Moneyball OddsDixon-Coles · xG fusion
Back to Moneyball Odds

Atlanta United 1-3 Cincinnati: Match Report, Goals, Stats and Ratings

Full time: Atlanta United 1-3 Cincinnati

Cincinnati won 3-1 away at Atlanta United in MLS on Saturday 10 October 2026. The goals: Kévin Denkey 52', Miguel Almirón 69', Tom Barlow 84', Kévin Denkey 90+7'.

How Cincinnati won it

Kévin Denkey put Cincinnati ahead in the 52nd minute, set up by Tom Barlow. Atlanta United levelled at 1-1 in the 69th minute through Miguel Almirón, set up by Breel Embolo. Tom Barlow made it 1-2 to Cincinnati in the 84th minute, set up by Kyle Smith. Kévin Denkey made it 1-3 to Cincinnati in the 90th minute (+7), set up by Ender Echenique.

It was 0-0 at half-time, and the second half changed the result.

Kévin Denkey scored twice.

The referee, F. Bazakos, showed 5 yellow cards: 2 to Atlanta United and 3 to Cincinnati.

Atlanta United: G. Martino, 4-3-3 · Cincinnati: P. Noonan, 3-5-2.

Moneyball's prediction against the result

Moneyball did not publish a pre-match estimate for this match, so there is nothing to mark it against.

Why it went this way

On the day the expected goals were 1.87 for Atlanta United and 1.84 for Cincinnati.

Cincinnati made more of their chances than the xG suggests, by about 1.2 goals.

Atlanta United had 6 shots on target, Cincinnati 4.

Cincinnati's goalkeeper made 5 saves.

Atlanta United had 56% of the ball, but Cincinnati took the points.

Where the two sides stood before this match

Atlanta United came into it with 31 MLS matches played, scoring 1.3 and conceding 1.7 a match, with 1.46 expected goals for and 1.57 against, and had won 26% of their matches.

Cincinnati came into it with 31 MLS matches played, scoring 2.1 and conceding 2.3 a match, with 1.81 expected goals for and 1.61 against, and had won 35% of their matches.

Atlanta United vs Cincinnati: the match in numbers

Atlanta UnitedMatch statisticsCincinnati
56%Ball possession44%
1.87Expected goals (xG)1.84
16Total shots13
6Shots on target4
2Big chances4
520Total passes398
83%Pass accuracy81%
5Corners4
8Fouls14
7Offsides1
11Tackles10
0Saves5
2Yellow cards3

Team statistics from Sportmonks.

Player ratings and man of the match

Man of the match: Kévin Denkey (Cincinnati), rated 8.7 by Sportmonks, with 2 goals.

Atlanta United

Cincinnati

The lowest-rated starter was Lucas Hoyos at 5.7. Ratings run from 0 to 10; around 7.0 is a solid match.

What comes next

Each preview has Moneyball's estimate for the next match, published before kick-off and marked against the result afterwards, as this one is.

Questions about Atlanta United vs Cincinnati

What was the score in Atlanta United vs Cincinnati?

Atlanta United 1-3 Cincinnati (half-time 0-0), MLS, Saturday 10 October 2026.

Who scored in Atlanta United vs Cincinnati?

Kévin Denkey 52', Miguel Almirón 69', Tom Barlow 84', Kévin Denkey 90+7'.

Did Moneyball predict Atlanta United vs Cincinnati correctly?

Moneyball did not publish a pre-match estimate for this match, so there is nothing to mark it against.

Who was man of the match in Atlanta United vs Cincinnati?

Kévin Denkey, rated 8.7 by Sportmonks.

Who refereed Atlanta United vs Cincinnati?

F. Bazakos.

Every match, before and after

Moneyball Odds writes a preview with its estimate before every match of Europe's top five leagues and the European cups, then marks it against the result, hits and misses alike.

Open Moneyball Odds Match Live All match reports

Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over.