Sunderland vs Brighton & Hove Albion Prediction and Betting Tips | Premier League Gameweek 6
Premier League · Saturday 10 October 2026 · updated 2026-10-10
Sunderland welcome Brighton & Hove Albion to Stadium of Light in Sunderland in Premier League Gameweek 6 action on Saturday 10 October 2026.
Sunderland have played 5 matches in the Premier League this season, scoring 1.2 and conceding 2.0 goals a game and winning 20% of them. At home they average 0.5 goals scored and 1.0 conceded over 2 matches, with a 100% win rate. Brighton & Hove Albion have played 5 matches in the Premier League this season, scoring 3.2 and conceding 1.0 goals a game and winning 60% of them. Away from home they average 4.0 goals scored and 2.0 conceded over 2 matches, with a 33% win rate.
On the bookmakers' prices, with their margin taken out, there is little to separate them: Sunderland 33%, the draw 28%, Brighton & Hove Albion 39%.
The odds
Decimal odds; the percentages are the chances the prices imply once the bookmaker's margin (10.2% on this market) is taken out. The main Asian handicap is Sunderland 0 at 2.11, Brighton & Hove Albion at 1.80. The main goals line is 2.5: over 1.90, under 1.98, which gives over 51%.
Sunderland: form and key numbers
In style Sunderland play long and direct, cross a lot, are strong in the air.
- Expected goals: 1.86 a match created, 1.60 conceded (goals minus xG: -3.3).
- Shots: 13.2 a match, 5.0 on target.
- Possession: 48.4% on average.
- Clean sheets: 20% of matches (100% at home).
- Both teams scored in 60% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.0 a match.
- Discipline: 2.2 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.77.
Brighton & Hove Albion: form and key numbers
In style Brighton & Hove Albion keep the ball, press high, cross a lot.
- Expected goals: 2.18 a match created, 1.74 conceded (goals minus xG: +5.1).
- Shots: 19.0 a match, 5.8 on target.
- Possession: 64.6% on average.
- Clean sheets: 60% of matches (33% away).
- Both teams scored in 40% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.4 a match.
- Discipline: 2.4 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 7.03.
Sunderland vs Brighton & Hove Albion: season averages side by side
| Sunderland | Per match | Brighton & Hove Albion |
|---|---|---|
| 1.86 | Expected goals (xG) | 2.18 |
| 1.60 | xG conceded | 1.74 |
| 1.20 | Goals | 3.20 |
| 13.2 | Shots | 19.0 |
| 5.0 | Shots on target | 5.8 |
| 3.0 | Big chances missed | 2.8 |
| 48.9 | Pressure share % | 72.4 |
| 15.6 | Tackles | 12.8 |
| 13.0 | Fouls | 12.8 |
| 2.2 | Yellow cards | 2.4 |
Season averages per match from Sportmonks, over 5 and 5 measured matches.
Sunderland vs Brighton & Hove Albion: head-to-head stats and key numbers
- Sunderland have won 0, drawn 1 and lost 1 of the last 2 meetings in our data.
- Goals in those games: Sunderland 0, Brighton & Hove Albion 1 - 0.5 a match.
- The most recent meeting finished Sunderland 0-1 Brighton & Hove Albion (March 14th 2026).
Head to head
In their last 2 meetings Sunderland won 0, drew 1 and lost 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14 Mar 2026 | Sunderland | 0 – 1 | Brighton & Hove Albion |
| 20 Dec 2025 | Brighton & Hove Albion | 0 – 0 | Sunderland |
Players to watch
Sunderland
- Granit Xhaka DMF · Deep-lying playmaker · Moneyball Score 63 · Long passer, Hard to dribble past (top 2% of his position)
- Dan Ballard CB · Stopper · Moneyball Score 55 · Duel winner, Dominant in the air (top 1% of his position)
Brighton & Hove Albion
- Pascal Groß CMF · Playmaker · Moneyball Score 68 · Chance creator, Creator (top 1% of his position)
- Bart Verbruggen GK · Ball-playing keeper · Moneyball Score 61 · Secure passer, Dominant in the air (top 19% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Brian Brobbey
Brian Brobbey, 24 · Sunderland · CF · Poacher · Moneyball Score 73
Brian Brobbey, 24, plays as a centre-forward for Sunderland in the Premier League. Strongest for his role in shot quality (xG per shot) and expected goals. Weakest in shots. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average centre-forward, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- ST · Centre-forward Natural, 73
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Shot quality (xG per shot) | 0.27 xG/shot | 97% |
| Expected goals | 0.66 / 90 | 86% |
| Big chances missed | 0.22 / 90 | 78% |
| Aerial duels won | 2.92 / 90 | 76% |
| Goals | 0.67 / 90 | 74% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★½ Poacher Centre-forward
- ★★★½ Complete forward Centre-forward
- ★★★½ Target man Centre-forward
Scout's notes: Takes high-quality shots, Gets into scoring positions.
- What Brian Brobbey is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Brian Brobbey's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Sunderland vs Brighton & Hove Albion prediction
Brighton & Hove Albion should have more of the ball, with Sunderland likely to sit in a compact block and look to break; both sides are a threat in the air and from set pieces. Moneyball's model expects about 3.8 goals - 1.60 for Sunderland and 2.22 for Brighton & Hove Albion - with over 2.5 goals at 73% and both teams scoring at 72%. Little separates the sides on the numbers, and a draw is the single likeliest result.
Prediction: Sunderland 1-1 Brighton & Hove Albion
The full model, every line of this match, in the Match Centre
Sunderland vs Brighton & Hove Albion betting tips
- Tip 1: Draw or either side by one goal is the shape of it - avoid the result market no side above 39%
- Tip 2: Over 2.5 goals 73% by the model, 3.82 goals expected
- Tip 3: Both teams to score: yes 72% by the model
- Tip 4: Over 3.5 cards the two sides average 5.6 cards a match between them
- Tip 5: Over 8.5 corners 9.4 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
Moneyball's pick
The Dixon-Coles and xG model prices every line of this match: the win, draw and loss probabilities, fair odds and the expected value of each handicap and goals line. The full analysis of this match is part of Moneyball Premium.
Open Sunderland vs Brighton & Hove Albion in the Match Centre Follow it live
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Sunderland vs Brighton & Hove Albion: questions and answers
When is Sunderland vs Brighton & Hove Albion?
Sunderland vs Brighton & Hove Albion is on Saturday 10 October 2026, in Premier League Gameweek 6.
Where is Sunderland vs Brighton & Hove Albion played?
At Stadium of Light, Sunderland, Sunderland's home ground.
Who will win Sunderland vs Brighton & Hove Albion?
It is close: Sunderland 33%, draw 28%, Brighton & Hove Albion 39%. Our prediction is Sunderland 1-1 Brighton & Hove Albion.
Who is the player to watch in Sunderland vs Brighton & Hove Albion?
Brian Brobbey of Sunderland: a poacher with a Moneyball Score of 73 against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Sunderland vs Brighton & Hove Albion?
Moneyball's model expects about 3.8 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 73%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.