Bournemouth AFC vs Sunderland Prediction and Betting Tips | Premier League Gameweek 7
Premier League · Sunday 18 October 2026 · updated 2026-10-10
Bournemouth AFC welcome Sunderland to Vitality Stadium in Bournemouth in Premier League Gameweek 7 action on Sunday 18 October 2026.
Bournemouth AFC have played 5 matches in the Premier League this season, scoring 1.2 and conceding 1.6 goals a game and winning 0% of them. At home they average 1.0 goals scored and 1.3 conceded over 3 matches, with a 0% win rate. Sunderland have played 5 matches in the Premier League this season, scoring 1.2 and conceding 2.0 goals a game and winning 20% of them. Away from home they average 1.7 goals scored and 2.7 conceded over 3 matches, with a 0% win rate.
On the bookmakers' prices, with their margin taken out, Bournemouth AFC are narrow favourites at 45%, with the draw at 28% and Sunderland at 27%.
The odds
Decimal odds; the percentages are the chances the prices imply once the bookmaker's margin (10.1% on this market) is taken out. The main Asian handicap is Bournemouth AFC -0.5 at 2.00, Sunderland at 1.90. The main goals line is 2.5: over 1.85, under 2.03, which gives over 52%.
Bournemouth AFC: form and key numbers
In style Bournemouth AFC play long and direct, are strong in the air.
- Expected goals: 1.52 a match created, 1.23 conceded (goals minus xG: -1.6).
- Shots: 13.6 a match, 5.2 on target.
- Possession: 47.6% on average.
- Clean sheets: 0% of matches (0% at home).
- Both teams scored in 80% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.2 a match.
- Discipline: 2.8 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.78.
Sunderland: form and key numbers
In style Sunderland play long and direct, cross a lot, are strong in the air.
- Expected goals: 1.86 a match created, 1.60 conceded (goals minus xG: -3.3).
- Shots: 13.2 a match, 5.0 on target.
- Possession: 48.4% on average.
- Clean sheets: 20% of matches (0% away).
- Both teams scored in 60% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.0 a match.
- Discipline: 2.2 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.77.
Bournemouth AFC vs Sunderland: season averages side by side
| Bournemouth AFC | Per match | Sunderland |
|---|---|---|
| 1.52 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.86 |
| 1.23 | xG conceded | 1.60 |
| 1.20 | Goals | 1.20 |
| 13.6 | Shots | 13.2 |
| 5.2 | Shots on target | 5.0 |
| 2.4 | Big chances missed | 3.0 |
| 52.3 | Pressure share % | 48.9 |
| 16.0 | Tackles | 15.6 |
| 12.0 | Fouls | 13.0 |
| 2.8 | Yellow cards | 2.2 |
Season averages per match from Sportmonks, over 5 and 5 measured matches.
Players to watch
Bournemouth AFC
- Adrien Truffert LB · Defensive full-back · Moneyball Score 67 · Ball-winner, Crosser (top 6% of his position)
- Marcus Tavernier LWF · Creative winger · Moneyball Score 66 · Crosser, Gets into scoring positions (top 8% of his position)
Sunderland
- Granit Xhaka DMF · Deep-lying playmaker · Moneyball Score 63 · Long passer, Hard to dribble past (top 2% of his position)
- Dan Ballard CB · Stopper · Moneyball Score 55 · Duel winner, Dominant in the air (top 1% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Brian Brobbey
Brian Brobbey, 24 · Sunderland · CF · Poacher · Moneyball Score 73
Brian Brobbey, 24, plays as a centre-forward for Sunderland in the Premier League. Strongest for his role in shot quality (xG per shot) and expected goals. Weakest in shots. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average centre-forward, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- ST · Centre-forward Natural, 73
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Shot quality (xG per shot) | 0.27 xG/shot | 97% |
| Expected goals | 0.66 / 90 | 86% |
| Big chances missed | 0.22 / 90 | 78% |
| Aerial duels won | 2.92 / 90 | 76% |
| Goals | 0.67 / 90 | 74% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★½ Poacher Centre-forward
- ★★★½ Complete forward Centre-forward
- ★★★½ Target man Centre-forward
Scout's notes: Takes high-quality shots, Gets into scoring positions.
- What Brian Brobbey is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Brian Brobbey's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Bournemouth AFC vs Sunderland prediction
Sunderland should have more of the ball; both sides are a threat in the air and from set pieces. Moneyball's model expects about 3.1 goals - 1.75 for Bournemouth AFC and 1.35 for Sunderland - with over 2.5 goals at 60% and both teams scoring at 62%. Bournemouth AFC have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: Bournemouth AFC 2-1 Sunderland
The full model, every line of this match, in the Match Centre
Bournemouth AFC vs Sunderland betting tips
- Tip 1: Bournemouth AFC win or draw (double chance) 73% between them
- Tip 2: Over 2.5 goals 60% by the model, 3.10 goals expected
- Tip 3: Both teams to score: yes 62% by the model
- Tip 4: Over 3.5 cards the two sides average 6.0 cards a match between them
- Tip 5: Under 10.5 corners 8.2 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
Moneyball's pick
The Dixon-Coles and xG model prices every line of this match: the win, draw and loss probabilities, fair odds and the expected value of each handicap and goals line. The full analysis of this match is part of Moneyball Premium.
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Bournemouth AFC vs Sunderland: questions and answers
When is Bournemouth AFC vs Sunderland?
Bournemouth AFC vs Sunderland is on Sunday 18 October 2026, in Premier League Gameweek 7.
Where is Bournemouth AFC vs Sunderland played?
At Vitality Stadium, Bournemouth, Bournemouth AFC's home ground.
Who will win Bournemouth AFC vs Sunderland?
Bournemouth AFC are the favourites: Bournemouth AFC 45%, draw 28%, Sunderland 27%. Our prediction is Bournemouth AFC 2-1 Sunderland.
Who is the player to watch in Bournemouth AFC vs Sunderland?
Brian Brobbey of Sunderland: a poacher with a Moneyball Score of 73 against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Bournemouth AFC vs Sunderland?
Moneyball's model expects about 3.1 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 60%.
Tags
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