Manchester United vs Brentford Prediction and Stats | Premier League Gameweek 12
Premier League · Saturday 28 November 2026 · 15:00 UTC · Old Trafford, Manchester · updated 2026-11-14
Manchester United welcome Brentford to Old Trafford in Manchester in Premier League Gameweek 12 action on Saturday 28 November 2026, kick-off 15:00 UTC.
Manchester United have played 10 matches in the Premier League this season, scoring 1.4 and conceding 1.9 goals a game and winning 10% of them. At home they average 2.0 goals scored and 2.2 conceded over 5 matches, with a 100% win rate. Brentford have played 10 matches in the Premier League this season, scoring 1.6 and conceding 1.1 goals a game and winning 30% of them. Away from home they average 1.2 goals scored and 1.6 conceded over 5 matches, with a 0% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, there is little to separate them: Manchester United 39%, the draw 24%, Brentford 37%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Manchester United 1.67, Brentford 1.63.
- Over 2.5 goals: 64% · both teams to score: 66%.
- Most likely score: 2–1 (8%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (10 and 10 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model.
Manchester United: form and key numbers
In style Manchester United keep the ball, press high, cross a lot.
- Expected goals: 1.76 a match created, 1.49 conceded (goals minus xG: -3.6).
- Shots: 19.3 a match, 5.4 on target.
- Possession: 55.0% on average.
- Clean sheets: 0% of matches (0% at home).
- Both teams scored in 60% of their matches.
- Corners: 6.3 a match.
- Discipline: 2.2 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.85.
Brentford: form and key numbers
In style Brentford are happy without the ball, play long and direct, are strong in the air.
- Expected goals: 1.58 a match created, 1.62 conceded (goals minus xG: +0.2).
- Shots: 13.1 a match, 3.6 on target.
- Possession: 43.8% on average.
- Clean sheets: 30% of matches (0% away).
- Both teams scored in 60% of their matches.
- Corners: 3.9 a match.
- Discipline: 2.3 yellow cards a match, 3.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.78.
Manchester United vs Brentford: season averages side by side
| Manchester United | Per match this season | Brentford |
|---|---|---|
| 10 | Matches | 10 |
| 1.4 | Goals scored | 1.6 |
| 1.9 | Goals conceded | 1.1 |
| 1.76 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.58 |
| 1.49 | xG conceded | 1.62 |
| 19.3 | Shots | 13.1 |
| 5.4 | On target | 3.6 |
| 55.0 | Possession % | 43.8 |
| 0% | Clean sheets % | 30% |
| 60% | Both teams scored % | 60% |
| 6.3 | Corners | 3.9 |
| 2.2 | Yellow cards | 2.3 |
| 6.85 | Average rating | 6.78 |
Players to watch
Manchester United
- Kobbie Mainoo CMF · Ball-winning midfielder · Moneyball Score 73 · Dribbler, Ball circulator (top 1% of his position)
- Youri Tielemans CMF · Playmaker · Moneyball Score 69 · Creator, Chance creator (top 2% of his position)
Brentford
- Caoimhín Kelleher GK · Shot-stopper · Moneyball Score 66 · Long passer, Box defender (top 8% of his position)
- Igor Thiago CF · Target man · Moneyball Score 64 · Takes high-quality shots, Dominant in the air (top 3% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Bruno Fernandes
Bruno Fernandes, 32 · Manchester United · AMF · Shadow striker · Moneyball Score 74
Bruno Fernandes, 32, plays as an attacking midfielder for Manchester United in the Premier League. Strongest for his role in key passes and shots. Weakest in successful dribbles. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every attacking midfielder in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average attacking midfielder, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- CAM · Attacking midfielder Natural, 74
- LW · Winger Accomplished, 71
- CM · Central midfielder Natural, 68
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Key passes | 2.56 / 90 | 96% |
| Shots | 3.44 / 90 | 96% |
| Expected goals | 0.42 / 90 | 94% |
| Expected assists (est.) | 0.29 / 90 | 92% |
| Dispossessed | 0.78 / 90 | 91% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★½ Shadow striker Attacking midfielder
- ★★★★½ Playmaker Central midfielder
- ★★★★½ Creative winger Winger
Scout's notes: Chance creator, High shot volume, Gets into scoring positions.
- What Bruno Fernandes is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Bruno Fernandes's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Manchester United vs Brentford prediction
Manchester United should have more of the ball, with Brentford likely to sit in a compact block and look to break; Manchester United work the ball wide and cross; Brentford are a threat in the air and from set pieces. Moneyball's model expects about 3.3 goals - 1.67 for Manchester United and 1.63 for Brentford - with over 2.5 goals at 64% and both teams scoring at 66%. Little separates the sides on the numbers, and a draw is the single likeliest result.
Prediction: Manchester United 1-1 Brentford
Manchester United vs Brentford: what the numbers say
- 1. A draw or either side by one goal is the likeliest shape no side above 39%
- 2. 3 or more goals 64% by the model, 3.29 goals expected
- 3. Both teams to score: yes 66% by the model
- 4. 4 or more cards the two sides average 8.5 cards a match between them
- 5. 9 or more corners 10.2 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties.
The full analysis
Moneyball reads every match in full: win, draw and loss, the most likely scores, goals and both teams to score, with the players who decide it.
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Manchester United vs Brentford: questions and answers
When is Manchester United vs Brentford?
Manchester United vs Brentford is on Saturday 28 November 2026, kick-off 15:00 UTC, in Premier League Gameweek 12.
Where is Manchester United vs Brentford played?
At Old Trafford, Manchester, Manchester United's home ground.
Who will win Manchester United vs Brentford?
It is close: Manchester United 39%, draw 24%, Brentford 37%. Our prediction is Manchester United 1-1 Brentford.
Who is the player to watch in Manchester United vs Brentford?
Bruno Fernandes of Manchester United: a shadow striker with a Moneyball Score of 74 against every attacking midfielder in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Manchester United vs Brentford?
Moneyball's model expects about 3.3 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 64%.
Tags
Moneyball is a football statistics site. No model predicts football reliably: every figure is an estimate.