Norway vs Wales Prediction and Stats
UEFA Nations League A · Sunday 15 November 2026 · updated 2026-11-13
Norway welcome Wales in UEFA Nations League A action on Sunday 15 November 2026.
Norway have little league football behind them yet this season, so their numbers lean on the league average. Wales have little league football behind them yet this season, so their numbers lean on the league average.
On the pre-match consensus, Norway are clear favourites at 72%, with the draw at 17% and Wales at 12%.
Win probabilities
The pre-match consensus: the chance of a home win, a draw and an away win. More than 3.25 goals: 49%.
Norway vs Wales: season averages side by side
| Norway | Per match | Wales |
|---|---|---|
| 2.77 | Expected goals (xG) | 2.46 |
| 0.90 | xG conceded | 1.39 |
| 3.08 | Goals | 1.88 |
| 13.5 | Shots | 16.9 |
| 13.1 | Tackles | 17.0 |
| 9.2 | Fouls | 8.0 |
| 0.7 | Yellow cards | 0.8 |
Season averages per match from Sportmonks, over 36 and 8 measured matches.
Norway vs Wales prediction
Moneyball's model expects about 2.7 goals - 1.49 for Norway and 1.23 for Wales - with over 2.5 goals at 51% and both teams scoring at 55%. Norway have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: Norway 2-1 Wales
Norway vs Wales: what the numbers say
- 1. Norway win, the likeliest result 72% on the pre-match consensus
- 2. 2 or more goals 2.71 goals expected; 2.5 is close to a coin toss (51%)
- 3. Both teams to score: yes 55% by the model
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties.
Moneyball's reading
The Dixon-Coles and xG model reads every match: the win, draw and loss probabilities, the most likely scores and the goals probabilities. The full analysis of this match is part of Moneyball Premium.
More UEFA Nations League A previews
- Turkey vs Belgium Friday 13 November 2026
- Italy vs France Friday 13 November 2026
- Czechia vs Spain Friday 13 November 2026
- England vs Croatia Friday 13 November 2026
- Netherlands vs Greece Saturday 14 November 2026
- Serbia vs Germany Saturday 14 November 2026
Norway vs Wales: questions and answers
When is Norway vs Wales?
Norway vs Wales is on Sunday 15 November 2026, in UEFA Nations League A.
Who will win Norway vs Wales?
Norway are the favourites: Norway 72%, draw 17%, Wales 12%. Our prediction is Norway 2-1 Wales.
How many goals will there be in Norway vs Wales?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.7 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 51%.
Tags
Moneyball is a football statistics site. No model predicts football reliably: every figure is an estimate.