Baltika vs Akron Tolyatti Prediction and Betting Tips | Premier League Gameweek 13
Premier League · Sunday 1 November 2026 · updated 2026-11-01
Baltika welcome Akron Tolyatti to Kaliningrad Stadium in Kaliningrad in Premier League Gameweek 13 action on Sunday 1 November 2026.
Baltika have played 12 matches in the Premier League this season, scoring 1.3 and conceding 1.1 goals a game and winning 25% of them. At home they average 1.0 goals scored and 1.3 conceded over 6 matches, with a 33% win rate. Akron Tolyatti have played 12 matches in the Premier League this season, scoring 1.3 and conceding 1.8 goals a game and winning 17% of them. Away from home they average 1.2 goals scored and 1.3 conceded over 6 matches, with a 0% win rate.
On the bookmakers' prices, with their margin taken out, Baltika are narrow favourites at 50%, with the draw at 28% and Akron Tolyatti at 22%.
The odds
Decimal odds; the percentages are the chances the prices imply once the bookmaker's margin (12.1% on this market) is taken out. The main Asian handicap is Baltika -0.75 at 1.90, Akron Tolyatti at 1.83. The main goals line is 2.25: over 1.83, under 1.89, which gives over 51%.
Baltika: form and key numbers
In style Baltika are happy without the ball, play long and direct, cross a lot.
- Expected goals: 1.39 a match created, 0.88 conceded (goals minus xG: -1.7).
- Shots: 12.5 a match, 4.1 on target.
- Possession: 40.4% on average.
- Clean sheets: 33% of matches (25% at home).
- Both teams scored in 58% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.9 a match.
- Discipline: 2.0 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.77.
Akron Tolyatti: form and key numbers
In style Akron Tolyatti keep the ball, play long and direct.
- Expected goals: 1.05 a match created, 1.45 conceded (goals minus xG: +2.4).
- Shots: 12.3 a match, 4.0 on target.
- Possession: 53.5% on average.
- Clean sheets: 17% of matches (50% away).
- Both teams scored in 58% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.5 a match.
- Discipline: 3.2 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.78.
Baltika vs Akron Tolyatti: season averages side by side
| Baltika | Per match | Akron Tolyatti |
|---|---|---|
| 1.39 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.05 |
| 0.88 | xG conceded | 1.45 |
| 1.25 | Goals | 1.25 |
| 12.5 | Shots | 12.3 |
| 4.1 | Shots on target | 4.0 |
| 0.8 | Big chances missed | 0.5 |
| 53.5 | Pressure share % | 45.8 |
| 17.6 | Tackles | 12.8 |
| 16.4 | Fouls | 14.0 |
| 2.0 | Yellow cards | 3.2 |
Season averages per match from Sportmonks, over 12 and 12 measured matches.
Baltika vs Akron Tolyatti: head-to-head stats and key numbers
- Baltika have won 1, drawn 0 and lost 1 of the last 2 meetings in our data.
- Goals in those games: Baltika 2, Akron Tolyatti 1 - 1.5 a match.
- The most recent meeting finished Baltika 0-1 Akron Tolyatti (April 27th 2026).
Head to head
In their last 2 meetings Baltika won 1, drew 0 and lost 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 27 Apr 2026 | Baltika | 0 – 1 | Akron Tolyatti |
| 31 Aug 2025 | Akron Tolyatti | 0 – 2 | Baltika |
Players to watch
Baltika
- Vladislav Pospelov WMF · Two-way wide midfielder · Moneyball Score 32 · Ball-winner, Duel winner (top 25% of his position)
- Nathan Gassama CB · Stopper · Moneyball Score 29 · Hard to dribble past, Dominant in the air (top 14% of his position)
Akron Tolyatti
- Marat Bokoev CB · Stopper · Moneyball Score 32 · Hard to dribble past, Reads the game (top 2% of his position)
- Rodrigo Escoval CB · Box defender · Moneyball Score 30 · Blocks shots, Long passer (top 11% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Brayan Gil
Brayan Gil, 25 · Baltika Kaliningrad · CF · Poacher · Moneyball Score 35
Brayan Gil, 25, plays as a centre-forward for Baltika Kaliningrad in the Russian Premier League. Strongest for his role in shot quality (xG per shot) and shots on target. Weakest in shots. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average centre-forward, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- ST · Centre-forward Natural, 35
- SS · Second striker Accomplished, 31
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Shot quality (xG per shot) | 0.22 xG/shot | 94% |
| Shots on target | 53% | 78% |
| Aerial duels won | 3.87 / 90 | 71% |
| Goals | 0.60 / 90 | 53% |
| Big chances missed | 0.30 / 90 | 44% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★½ Shadow striker Second striker
- ★★★ Poacher Centre-forward
- ★★ Target man Centre-forward
Scout's notes: Takes high-quality shots.
- What Brayan Gil is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Brayan Gil's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Baltika vs Akron Tolyatti prediction
Akron Tolyatti should have more of the ball, with Baltika likely to sit in a compact block and look to break; Baltika are a threat in the air and from set pieces; Akron Tolyatti go long and direct. Moneyball's model expects about 2.5 goals - 1.65 for Baltika and 0.86 for Akron Tolyatti - with over 2.5 goals at 46% and both teams scoring at 47%. Baltika have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: Baltika 2-1 Akron Tolyatti
The full model, every line of this match, in the Match Centre
Baltika vs Akron Tolyatti betting tips
- Tip 1: Baltika win or draw (double chance) 78% between them
- Tip 2: Under 2.5 goals 54% by the model, 2.51 goals expected
- Tip 3: Over 3.5 cards the two sides average 5.2 cards a match between them
- Tip 4: Over 8.5 corners 9.4 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
Moneyball's pick
The Dixon-Coles and xG model prices every line of this match: the win, draw and loss probabilities, fair odds and the expected value of each handicap and goals line. The full analysis of this match is part of Moneyball Premium.
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Baltika vs Akron Tolyatti: questions and answers
When is Baltika vs Akron Tolyatti?
Baltika vs Akron Tolyatti is on Sunday 1 November 2026, in Premier League Gameweek 13.
Where is Baltika vs Akron Tolyatti played?
At Kaliningrad Stadium, Kaliningrad, Baltika's home ground.
Who will win Baltika vs Akron Tolyatti?
Baltika are the favourites: Baltika 50%, draw 28%, Akron Tolyatti 22%. Our prediction is Baltika 2-1 Akron Tolyatti.
Who is the player to watch in Baltika vs Akron Tolyatti?
Brayan Gil of Baltika Kaliningrad: a poacher with a Moneyball Score of 35 against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Baltika vs Akron Tolyatti?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.5 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 46%.
Tags
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