Moneyball OddsDixon-Coles · xG fusion
Back to Moneyball Odds

Atlético Mineiro 2-1 Vitória: Match Report, Goals, Stats and Ratings

Full time: Atlético Mineiro 2-1 Vitória

Atlético Mineiro 2-1 Vitória: Atlético Mineiro took the points in Brasileirão Matchday 25 on Saturday 29 August 2026 at Arena MRV. The goals: Thiago Borbas 25', Reinier 63', Erick 87'.

How Atlético Mineiro won it

Atlético Mineiro struck first through Thiago Borbas in the 25th minute, set up by Reinier. Reinier made it 2-0 to Atlético Mineiro in the 63rd minute. Erick made it 2-1 to Vitória in the 87th minute.

It was 1-0 at half-time.

The referee, E. Alves Batista, showed 3 yellow cards: 2 to Atlético Mineiro and 1 to Vitória.

Atlético Mineiro: E. Domínguez, 4-2-3-1 · Vitória: J. Ribeiro Ventura, 4-1-4-1.

Moneyball's prediction against the result

Moneyball did not publish a pre-match estimate for this match, so there is nothing to mark it against.

Why it went this way

On the day the expected goals were 0.65 for Atlético Mineiro and 1.66 for Vitória.

Atlético Mineiro scored about 1.4 more than their chances were worth: clinical finishing, or a goalkeeper having a bad day.

Vitória created the better chances, 1.66 xG to 0.65, and still lost. On chances alone, the result could easily have gone the other way.

Atlético Mineiro had 8 shots on target, Vitória 3.

Vitória's goalkeeper made 6 saves.

Atlético Mineiro had 61% of the ball and turned it into the win.

Where the two sides stood before this match

Atlético Mineiro came into it with 31 Brasileirão matches played, scoring 1.4 and conceding 1.1 a match, with 1.36 expected goals for and 1.23 against, and had won 45% of their matches.

Vitória came into it with 32 Brasileirão matches played, scoring 1.1 and conceding 1.4 a match, with 1.03 expected goals for and 1.41 against, and had won 31% of their matches.

Atlético Mineiro vs Vitória: the match in numbers

Atlético MineiroMatch statisticsVitória
61%Ball possession39%
0.65Expected goals (xG)1.66
18Total shots14
8Shots on target3
2Big chances0
636Total passes392
91%Pass accuracy84%
4Corners5
12Fouls13
2Offsides0
20Tackles23
2Saves6
2Yellow cards1

Team statistics from Sportmonks.

Player ratings and man of the match

Man of the match: Reinier (Atlético Mineiro), rated 8.3 by Sportmonks, with 1 goal, 1 assist.

Atlético Mineiro

Vitória

The lowest-rated starter was Diego Tarzia at 5.7. Ratings run from 0 to 10; around 7.0 is a solid match.

What comes next

Each preview has Moneyball's estimate for the next match, published before kick-off and marked against the result afterwards, as this one is.

Questions about Atlético Mineiro vs Vitória

What was the score in Atlético Mineiro vs Vitória?

Atlético Mineiro 2-1 Vitória (half-time 1-0), Brasileirão, Saturday 29 August 2026.

Who scored in Atlético Mineiro vs Vitória?

Thiago Borbas 25', Reinier 63', Erick 87'.

Did Moneyball predict Atlético Mineiro vs Vitória correctly?

Moneyball did not publish a pre-match estimate for this match, so there is nothing to mark it against.

Who was man of the match in Atlético Mineiro vs Vitória?

Reinier, rated 8.3 by Sportmonks.

Who refereed Atlético Mineiro vs Vitória?

E. Alves Batista.

Every match, before and after

Moneyball Odds writes a preview with its estimate before every match of Europe's top five leagues and the European cups, then marks it against the result, hits and misses alike.

Open Moneyball Odds Match Live All match reports

Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over.