Ipswich Town vs Aston Villa Prediction and Stats | Premier League Gameweek 12
Premier League · Saturday 28 November 2026 · 17:30 UTC · Portman Road Stadium, Ipswich · updated 2026-11-14
Ipswich Town welcome Aston Villa to Portman Road Stadium in Ipswich in Premier League Gameweek 12 action on Saturday 28 November 2026, kick-off 17:30 UTC.
Ipswich Town have played 10 matches in the Premier League this season, scoring 1.5 and conceding 2.0 goals a game and winning 30% of them. At home they average 1.2 goals scored and 1.4 conceded over 5 matches, with a 67% win rate. Aston Villa have played 10 matches in the Premier League this season, scoring 1.4 and conceding 1.7 goals a game and winning 30% of them. Away from home they average 1.6 goals scored and 2.0 conceded over 5 matches, with a 67% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, Ipswich Town are narrow favourites at 43%, with the draw at 23% and Aston Villa at 33%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Ipswich Town 1.85, Aston Villa 1.61.
- Over 2.5 goals: 67% · both teams to score: 68%.
- Most likely score: 2–1 (9%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (10 and 10 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model.
Ipswich Town: form and key numbers
- Expected goals: 1.21 a match created, 1.81 conceded (goals minus xG: +2.9).
- Shots: 10.9 a match, 3.9 on target.
- Possession: 46.9% on average.
- Clean sheets: 0% of matches (0% at home).
- Both teams scored in 80% of their matches.
- Corners: 2.8 a match.
- Discipline: 1.9 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.73.
Aston Villa: form and key numbers
In style Aston Villa are happy without the ball, take players on.
- Expected goals: 1.37 a match created, 1.95 conceded (goals minus xG: +0.3).
- Shots: 11.9 a match, 3.3 on target.
- Possession: 45.7% on average.
- Clean sheets: 20% of matches (100% away).
- Both teams scored in 60% of their matches.
- Corners: 3.4 a match.
- Discipline: 2.0 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.72.
Ipswich Town vs Aston Villa: season averages side by side
| Ipswich Town | Per match this season | Aston Villa |
|---|---|---|
| 10 | Matches | 10 |
| 1.5 | Goals scored | 1.4 |
| 2.0 | Goals conceded | 1.7 |
| 1.21 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.37 |
| 1.81 | xG conceded | 1.95 |
| 10.9 | Shots | 11.9 |
| 3.9 | On target | 3.3 |
| 46.9 | Possession % | 45.7 |
| 0% | Clean sheets % | 20% |
| 80% | Both teams scored % | 60% |
| 2.8 | Corners | 3.4 |
| 1.9 | Yellow cards | 2.0 |
| 6.73 | Average rating | 6.72 |
Players to watch
Ipswich Town
- Dara O'Shea CB · Stopper · Moneyball Score 63 · Dominant in the air, Duel winner (top 4% of his position)
- Kjell Scherpen GK · Sweeper keeper · Moneyball Score 61 · Dominant in the air, Box defender (top 6% of his position)
Aston Villa
- Zion Suzuki GK · Sweeper keeper · Moneyball Score 79 · Box defender, Shot-stopper (top 6% of his position)
- Alysson RWF · Inside forward · Moneyball Score 68 · Dribbler, Big-chance creator (top 8% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Julio Enciso
Julio Enciso, 22 · Ipswich Town · AMF · Dribbling playmaker · Moneyball Score 65
Julio Enciso, 22, plays as an attacking midfielder for Ipswich Town in the Premier League. Strongest for his role in through balls and shots. Weakest in dispossessed. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every attacking midfielder in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average attacking midfielder, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- CAM · Attacking midfielder Natural, 65
- LW · Winger Accomplished, 62
- SS · Second striker Accomplished, 62
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Through balls | 0.33 / 90 | 96% |
| Shots | 3.47 / 90 | 95% |
| Successful dribbles | 2.17 / 90 | 92% |
| Fouls won | 1.85 / 90 | 78% |
| Big chances created | 0.43 / 90 | 76% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★½ Dribbling forward Second striker
- ★★★★ Pressing forward Centre-forward
- ★★★½ Inside forward Winger
Scout's notes: Through-ball threat, High shot volume, Dribbler.
- What Julio Enciso is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Julio Enciso's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Ipswich Town vs Aston Villa prediction
Ipswich Town should have more of the ball; Aston Villa like to take players on. Moneyball's model expects about 3.5 goals - 1.85 for Ipswich Town and 1.61 for Aston Villa - with over 2.5 goals at 67% and both teams scoring at 68%. Ipswich Town have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: Ipswich Town 2-1 Aston Villa
Ipswich Town vs Aston Villa: what the numbers say
- 1. Ipswich Town unbeaten (win or draw) 67% between them
- 2. 3 or more goals 67% by the model, 3.46 goals expected
- 3. Both teams to score: yes 68% by the model
- 4. 4 or more cards the two sides average 5.9 cards a match between them
- 5. 10 corners or fewer 6.2 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties.
The full analysis
Moneyball reads every match in full: win, draw and loss, the most likely scores, goals and both teams to score, with the players who decide it.
More Premier League previews
- Manchester City vs Fulham Saturday 21 November 2026
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- Coventry City vs Crystal Palace Saturday 21 November 2026
- Chelsea vs Leeds United Saturday 21 November 2026
- Aston Villa vs Sunderland Saturday 21 November 2026
- AFC Bournemouth vs Nottingham Forest Saturday 21 November 2026
- Newcastle United vs Arsenal Saturday 21 November 2026
- Hull City vs Brighton & Hove Albion Sunday 22 November 2026
Ipswich Town vs Aston Villa: questions and answers
When is Ipswich Town vs Aston Villa?
Ipswich Town vs Aston Villa is on Saturday 28 November 2026, kick-off 17:30 UTC, in Premier League Gameweek 12.
Where is Ipswich Town vs Aston Villa played?
At Portman Road Stadium, Ipswich, Ipswich Town's home ground.
Who will win Ipswich Town vs Aston Villa?
Ipswich Town are the favourites: Ipswich Town 43%, draw 23%, Aston Villa 33%. Our prediction is Ipswich Town 2-1 Aston Villa.
Who is the player to watch in Ipswich Town vs Aston Villa?
Julio Enciso of Ipswich Town: a dribbling playmaker with a Moneyball Score of 65 against every attacking midfielder in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Ipswich Town vs Aston Villa?
Moneyball's model expects about 3.5 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 67%.
Tags
Moneyball is a football statistics site. No model predicts football reliably: every figure is an estimate.