New York City vs Atlanta United Prediction and Betting Tips
MLS · Wednesday 28 October 2026 · 23:30 UTC · Citi Field, Bronx · updated 2026-10-25
New York City welcome Atlanta United to Citi Field in Bronx in MLS action on Wednesday 28 October 2026, kick-off 23:30 UTC.
New York City have played 31 matches in MLS this season, scoring 1.4 and conceding 1.4 goals a game and winning 26% of them. At home they average 1.8 goals scored and 1.5 conceded over 15 matches, with a 50% win rate. Atlanta United have played 31 matches in MLS this season, scoring 1.3 and conceding 1.7 goals a game and winning 26% of them. Away from home they average 1.1 goals scored and 1.5 conceded over 15 matches, with a 50% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, New York City are narrow favourites at 50%, with the draw at 26% and Atlanta United at 25%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: New York City 1.68, Atlanta United 1.12.
- Over 2.5 goals: 53% · both teams to score: 55%.
- Most likely score: 2–1 (10%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (31 and 31 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
New York City: form and key numbers
In style New York City keep the ball.
- Expected goals: 1.51 a match created, 1.43 conceded (goals minus xG: -2.0).
- Shots: 11.6 a match, 4.6 on target.
- Possession: 54.0% on average.
- Clean sheets: 16% of matches (60% at home).
- Both teams scored in 68% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.2 a match.
- Discipline: 1.7 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.84.
Atlanta United: form and key numbers
- Expected goals: 1.46 a match created, 1.57 conceded (goals minus xG: -6.3).
- Shots: 13.1 a match, 4.0 on target.
- Possession: 50.8% on average.
- Clean sheets: 13% of matches (75% away).
- Both teams scored in 65% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.9 a match.
- Discipline: 2.2 yellow cards a match, 2.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.80.
New York City vs Atlanta United: season averages side by side
| New York City | Per match this season | Atlanta United |
|---|---|---|
| 31 | Matches | 31 |
| 1.4 | Goals scored | 1.3 |
| 1.4 | Goals conceded | 1.7 |
| 1.51 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.46 |
| 1.43 | xG conceded | 1.57 |
| 11.6 | Shots | 13.1 |
| 4.6 | On target | 4.0 |
| 54.0 | Possession % | 50.8 |
| 16% | Clean sheets % | 13% |
| 68% | Both teams scored % | 65% |
| 4.2 | Corners | 4.9 |
| 1.7 | Yellow cards | 2.2 |
| 6.84 | Average rating | 6.80 |
Players to watch
New York City
- James Sands DMF · Anchor · Moneyball Score 42 · Press-resistant, Hard to dribble past (top 1% of his position)
- Tayvon Gray RB · Inverted full-back · Moneyball Score 38 · Hard to dribble past, Creator (top 22% of his position)
Atlanta United
- Steven Alzate CMF · Box-to-box midfielder · Moneyball Score 36 · Secure passer, Dribbler (top 20% of his position)
- Mauricio Amaro CMF · Ball-winning midfielder · Moneyball Score 33 · Reads the game, Press-resistant (top 5% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Miguel Almirón
Miguel Almirón, 32 · Atlanta United · RWF · Creative winger · Moneyball Score 43
Miguel Almirón, 32, plays as a winger for Atlanta United in the MLS. Strongest for his role in expected goals and key passes. Weakest in dispossessed. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every winger in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average winger, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- LW · Winger Natural, 43
- RW · Winger Natural, 43
- LM · Wide midfielder Accomplished, 39
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Expected goals | 0.39 / 90 | 78% |
| Key passes | 2.48 / 90 | 69% |
| Expected assists (est.) | 0.29 / 90 | 67% |
| Big chances created | 0.44 / 90 | 64% |
| Accurate crosses | 1.06 / 90 | 63% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★½ Creative winger Winger
- ★★★ Wide playmaker Wide midfielder
- ★★★ Link-up forward Second striker
- What Miguel Almirón is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Miguel Almirón's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
New York City vs Atlanta United prediction
New York City should have more of the ball. Moneyball's model expects about 2.8 goals - 1.68 for New York City and 1.12 for Atlanta United - with over 2.5 goals at 53% and both teams scoring at 55%. New York City have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: New York City 2-1 Atlanta United
New York City vs Atlanta United betting tips
- Tip 1: New York City win or draw (double chance) 75% between them
- Tip 2: Over 1.5 goals 2.79 goals expected; 2.5 is close to a coin toss (53%)
- Tip 3: Both teams to score: yes 55% by the model
- Tip 4: Over 3.5 cards the two sides average 6.9 cards a match between them
- Tip 5: Over 8.5 corners 9.1 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
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New York City vs Atlanta United: questions and answers
When is New York City vs Atlanta United?
New York City vs Atlanta United is on Wednesday 28 October 2026, kick-off 23:30 UTC, in MLS.
Where is New York City vs Atlanta United played?
At Citi Field, Bronx, New York City's home ground.
Who will win New York City vs Atlanta United?
New York City are the favourites: New York City 50%, draw 26%, Atlanta United 25%. Our prediction is New York City 2-1 Atlanta United.
Who is the player to watch in New York City vs Atlanta United?
Miguel Almirón of Atlanta United: a creative winger with a Moneyball Score of 43 against every winger in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in New York City vs Atlanta United?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.8 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 53%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.