Inter Miami vs Cincinnati Prediction and Betting Tips
MLS · Wednesday 28 October 2026 · 23:30 UTC · Nu Stadium · updated 2026-10-25
Inter Miami welcome Cincinnati to Nu Stadium in MLS action on Wednesday 28 October 2026, kick-off 23:30 UTC.
Inter Miami have played 31 matches in MLS this season, scoring 2.4 and conceding 1.7 goals a game and winning 48% of them. At home they average 2.7 goals scored and 1.7 conceded over 15 matches, with a 40% win rate. Cincinnati have played 31 matches in MLS this season, scoring 2.1 and conceding 2.3 goals a game and winning 35% of them. Away from home they average 1.6 goals scored and 2.6 conceded over 16 matches, with a 27% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, Inter Miami are narrow favourites at 55%, with the draw at 19% and Cincinnati at 26%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Inter Miami 2.69, Cincinnati 1.87.
- Over 2.5 goals: 83% · both teams to score: 79%.
- Most likely score: 3–2 (6%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (31 and 31 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
Inter Miami: form and key numbers
In style Inter Miami keep the ball, create plenty of chances.
- Expected goals: 1.91 a match created, 1.83 conceded (goals minus xG: +13.7).
- Shots: 14.9 a match, 6.0 on target.
- Possession: 57.1% on average.
- Clean sheets: 19% of matches (50% at home).
- Both teams scored in 74% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.0 a match.
- Discipline: 2.6 yellow cards a match, 3.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.93.
Cincinnati: form and key numbers
In style Cincinnati press high, cross a lot, take players on.
- Expected goals: 1.81 a match created, 1.61 conceded (goals minus xG: +7.8).
- Shots: 14.8 a match, 5.9 on target.
- Possession: 51.1% on average.
- Clean sheets: 10% of matches (33% away).
- Both teams scored in 74% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.1 a match.
- Discipline: 2.1 yellow cards a match, 7.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.84.
Inter Miami vs Cincinnati: season averages side by side
| Inter Miami | Per match this season | Cincinnati |
|---|---|---|
| 31 | Matches | 31 |
| 2.4 | Goals scored | 2.1 |
| 1.7 | Goals conceded | 2.3 |
| 1.91 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.81 |
| 1.83 | xG conceded | 1.61 |
| 14.9 | Shots | 14.8 |
| 6.0 | On target | 5.9 |
| 57.1 | Possession % | 51.1 |
| 19% | Clean sheets % | 10% |
| 74% | Both teams scored % | 74% |
| 5.0 | Corners | 5.1 |
| 2.6 | Yellow cards | 2.1 |
| 6.93 | Average rating | 6.84 |
Players to watch
Inter Miami
- Lionel Messi RWF · Creative winger · Moneyball Score 63 · High shot volume, Gets into scoring positions (top 1% of his position)
- Rodrigo De Paul CMF · Playmaker · Moneyball Score 46 · Creator, Long passer (top 3% of his position)
Cincinnati
- Tyrell Malacia LWB · Attacking wing-back · Moneyball Score 42 · Hard to dribble past, Reads the game (top 13% of his position)
- Kévin Denkey CF · Poacher · Moneyball Score 36 · Takes high-quality shots, Gets into scoring positions (top 2% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Evander
Evander, 28 · Cincinnati · AMF · Creator · Moneyball Score 66
Evander, 28, plays as an attacking midfielder for Cincinnati in the MLS. Strongest for his role in through balls and expected assists (est.). Weakest in dispossessed. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every attacking midfielder in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average attacking midfielder, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- CAM · Attacking midfielder Natural, 66
- LW · Winger Accomplished, 62
- CM · Central midfielder Accomplished, 54
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Through balls | 0.32 / 90 | 97% |
| Expected assists (est.) | 0.49 / 90 | 95% |
| Big chances created | 0.96 / 90 | 94% |
| Key passes | 3.51 / 90 | 85% |
| Shots | 3.79 / 90 | 82% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★½ Creative winger Winger
- ★★★★½ Creator Attacking midfielder
- ★★★★ Shadow striker Attacking midfielder
Scout's notes: Through-ball threat, Creator, Big-chance creator.
- What Evander is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Inter Miami vs Cincinnati prediction
Inter Miami should have more of the ball; Cincinnati work the ball wide and cross. Moneyball's model expects about 4.6 goals - 2.69 for Inter Miami and 1.87 for Cincinnati - with over 2.5 goals at 83% and both teams scoring at 79%. Inter Miami have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: Inter Miami 3-2 Cincinnati
Inter Miami vs Cincinnati betting tips
- Tip 1: Inter Miami to win 55% on Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers
- Tip 2: Over 3.5 goals 67% by the model, 4.56 goals expected
- Tip 3: Both teams to score: yes 79% by the model
- Tip 4: Over 3.5 cards the two sides average 14.7 cards a match between them
- Tip 5: Over 8.5 corners 10.1 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
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Inter Miami vs Cincinnati: questions and answers
When is Inter Miami vs Cincinnati?
Inter Miami vs Cincinnati is on Wednesday 28 October 2026, kick-off 23:30 UTC, in MLS.
Where is Inter Miami vs Cincinnati played?
At Nu Stadium, Inter Miami's home ground.
Who will win Inter Miami vs Cincinnati?
Inter Miami are the favourites: Inter Miami 55%, draw 19%, Cincinnati 26%. Our prediction is Inter Miami 3-2 Cincinnati.
Who is the player to watch in Inter Miami vs Cincinnati?
Evander of Cincinnati: a creator with a Moneyball Score of 66 against every attacking midfielder in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Inter Miami vs Cincinnati?
Moneyball's model expects about 4.6 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 83%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.