Coritiba vs Vitória Prediction and Betting Tips | Brasileirão Gameweek 33
Brasileirão · Saturday 31 October 2026 · 19:00 UTC · Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira, Curitiba · updated 2026-10-25
Coritiba welcome Vitória to Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira in Curitiba in Brasileirão Gameweek 33 action on Saturday 31 October 2026, kick-off 19:00 UTC.
Coritiba have played 31 matches in Brasileirão this season, scoring 1.2 and conceding 1.6 goals a game and winning 32% of them. At home they average 1.3 goals scored and 1.3 conceded over 15 matches, with a 50% win rate. Vitória have played 32 matches in Brasileirão this season, scoring 1.1 and conceding 1.4 goals a game and winning 31% of them. Away from home they average 0.8 goals scored and 2.1 conceded over 16 matches, with a 0% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, there is little to separate them: Coritiba 40%, the draw 28%, Vitória 33%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Coritiba 1.36, Vitória 1.22.
- Over 2.5 goals: 48% · both teams to score: 53%.
- Most likely score: 2–1 (9%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (31 and 32 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
Coritiba: form and key numbers
In style Coritiba are happy without the ball, play long and direct.
- Expected goals: 1.06 a match created, 1.76 conceded (goals minus xG: +5.1).
- Shots: 11.2 a match, 3.3 on target.
- Possession: 40.3% on average.
- Clean sheets: 19% of matches (33% at home).
- Both teams scored in 52% of their matches.
- Corners: 3.8 a match.
- Discipline: 1.8 yellow cards a match, 10.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.73.
Vitória: form and key numbers
In style Vitória are happy without the ball, play long and direct.
- Expected goals: 1.03 a match created, 1.41 conceded (goals minus xG: +2.0).
- Shots: 12.1 a match, 4.2 on target.
- Possession: 44.6% on average.
- Clean sheets: 34% of matches (9% away).
- Both teams scored in 44% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.3 a match.
- Discipline: 2.4 yellow cards a match, 5.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.78.
Coritiba vs Vitória: season averages side by side
| Coritiba | Per match this season | Vitória |
|---|---|---|
| 31 | Matches | 32 |
| 1.2 | Goals scored | 1.1 |
| 1.6 | Goals conceded | 1.4 |
| 1.06 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.03 |
| 1.76 | xG conceded | 1.41 |
| 11.2 | Shots | 12.1 |
| 3.3 | On target | 4.2 |
| 40.3 | Possession % | 44.6 |
| 19% | Clean sheets % | 34% |
| 52% | Both teams scored % | 44% |
| 3.8 | Corners | 4.3 |
| 1.8 | Yellow cards | 2.4 |
| 6.73 | Average rating | 6.78 |
Players to watch
Coritiba
- Rodrigo Moledo CB · Box defender · Moneyball Score 56 · Disciplined, Dominant in the air (top 5% of his position)
- Pedro Morisco GK · Shot-stopper · Moneyball Score 56 · Box defender, Shot-stopper (top 12% of his position)
Vitória
- Mateusinho RWB · Attacking wing-back · Moneyball Score 65 · Ball-winner, Duel winner (top 16% of his position)
- Caíque Gonçalves DMF · Anchor · Moneyball Score 50 · Blocks shots, Secure passer (top 5% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Jacy
Jacy, 29 · Coritiba · CB · Box defender · Moneyball Score 53
Jacy, 29, plays as a centre-back for Coritiba in the Brasileirão. Strongest for his role in clearances and duels won. Weakest in passes. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every centre-back in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average centre-back, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- CB · Centre-back Natural, 53
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Clearances | 7.40 / 90 | 87% |
| Duels won | 6.05 / 90 | 87% |
| Blocked shots | 1.17 / 90 | 85% |
| Tackles | 2.11 / 90 | 83% |
| Aerial duels won | 2.82 / 90 | 77% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★ Box defender Centre-back
- ★★★★ Stopper Centre-back
- ★★ Anchor Defensive midfielder
Scout's notes: Box defender, Duel winner, Blocks shots.
- What Jacy is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Coritiba vs Vitória prediction
Vitória should have more of the ball; both go long and direct. Moneyball's model expects about 2.6 goals - 1.36 for Coritiba and 1.22 for Vitória - with over 2.5 goals at 48% and both teams scoring at 53%. Little separates the sides on the numbers, and a draw is the single likeliest result.
Prediction: Coritiba 1-1 Vitória
Coritiba vs Vitória betting tips
- Tip 1: Draw or either side by one goal is the shape of it - avoid the result market no side above 40%
- Tip 2: Under 2.5 goals 52% by the model, 2.58 goals expected
- Tip 3: Over 3.5 cards the two sides average 19.3 cards a match between them
- Tip 4: Under 10.5 corners 8.1 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
More Brasileirão previews
- Coritiba vs Grêmio Monday 26 October 2026
- Flamengo vs Atlético Mineiro Monday 26 October 2026
- Bragantino vs Chapecoense Wednesday 28 October 2026
- Santos vs Palmeiras Wednesday 28 October 2026
- Fluminense vs Internacional Wednesday 28 October 2026
- Remo vs Botafogo Thursday 29 October 2026
- Bahia vs São Paulo Thursday 29 October 2026
- Atlético Mineiro vs Cruzeiro Thursday 29 October 2026
Coritiba vs Vitória: questions and answers
When is Coritiba vs Vitória?
Coritiba vs Vitória is on Saturday 31 October 2026, kick-off 19:00 UTC, in Brasileirão Gameweek 33.
Where is Coritiba vs Vitória played?
At Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira, Curitiba, Coritiba's home ground.
Who will win Coritiba vs Vitória?
It is close: Coritiba 40%, draw 28%, Vitória 33%. Our prediction is Coritiba 1-1 Vitória.
Who is the player to watch in Coritiba vs Vitória?
Jacy of Coritiba: a box defender with a Moneyball Score of 53 against every centre-back in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Coritiba vs Vitória?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.6 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 48%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.