Moneyball OddsDixon-Coles · xG fusion
Back to Moneyball Odds

Atlético Mineiro 3-0 Grêmio: Match Report, Goals, Stats and Ratings

Full time: Atlético Mineiro 3-0 Grêmio

Atlético Mineiro won 3-0 at home to Grêmio in Brasileirão Matchday 23 on Sunday 16 August 2026. The goals: Vitor Hugo  19', Tomás Cuello 62', Tomás Cuello 66'.

How Atlético Mineiro won it

The opening goal came in the 19th minute: Vitor Hugo  for Atlético Mineiro, set up by Igor Gomes. Tomás Cuello made it 2-0 to Atlético Mineiro in the 62nd minute, set up by Renan Lodi. Tomás Cuello made it 3-0 to Atlético Mineiro in the 66th minute.

It was 1-0 at half-time.

Tomás Cuello scored twice.

The referee, B. Arleu de Araujo, showed 6 yellow cards: 3 to Atlético Mineiro and 3 to Grêmio.

Atlético Mineiro: E. Domínguez, 4-2-3-1 · Grêmio: L. Ribeiro de Castro, 4-1-4-1.

Moneyball's prediction against the result

Moneyball did not publish a pre-match estimate for this match, so there is nothing to mark it against.

Why it went this way

On the day the expected goals were 0.50 for Atlético Mineiro and 2.47 for Grêmio.

Atlético Mineiro scored about 2.5 more than their chances were worth: clinical finishing, or a goalkeeper having a bad day.

Grêmio left about 2.5 goals' worth of chances on the pitch.

Grêmio created the better chances, 2.47 xG to 0.50, and still lost. On chances alone, the result could easily have gone the other way.

Atlético Mineiro had 5 shots on target, Grêmio 1.

Atlético Mineiro had 51% of the ball and turned it into the win.

Where the two sides stood before this match

Atlético Mineiro came into it with 31 Brasileirão matches played, scoring 1.4 and conceding 1.1 a match, with 1.36 expected goals for and 1.23 against, and had won 45% of their matches.

Grêmio came into it with 31 Brasileirão matches played, scoring 1.1 and conceding 1.4 a match, with 1.04 expected goals for and 1.94 against, and had won 23% of their matches.

Atlético Mineiro vs Grêmio: the match in numbers

Atlético MineiroMatch statisticsGrêmio
51%Ball possession49%
0.50Expected goals (xG)2.47
15Total shots9
5Shots on target1
5Big chances0
478Total passes464
91%Pass accuracy90%
8Corners6
14Fouls11
0Offsides2
14Tackles11
1Saves2
3Yellow cards3

Team statistics from Sportmonks.

Player ratings and man of the match

Man of the match: Tomás Cuello (Atlético Mineiro), rated 9.7 by Sportmonks, with 2 goals.

Atlético Mineiro

Grêmio

The lowest-rated starter was Dodi at 6.0. Ratings run from 0 to 10; around 7.0 is a solid match.

What comes next

Each preview has Moneyball's estimate for the next match, published before kick-off and marked against the result afterwards, as this one is.

Questions about Atlético Mineiro vs Grêmio

What was the score in Atlético Mineiro vs Grêmio?

Atlético Mineiro 3-0 Grêmio (half-time 1-0), Brasileirão, Sunday 16 August 2026.

Who scored in Atlético Mineiro vs Grêmio?

Vitor Hugo  19', Tomás Cuello 62', Tomás Cuello 66'.

Did Moneyball predict Atlético Mineiro vs Grêmio correctly?

Moneyball did not publish a pre-match estimate for this match, so there is nothing to mark it against.

Who was man of the match in Atlético Mineiro vs Grêmio?

Tomás Cuello, rated 9.7 by Sportmonks.

Who refereed Atlético Mineiro vs Grêmio?

B. Arleu de Araujo.

Every match, before and after

Moneyball Odds writes a preview with its estimate before every match of Europe's top five leagues and the European cups, then marks it against the result, hits and misses alike.

Open Moneyball Odds Match Live All match reports

Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over.