Celta de Vigo vs Villarreal Prediction and Stats | La Liga Gameweek 14
La Liga · Sunday 29 November 2026 · 17:30 UTC · Abanca-Balaídos, Vigo · updated 2026-11-15
Celta de Vigo welcome Villarreal to Abanca-Balaídos in Vigo in La Liga Gameweek 14 action on Sunday 29 November 2026, kick-off 17:30 UTC.
Celta de Vigo have played 12 matches in La Liga this season, scoring 0.8 and conceding 0.8 goals a game and winning 17% of them. At home they average 1.3 goals scored and 0.9 conceded over 7 matches, with a 100% win rate. Villarreal have played 12 matches in La Liga this season, scoring 1.4 and conceding 1.3 goals a game and winning 33% of them. Away from home they average 1.5 goals scored and 1.3 conceded over 6 matches, with a 50% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, there is little to separate them: Celta de Vigo 32%, the draw 31%, Villarreal 37%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Celta de Vigo 1.02, Villarreal 1.13.
- Over 2.5 goals: 36% · both teams to score: 44%.
- Most likely score: 0–2 (7%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (12 and 12 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model.
Celta de Vigo: form and key numbers
- Expected goals: 1.06 a match created, 1.16 conceded (goals minus xG: -2.7).
- Shots: 10.9 a match, 3.4 on target.
- Possession: 49.8% on average.
- Clean sheets: 50% of matches (50% at home).
- Both teams scored in 33% of their matches.
- Corners: 3.1 a match.
- Discipline: 1.6 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.83.
Villarreal: form and key numbers
In style Villarreal keep the ball, press high, take players on.
- Expected goals: 1.96 a match created, 1.12 conceded (goals minus xG: -6.6).
- Shots: 16.8 a match, 5.9 on target.
- Possession: 61.8% on average.
- Clean sheets: 17% of matches (0% away).
- Both teams scored in 58% of their matches.
- Corners: 7.4 a match.
- Discipline: 2.1 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.88.
Celta de Vigo vs Villarreal: season averages side by side
| Celta de Vigo | Per match this season | Villarreal |
|---|---|---|
| 12 | Matches | 12 |
| 0.8 | Goals scored | 1.4 |
| 0.8 | Goals conceded | 1.3 |
| 1.06 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.96 |
| 1.16 | xG conceded | 1.12 |
| 10.9 | Shots | 16.8 |
| 3.4 | On target | 5.9 |
| 49.8 | Possession % | 61.8 |
| 50% | Clean sheets % | 17% |
| 33% | Both teams scored % | 58% |
| 3.1 | Corners | 7.4 |
| 1.6 | Yellow cards | 2.1 |
| 6.83 | Average rating | 6.88 |
Players to watch
Celta de Vigo
- Hugo González RWF · Classic winger · Moneyball Score 56 · Crosser, Chance creator (top 1% of his position)
- Sebastián Cáceres CB · Stopper · Moneyball Score 55 · Disciplined, Dominant in the air (top 18% of his position)
Villarreal
- Alberto Moleiro LWF · Creative winger · Moneyball Score 65 · Chance creator, Crosser (top 7% of his position)
- Sergi Cardona LB · Defensive full-back · Moneyball Score 62 · Reads the game, Creator (top 2% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Tajon Buchanan
Tajon Buchanan, 27 · Villarreal · RWF · Creative winger · Moneyball Score 66
Tajon Buchanan, 27, plays as a winger for Villarreal in La Liga. Strongest for his role in fouls won and big chances created. Weakest in successful dribbles. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every winger in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average winger, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- RM · Wide midfielder Natural, 66
- RW · Winger Natural, 66
- LM · Wide midfielder Accomplished, 63
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Fouls won | 2.98 / 90 | 99% |
| Big chances created | 0.14 / 90 | 89% |
| Accurate crosses | 0.85 / 90 | 86% |
| Expected assists (est.) | 0.18 / 90 | 85% |
| Shots | 3.26 / 90 | 80% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★½ Wide playmaker Wide midfielder
- ★★★★½ Direct wide midfielder Wide midfielder
- ★★★★ Creative winger Winger
Scout's notes: Draws fouls, Big-chance creator, Crosser.
- What Tajon Buchanan is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Tajon Buchanan's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Celta de Vigo vs Villarreal prediction
Villarreal should have more of the ball, with Celta de Vigo likely to sit in a compact block and look to break; Villarreal like to take players on. Moneyball's model expects about 2.2 goals - 1.02 for Celta de Vigo and 1.13 for Villarreal - with over 2.5 goals at 36% and both teams scoring at 44%. Little separates the sides on the numbers, and a draw is the single likeliest result.
Prediction: Celta de Vigo 1-1 Villarreal
Celta de Vigo vs Villarreal: what the numbers say
- 1. A draw or either side by one goal is the likeliest shape no side above 37%
- 2. 2 goals or fewer 64% by the model, 2.15 goals expected
- 3. 4 or more cards the two sides average 5.7 cards a match between them
- 4. 10 or more corners 10.5 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties.
The full analysis
Moneyball reads every match in full: win, draw and loss, the most likely scores, goals and both teams to score, with the players who decide it.
More La Liga previews
- Athletic Club vs Espanyol Friday 20 November 2026
- Deportivo Alavés vs Deportivo A Coruña Saturday 21 November 2026
- Rayo Vallecano vs Valencia Saturday 21 November 2026
- Sevilla vs Real Betis Saturday 21 November 2026
- Real Madrid vs Celta de Vigo Saturday 21 November 2026
- FC Barcelona vs Villarreal Sunday 22 November 2026
- Racing Santander vs Real Sociedad Sunday 22 November 2026
- Osasuna vs Málaga Sunday 22 November 2026
Celta de Vigo vs Villarreal: questions and answers
When is Celta de Vigo vs Villarreal?
Celta de Vigo vs Villarreal is on Sunday 29 November 2026, kick-off 17:30 UTC, in La Liga Gameweek 14.
Where is Celta de Vigo vs Villarreal played?
At Abanca-Balaídos, Vigo, Celta de Vigo's home ground.
Who will win Celta de Vigo vs Villarreal?
It is close: Celta de Vigo 32%, draw 31%, Villarreal 37%. Our prediction is Celta de Vigo 1-1 Villarreal.
Who is the player to watch in Celta de Vigo vs Villarreal?
Tajon Buchanan of Villarreal: a creative winger with a Moneyball Score of 66 against every winger in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Celta de Vigo vs Villarreal?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.2 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 36%.
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Moneyball is a football statistics site. No model predicts football reliably: every figure is an estimate.