Serbia vs Germany Prediction and Stats
UEFA Nations League A · Saturday 14 November 2026 · updated 2026-11-13
Serbia welcome Germany in UEFA Nations League A action on Saturday 14 November 2026.
Serbia have little league football behind them yet this season, so their numbers lean on the league average. Germany have little league football behind them yet this season, so their numbers lean on the league average.
On the pre-match consensus, Germany are clear favourites at 69%, with the draw at 18% and Serbia at 14%.
Win probabilities
The pre-match consensus: the chance of a home win, a draw and an away win. More than 3.5 goals: 47%.
Serbia vs Germany: season averages side by side
| Serbia | Per match | Germany |
|---|---|---|
| 1.59 | Expected goals (xG) | 2.44 |
| 1.38 | xG conceded | 0.84 |
| 1.08 | Goals | 2.76 |
| 12.7 | Shots | 13.2 |
| 13.9 | Tackles | 14.2 |
| 11.6 | Fouls | 12.3 |
| 1.1 | Yellow cards | 1.1 |
Season averages per match from Sportmonks, over 28 and 28 measured matches.
Serbia vs Germany prediction
Moneyball's model expects about 2.7 goals - 1.49 for Serbia and 1.23 for Germany - with over 2.5 goals at 51% and both teams scoring at 55%. Germany have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to take something from the trip.
Prediction: Serbia 1-2 Germany
Serbia vs Germany: what the numbers say
- 1. Germany win, the likeliest result 69% on the pre-match consensus
- 2. 2 or more goals 2.71 goals expected; 2.5 is close to a coin toss (51%)
- 3. Both teams to score: yes 55% by the model
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties.
Moneyball's reading
The Dixon-Coles and xG model reads every match: the win, draw and loss probabilities, the most likely scores and the goals probabilities. The full analysis of this match is part of Moneyball Premium.
More UEFA Nations League A previews
- Turkey vs Belgium Friday 13 November 2026
- Italy vs France Friday 13 November 2026
- Czechia vs Spain Friday 13 November 2026
- England vs Croatia Friday 13 November 2026
- Netherlands vs Greece Saturday 14 November 2026
- Norway vs Wales Sunday 15 November 2026
Serbia vs Germany: questions and answers
When is Serbia vs Germany?
Serbia vs Germany is on Saturday 14 November 2026, in UEFA Nations League A.
Who will win Serbia vs Germany?
Germany are the favourites: Serbia 14%, draw 18%, Germany 69%. Our prediction is Serbia 1-2 Germany.
How many goals will there be in Serbia vs Germany?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.7 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 51%.
Tags
Moneyball is a football statistics site. No model predicts football reliably: every figure is an estimate.