Brighton & Hove Albion vs Newcastle United Prediction and Stats | Premier League Gameweek 12
Premier League · Sunday 29 November 2026 · 14:05 UTC · The American Express Community Stadium, Falmer · updated 2026-11-15
Brighton & Hove Albion welcome Newcastle United to The American Express Community Stadium in Falmer in Premier League Gameweek 12 action on Sunday 29 November 2026, kick-off 14:05 UTC.
Brighton & Hove Albion have played 10 matches in the Premier League this season, scoring 2.6 and conceding 0.7 goals a game and winning 70% of them. At home they average 3.0 goals scored and 0.2 conceded over 5 matches, with a 57% win rate. Newcastle United have played 10 matches in the Premier League this season, scoring 1.3 and conceding 1.6 goals a game and winning 30% of them. Away from home they average 1.4 goals scored and 1.8 conceded over 5 matches, with a 67% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, Brighton & Hove Albion are clear favourites at 72%, with the draw at 17% and Newcastle United at 12%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Brighton & Hove Albion 2.64, Newcastle United 1.00.
- Over 2.5 goals: 70% · both teams to score: 59%.
- Most likely score: 3–1 (8%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (10 and 10 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model.
Brighton & Hove Albion: form and key numbers
In style Brighton & Hove Albion keep the ball, press high, play long and direct.
- Expected goals: 1.97 a match created, 1.42 conceded (goals minus xG: +6.3).
- Shots: 16.9 a match, 5.2 on target.
- Possession: 59.5% on average.
- Clean sheets: 70% of matches (57% at home).
- Both teams scored in 20% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.1 a match.
- Discipline: 2.4 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.99.
Newcastle United: form and key numbers
In style Newcastle United are strong in the air.
- Expected goals: 1.26 a match created, 1.84 conceded (goals minus xG: +0.4).
- Shots: 12.2 a match, 3.4 on target.
- Possession: 50.3% on average.
- Clean sheets: 20% of matches (100% away).
- Both teams scored in 60% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.3 a match.
- Discipline: 2.7 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.74.
Brighton & Hove Albion vs Newcastle United: season averages side by side
| Brighton & Hove Albion | Per match this season | Newcastle United |
|---|---|---|
| 10 | Matches | 10 |
| 2.6 | Goals scored | 1.3 |
| 0.7 | Goals conceded | 1.6 |
| 1.97 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.26 |
| 1.42 | xG conceded | 1.84 |
| 16.9 | Shots | 12.2 |
| 5.2 | On target | 3.4 |
| 59.5 | Possession % | 50.3 |
| 70% | Clean sheets % | 20% |
| 20% | Both teams scored % | 60% |
| 5.1 | Corners | 4.3 |
| 2.4 | Yellow cards | 2.7 |
| 6.99 | Average rating | 6.74 |
Players to watch
Brighton & Hove Albion
- Bart Verbruggen GK · Ball-playing keeper · Moneyball Score 60 · Dominant in the air, Secure passer (top 16% of his position)
- Luka Vuskovic CB · Box defender · Moneyball Score 57 · Dominant in the air, Long passer (top 5% of his position)
Newcastle United
- Sven Botman CB · Box defender · Moneyball Score 59 · Dominant in the air, Box defender (top 1% of his position)
- Lukas Hornicek GK · Sweeper keeper · Moneyball Score 56 · Box defender, Dominant in the air (top 3% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Maxim De Cuyper
Maxim De Cuyper, 25 · Brighton & Hove Albion · LWB · Attacking wing-back · Moneyball Score 60
Maxim De Cuyper, 25, plays as a wing-back for Brighton & Hove Albion in the Premier League. Strongest for his role in expected goals and key passes. Weakest in successful dribbles. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every wing-back in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average wing-back, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- LB · Full-back Natural, 60
- LWB · Wing-back Natural, 60
- LW · Winger Accomplished, 54
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Expected goals | 0.24 / 90 | 98% |
| Key passes | 2.50 / 90 | 94% |
| Accurate crosses | 1.63 / 90 | 85% |
| Expected assists (est.) | 0.29 / 90 | 83% |
| Dribbled past | 0.44 / 90 | 82% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★½ Attacking full-back Full-back
- ★★★★½ Attacking wing-back Wing-back
- ★★★★ Creative winger Winger
Scout's notes: Gets into scoring positions, Chance creator, Crosser.
- What Maxim De Cuyper is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Maxim De Cuyper's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Brighton & Hove Albion vs Newcastle United prediction
Brighton & Hove Albion should have more of the ball, with Newcastle United likely to sit in a compact block and look to break; both sides are a threat in the air and from set pieces. Moneyball's model expects about 3.6 goals - 2.64 for Brighton & Hove Albion and 1.00 for Newcastle United - with over 2.5 goals at 70% and both teams scoring at 59%. Brighton & Hove Albion have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: Brighton & Hove Albion 3-1 Newcastle United
Brighton & Hove Albion vs Newcastle United: what the numbers say
- 1. Brighton & Hove Albion win, the likeliest result 72% on Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers
- 2. 3 or more goals 70% by the model, 3.63 goals expected
- 3. Both teams to score: yes 59% by the model
- 4. 4 or more cards the two sides average 7.1 cards a match between them
- 5. 9 or more corners 9.4 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties.
The full analysis
Moneyball reads every match in full: win, draw and loss, the most likely scores, goals and both teams to score, with the players who decide it.
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Brighton & Hove Albion vs Newcastle United: questions and answers
When is Brighton & Hove Albion vs Newcastle United?
Brighton & Hove Albion vs Newcastle United is on Sunday 29 November 2026, kick-off 14:05 UTC, in Premier League Gameweek 12.
Where is Brighton & Hove Albion vs Newcastle United played?
At The American Express Community Stadium, Falmer, Brighton & Hove Albion's home ground.
Who will win Brighton & Hove Albion vs Newcastle United?
Brighton & Hove Albion are the favourites: Brighton & Hove Albion 72%, draw 17%, Newcastle United 12%. Our prediction is Brighton & Hove Albion 3-1 Newcastle United.
Who is the player to watch in Brighton & Hove Albion vs Newcastle United?
Maxim De Cuyper of Brighton & Hove Albion: a attacking wing-back with a Moneyball Score of 60 against every wing-back in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Brighton & Hove Albion vs Newcastle United?
Moneyball's model expects about 3.6 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 70%.
Tags
Moneyball is a football statistics site. No model predicts football reliably: every figure is an estimate.