Orenburg vs CSKA Moscow Prediction and Betting Tips
Premier League · Sunday 1 November 2026 · updated 2026-11-01
Orenburg welcome CSKA Moscow to Stadion Gazovik in Orenburg in Premier League action on Sunday 1 November 2026.
Orenburg have played 12 matches in the Premier League this season, scoring 1.2 and conceding 1.0 goals a game and winning 25% of them. At home they average 1.5 goals scored and 1.2 conceded over 6 matches, with a 67% win rate. CSKA Moscow have little league football behind them yet this season, so their numbers lean on the league average.
On the bookmakers' prices, with their margin taken out, there is little to separate them: Orenburg 31%, the draw 28%, CSKA Moscow 41%.
The odds
Decimal odds; the percentages are the chances the prices imply once the bookmaker's margin (12.1% on this market) is taken out. The main Asian handicap is Orenburg +0.25 at 1.88, CSKA Moscow at 1.85. The main goals line is 2.75: over 1.85, under 1.85, which gives over 50%.
Orenburg: form and key numbers
In style Orenburg are happy without the ball, play long and direct, cross a lot.
- Expected goals: 1.41 a match created, 1.40 conceded (goals minus xG: -2.9).
- Shots: 13.3 a match, 4.4 on target.
- Possession: 37.7% on average.
- Clean sheets: 33% of matches (50% at home).
- Both teams scored in 50% of their matches.
- Corners: 3.3 a match.
- Discipline: 3.4 yellow cards a match, 3.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.77.
Orenburg vs CSKA Moscow: season averages side by side
| Orenburg | Per match | CSKA Moscow |
|---|---|---|
| 1.41 | Expected goals (xG) | – |
| 1.40 | xG conceded | – |
| 1.17 | Goals | – |
| 13.3 | Shots | – |
| 4.4 | Shots on target | – |
| 1.1 | Big chances missed | – |
| 49.7 | Pressure share % | – |
| 13.5 | Tackles | – |
| 18.7 | Fouls | – |
| 3.4 | Yellow cards | – |
Season averages per match from Sportmonks, over 12 and – measured matches.
Players to watch
Orenburg
- Jordhy Thompson RWF · Creative winger · Moneyball Score 41 · Gets into scoring positions, Crosser (top 8% of his position)
- Bogdan Ovsyannikov GK · Shot-stopper · Moneyball Score 32 · Box defender, Long passer (top 50% of his position)
Orenburg vs CSKA Moscow prediction
Moneyball's model expects about 2.6 goals - 1.44 for Orenburg and 1.13 for CSKA Moscow - with over 2.5 goals at 47% and both teams scoring at 52%. Little separates the sides on the numbers, and a draw is the single likeliest result.
Prediction: Orenburg 1-1 CSKA Moscow
The full model, every line of this match, in the Match Centre
Orenburg vs CSKA Moscow betting tips
- Tip 1: Draw or either side by one goal is the shape of it - avoid the result market no side above 41%
- Tip 2: Under 2.5 goals 53% by the model, 2.57 goals expected
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
Moneyball's pick
The Dixon-Coles and xG model prices every line of this match: the win, draw and loss probabilities, fair odds and the expected value of each handicap and goals line. The full analysis of this match is part of Moneyball Premium.
Open Orenburg vs CSKA Moscow in the Match Centre Follow it live
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Orenburg vs CSKA Moscow: questions and answers
When is Orenburg vs CSKA Moscow?
Orenburg vs CSKA Moscow is on Sunday 1 November 2026, in the Premier League.
Where is Orenburg vs CSKA Moscow played?
At Stadion Gazovik, Orenburg, Orenburg's home ground.
Who will win Orenburg vs CSKA Moscow?
It is close: Orenburg 31%, draw 28%, CSKA Moscow 41%. Our prediction is Orenburg 1-1 CSKA Moscow.
How many goals will there be in Orenburg vs CSKA Moscow?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.6 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 47%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.