80 / 90 | 73% |
| Long balls | 2.20 / 90 | 58% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★½ Ball-winning midfielder Central midfielder
- ★★★★½ Ball-winner Defensive midfielder
- ★★★½ Anchor Defensive midfielder
Scout's notes: Reads the game, Ball-winner, Blocks shots.
- What Vitaly Janelt is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Vitaly Janelt's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Aston Villa vs Brentford prediction
Aston Villa should have more of the ball; Brentford are a threat in the air and from set pieces. Moneyball's model expects about 2.9 goals - 1.06 for Aston Villa and 1.80 for Brentford - with over 2.5 goals at 55% and both teams scoring at 55%. Little separates the sides on the numbers, and a draw is the single likeliest result.
Prediction: Aston Villa 1-1 Brentford
The full model, every line of this match, in the Match Centre
Aston Villa vs Brentford betting tips
- Tip 1: Draw or either side by one goal is the shape of it - avoid the result market no side above 37%
- Tip 2: Over 1.5 goals 2.87 goals expected; 2.5 is close to a coin toss (55%)
- Tip 3: Both teams to score: yes 55% by the model
- Tip 4: Over 3.5 cards the two sides average 5.2 cards a match between them
- Tip 5: Under 10.5 corners 7.4 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
Moneyball's pick
The Dixon-Coles and xG model prices every line of this match: the win, draw and loss probabilities, fair odds and the expected value of each handicap and goals line. This match is one of the free picks of its schedule.
Open Aston Villa vs Brentford in the Match Centre Follow it live
More Premier League previews
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- Manchester United vs Tottenham Hotspur Sunday 11 October 2026
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Aston Villa vs Brentford: questions and answers
When is Aston Villa vs Brentford?
Aston Villa vs Brentford is on Saturday 10 October 2026, in Premier League Gameweek 6.
Where is Aston Villa vs Brentford played?
At Villa Park, Birmingham, Aston Villa's home ground.
Who will win Aston Villa vs Brentford?
It is close: Aston Villa 36%, draw 27%, Brentford 37%. Our prediction is Aston Villa 1-1 Brentford.
Who is the player to watch in Aston Villa vs Brentford?
Vitaly Janelt of Brentford: a ball-winner with a Moneyball Score of 59 against every defensive midfielder in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Aston Villa vs Brentford?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.9 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 55%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.