Everton vs Liverpool Prediction and Stats | Premier League Gameweek 12
Premier League · Sunday 29 November 2026 · 12:00 UTC · Hill Dickinson Stadium · updated 2026-11-15
Everton welcome Liverpool to Hill Dickinson Stadium in Premier League Gameweek 12 action on Sunday 29 November 2026, kick-off 12:00 UTC.
Everton have played 10 matches in the Premier League this season, scoring 1.2 and conceding 1.0 goals a game and winning 40% of them. At home they average 1.6 goals scored and 1.0 conceded over 5 matches, with a 75% win rate. Liverpool have played 10 matches in the Premier League this season, scoring 1.4 and conceding 1.0 goals a game and winning 50% of them. Away from home they average 2.0 goals scored and 0.8 conceded over 5 matches, with a 80% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, there is little to separate them: Everton 36%, the draw 28%, Liverpool 36%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Everton 1.31, Liverpool 1.32.
- Over 2.5 goals: 49% · both teams to score: 54%.
- Most likely score: 1–2 (8%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (10 and 10 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model.
Everton: form and key numbers
In style Everton are strong in the air.
- Expected goals: 1.34 a match created, 1.52 conceded (goals minus xG: -1.4).
- Shots: 14.0 a match, 5.0 on target.
- Possession: 47.0% on average.
- Clean sheets: 40% of matches (50% at home).
- Both teams scored in 40% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.6 a match.
- Discipline: 1.8 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.93.
Liverpool: form and key numbers
In style Liverpool keep the ball, press high, play long and direct.
- Expected goals: 1.80 a match created, 1.43 conceded (goals minus xG: -4.0).
- Shots: 16.0 a match, 4.7 on target.
- Possession: 52.8% on average.
- Clean sheets: 40% of matches (50% away).
- Both teams scored in 40% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.3 a match.
- Discipline: 2.6 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.90.
Everton vs Liverpool: season averages side by side
| Everton | Per match this season | Liverpool |
|---|---|---|
| 10 | Matches | 10 |
| 1.2 | Goals scored | 1.4 |
| 1.0 | Goals conceded | 1.0 |
| 1.34 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.80 |
| 1.52 | xG conceded | 1.43 |
| 14.0 | Shots | 16.0 |
| 5.0 | On target | 4.7 |
| 47.0 | Possession % | 52.8 |
| 40% | Clean sheets % | 40% |
| 40% | Both teams scored % | 40% |
| 4.6 | Corners | 5.3 |
| 1.8 | Yellow cards | 2.6 |
| 6.93 | Average rating | 6.90 |
Players to watch
Everton
- James Tarkowski CB · Stopper · Moneyball Score 65 · Duel winner, Reads the game (top 3% of his position)
- Jarrad Branthwaite CB · Box defender · Moneyball Score 62 · Blocks shots, Dominant in the air (top 3% of his position)
Liverpool
- Alexis Mac Allister CMF · Playmaker · Moneyball Score 66 · Long passer, Press-resistant (top 4% of his position)
- Cody Gakpo LWF · Creative winger · Moneyball Score 65 · Chance creator, Creator (top 5% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Thierno Barry
Thierno Barry, 24 · Everton · CF · Target man · Moneyball Score 71
Thierno Barry, 24, plays as a centre-forward for Everton in the Premier League. Strongest for his role in aerial duels won and duels won. Weakest in big chances missed. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average centre-forward, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- ST · Centre-forward Natural, 71
- SS · Second striker Accomplished, 62
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Aerial duels won | 4.74 / 90 | 99% |
| Duels won | 7.37 / 90 | 96% |
| Shots | 3.79 / 90 | 91% |
| Expected goals | 0.69 / 90 | 90% |
| Goals, luck taken out | 0.67 / 90 | 89% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★★ Target man Centre-forward
- ★★★★½ Shadow striker Second striker
- ★★★★ Poacher Centre-forward
Scout's notes: Dominant in the air, Duel winner, High shot volume.
- What Thierno Barry is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Thierno Barry's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Everton vs Liverpool prediction
Liverpool should have more of the ball, with Everton likely to sit in a compact block and look to break; both sides are a threat in the air and from set pieces. Moneyball's model expects about 2.6 goals - 1.31 for Everton and 1.32 for Liverpool - with over 2.5 goals at 49% and both teams scoring at 54%. Little separates the sides on the numbers, and a draw is the single likeliest result.
Prediction: Everton 1-1 Liverpool
Everton vs Liverpool: what the numbers say
- 1. A draw or either side by one goal is the likeliest shape no side above 36%
- 2. 2 or more goals 2.63 goals expected; 2.5 is close to a coin toss (49%)
- 3. 4 or more cards the two sides average 5.4 cards a match between them
- 4. 9 or more corners 9.9 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties.
The full analysis
Moneyball reads every match in full: win, draw and loss, the most likely scores, goals and both teams to score, with the players who decide it.
More Premier League previews
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- Aston Villa vs Sunderland Saturday 21 November 2026
- AFC Bournemouth vs Nottingham Forest Saturday 21 November 2026
- Newcastle United vs Arsenal Saturday 21 November 2026
- Hull City vs Brighton & Hove Albion Sunday 22 November 2026
Everton vs Liverpool: questions and answers
When is Everton vs Liverpool?
Everton vs Liverpool is on Sunday 29 November 2026, kick-off 12:00 UTC, in Premier League Gameweek 12.
Where is Everton vs Liverpool played?
At Hill Dickinson Stadium, Everton's home ground.
Who will win Everton vs Liverpool?
It is close: Everton 36%, draw 28%, Liverpool 36%. Our prediction is Everton 1-1 Liverpool.
Who is the player to watch in Everton vs Liverpool?
Thierno Barry of Everton: a target man with a Moneyball Score of 71 against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Everton vs Liverpool?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.6 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 49%.
Tags
Moneyball is a football statistics site. No model predicts football reliably: every figure is an estimate.