Flamengo vs Atlético Mineiro Prediction and Betting Tips | Brasileirão Gameweek 32
Brasileirão · Monday 26 October 2026 · 23:00 UTC · Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho, Rio de Janeiro · updated 2026-10-25
Flamengo welcome Atlético Mineiro to Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho in Rio de Janeiro in Brasileirão Gameweek 32 action on Monday 26 October 2026, kick-off 23:00 UTC.
Flamengo have played 31 matches in Brasileirão this season, scoring 2.0 and conceding 0.8 goals a game and winning 65% of them. At home they average 1.9 goals scored and 0.7 conceded over 15 matches, with a 55% win rate. Atlético Mineiro have played 31 matches in Brasileirão this season, scoring 1.4 and conceding 1.1 goals a game and winning 45% of them. Away from home they average 1.0 goals scored and 1.2 conceded over 15 matches, with a 29% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, Flamengo are narrow favourites at 58%, with the draw at 24% and Atlético Mineiro at 17%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Flamengo 1.77, Atlético Mineiro 0.86.
- Over 2.5 goals: 49% · both teams to score: 49%.
- Most likely score: 2–1 (10%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (31 and 31 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
Flamengo: form and key numbers
In style Flamengo keep the ball, press high, create plenty of chances.
- Expected goals: 1.73 a match created, 0.96 conceded (goals minus xG: +7.3).
- Shots: 15.8 a match, 5.7 on target.
- Possession: 57.0% on average.
- Clean sheets: 45% of matches (57% at home).
- Both teams scored in 48% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.5 a match.
- Discipline: 2.2 yellow cards a match, 7.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.99.
Atlético Mineiro: form and key numbers
In style Atlético Mineiro play long and direct.
- Expected goals: 1.36 a match created, 1.23 conceded (goals minus xG: -0.1).
- Shots: 14.0 a match, 4.9 on target.
- Possession: 49.2% on average.
- Clean sheets: 26% of matches (38% away).
- Both teams scored in 48% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.3 a match.
- Discipline: 1.7 yellow cards a match, 4.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.86.
Flamengo vs Atlético Mineiro: season averages side by side
| Flamengo | Per match this season | Atlético Mineiro |
|---|---|---|
| 31 | Matches | 31 |
| 2.0 | Goals scored | 1.4 |
| 0.8 | Goals conceded | 1.1 |
| 1.73 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.36 |
| 0.96 | xG conceded | 1.23 |
| 15.8 | Shots | 14.0 |
| 5.7 | On target | 4.9 |
| 57.0 | Possession % | 49.2 |
| 45% | Clean sheets % | 26% |
| 48% | Both teams scored % | 48% |
| 5.5 | Corners | 5.3 |
| 2.2 | Yellow cards | 1.7 |
| 6.99 | Average rating | 6.86 |
Players to watch
Flamengo
- Gonzalo Plata RWF · Inside forward · Moneyball Score 62 · Dribbler, Big-chance creator (top 17% of his position)
- Samuel Lino LWF · Creative winger · Moneyball Score 62 · Creator, Big-chance creator (top 4% of his position)
Atlético Mineiro
- Tomás Cuello LWF · Creative winger · Moneyball Score 61 · Big-chance creator, Creator (top 24% of his position)
- Alexsander DMF · Ball-winner · Moneyball Score 60 · Duel winner, Ball-winner (top 4% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Jorge Carrascal
Jorge Carrascal, 28 · Flamengo · AMF · Dribbling playmaker · Moneyball Score 73
Jorge Carrascal, 28, plays as an attacking midfielder for Flamengo in the Brasileirão. Strongest for his role in expected assists (est.) and key passes. Weakest in through balls. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every attacking midfielder in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average attacking midfielder, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- CAM · Attacking midfielder Natural, 73
- RW · Winger Natural, 73
- ST · Centre-forward Accomplished, 56
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Expected assists (est.) | 0.43 / 90 | 95% |
| Key passes | 3.26 / 90 | 92% |
| Big chances created | 0.77 / 90 | 92% |
| Successful dribbles | 1.73 / 90 | 85% |
| Fouls won | 2.05 / 90 | 81% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★★ Creative winger Winger
- ★★★★½ Dribbling playmaker Attacking midfielder
- ★★★★ Pressing forward Centre-forward
Scout's notes: Creator, Chance creator, Big-chance creator.
- What Jorge Carrascal is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Jorge Carrascal's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Flamengo vs Atlético Mineiro prediction
Flamengo should have more of the ball, with Atlético Mineiro likely to sit in a compact block and look to break; Flamengo press high to win the ball back; Atlético Mineiro go long and direct. Moneyball's model expects about 2.6 goals - 1.77 for Flamengo and 0.86 for Atlético Mineiro - with over 2.5 goals at 49% and both teams scoring at 49%. Flamengo have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: Flamengo 2-1 Atlético Mineiro
Flamengo vs Atlético Mineiro betting tips
- Tip 1: Flamengo to win 58% on Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers
- Tip 2: Over 1.5 goals 2.64 goals expected; 2.5 is close to a coin toss (49%)
- Tip 3: Over 3.5 cards the two sides average 14.8 cards a match between them
- Tip 4: Over 9.5 corners 10.8 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
More Brasileirão previews
- Coritiba vs Grêmio Monday 26 October 2026
- Bragantino vs Chapecoense Wednesday 28 October 2026
- Santos vs Palmeiras Wednesday 28 October 2026
- Fluminense vs Internacional Wednesday 28 October 2026
- Remo vs Botafogo Thursday 29 October 2026
- Bahia vs São Paulo Thursday 29 October 2026
- Atlético Mineiro vs Cruzeiro Thursday 29 October 2026
- Vasco da Gama vs Flamengo Thursday 29 October 2026
Flamengo vs Atlético Mineiro: questions and answers
When is Flamengo vs Atlético Mineiro?
Flamengo vs Atlético Mineiro is on Monday 26 October 2026, kick-off 23:00 UTC, in Brasileirão Gameweek 32.
Where is Flamengo vs Atlético Mineiro played?
At Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho, Rio de Janeiro, Flamengo's home ground.
Who will win Flamengo vs Atlético Mineiro?
Flamengo are the favourites: Flamengo 58%, draw 24%, Atlético Mineiro 17%. Our prediction is Flamengo 2-1 Atlético Mineiro.
Who is the player to watch in Flamengo vs Atlético Mineiro?
Jorge Carrascal of Flamengo: a dribbling playmaker with a Moneyball Score of 73 against every attacking midfielder in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Flamengo vs Atlético Mineiro?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.6 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 49%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.