England vs Croatia Prediction and Stats
UEFA Nations League A · Friday 13 November 2026 · updated 2026-11-13
England welcome Croatia in UEFA Nations League A action on Friday 13 November 2026.
England have little league football behind them yet this season, so their numbers lean on the league average. Croatia have little league football behind them yet this season, so their numbers lean on the league average.
On the pre-match consensus, England are clear favourites at 71%, with the draw at 17% and Croatia at 11%.
Win probabilities
The pre-match consensus: the chance of a home win, a draw and an away win. More than 3.25 goals: 46%.
England vs Croatia: season averages side by side
| England | Per match | Croatia |
|---|---|---|
| 2.37 | Expected goals (xG) | 2.57 |
| 0.78 | xG conceded | 1.06 |
| 2.39 | Goals | 2.35 |
| 13.3 | Shots | 14.3 |
| 13.9 | Tackles | 13.6 |
| 9.8 | Fouls | 9.7 |
| 0.8 | Yellow cards | 1.0 |
Season averages per match from Sportmonks, over 40 and 36 measured matches.
England vs Croatia prediction
Moneyball's model expects about 2.7 goals - 1.49 for England and 1.23 for Croatia - with over 2.5 goals at 51% and both teams scoring at 55%. England have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: England 2-1 Croatia
England vs Croatia: what the numbers say
- 1. England win, the likeliest result 71% on the pre-match consensus
- 2. 2 or more goals 2.71 goals expected; 2.5 is close to a coin toss (51%)
- 3. Both teams to score: yes 55% by the model
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties.
Moneyball's reading
The Dixon-Coles and xG model reads every match: the win, draw and loss probabilities, the most likely scores and the goals probabilities. The full analysis of this match is part of Moneyball Premium.
More UEFA Nations League A previews
- Turkey vs Belgium Friday 13 November 2026
- Italy vs France Friday 13 November 2026
- Czechia vs Spain Friday 13 November 2026
- Netherlands vs Greece Saturday 14 November 2026
- Serbia vs Germany Saturday 14 November 2026
- Norway vs Wales Sunday 15 November 2026
England vs Croatia: questions and answers
When is England vs Croatia?
England vs Croatia is on Friday 13 November 2026, in UEFA Nations League A.
Who will win England vs Croatia?
England are the favourites: England 71%, draw 17%, Croatia 11%. Our prediction is England 2-1 Croatia.
How many goals will there be in England vs Croatia?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.7 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 51%.
Tags
Moneyball is a football statistics site. No model predicts football reliably: every figure is an estimate.