NEC Nijmegen 2-2 FC Groningen: Match Report, Goals, Stats and Ratings
Eredivisie Matchday 10 · Sunday 25 October 2026 · Goffertstadion, Nijmegen · referee M. van den Kerkhof · full time
Full time: NEC Nijmegen 2-2 FC Groningen
NEC Nijmegen and FC Groningen drew 2-2 in Eredivisie Matchday 10 on Sunday 25 October 2026 at Goffertstadion. The goals: Brynjólfur Willumsson 11', Brynjólfur Willumsson 34', Clement Mutahi Bischoff 57', Noé Lebreton 71'. It went against Moneyball's pre-match estimate.
How the match unfolded
The opening goal came in the 11th minute: Brynjólfur Willumsson for FC Groningen, set up by Marco Rente. Brynjólfur Willumsson made it 0-2 to FC Groningen in the 34th minute, set up by Thom van Bergen. Clement Mutahi Bischoff made it 1-2 to NEC Nijmegen in the 57th minute, set up by Darko Nejasmic. NEC Nijmegen levelled at 2-2 in the 71st minute through Noé Lebreton.
FC Groningen led by two and were pegged back: NEC Nijmegen came back for a draw.
It was 0-2 at half-time, and the second half changed the result.
Brynjólfur Willumsson scored twice.
The referee, M. van den Kerkhof, showed 3 yellow cards: 0 to NEC Nijmegen and 3 to FC Groningen.
NEC Nijmegen: D. Schreuder, 3-4-2-1 · FC Groningen: D. Lukkien, 4-2-3-1.
Moneyball's prediction against the result
This one went against the numbers. The estimate made a NEC Nijmegen win the likeliest outcome (46%), and a draw, at 22%, is what happened. At 22%, it was a result the numbers saw about one time in 5.
On goals the estimate was close: about 3.8 expected, 4 scored.
Over 2.5 goals had been put at 73%; with 4 goals the over came in, as the estimate leaned.
Both teams to score was 72%; both did, in line with the estimate.
Computed before kick-off from both sides' season goals and expected goals as of 2026-10-25, through a Dixon-Coles score model, and left as it was.
Why it went this way
On the day the expected goals were 0.77 for NEC Nijmegen and 2.44 for FC Groningen.
NEC Nijmegen scored about 1.2 more than their chances were worth: clinical finishing, or a goalkeeper having a bad day.
FC Groningen created the better chances, 2.44 xG to 0.77, and still did not win. On chances alone, the result could easily have gone the other way.
The run of play itself went against the pre-match reading: Moneyball expected NEC Nijmegen to create more, and FC Groningen did.
NEC Nijmegen had 9 shots on target, FC Groningen 3.
FC Groningen's goalkeeper made 6 saves.
NEC Nijmegen had 59% of the ball.
Where the two sides stood before this match
NEC Nijmegen came into it with 10 Eredivisie matches played, scoring 1.7 and conceding 1.8 a match, with 1.91 expected goals for and 1.73 against, and had won 20% of their matches.
FC Groningen came into it with 10 Eredivisie matches played, scoring 2.4 and conceding 2.1 a match, with 1.60 expected goals for and 2.02 against, and had won 40% of their matches.
NEC Nijmegen vs FC Groningen: the match in numbers
| NEC Nijmegen | Match statistics | FC Groningen |
|---|---|---|
| 59% | Ball possession | 41% |
| 0.77 | Expected goals (xG) | 2.44 |
| 22 | Total shots | 9 |
| 9 | Shots on target | 3 |
| 5 | Big chances | 4 |
| 472 | Total passes | 342 |
| 84% | Pass accuracy | 77% |
| 11 | Corners | 2 |
| 9 | Fouls | 13 |
| 2 | Offsides | 3 |
| 25 | Tackles | 21 |
| 1 | Saves | 6 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 3 |
Team statistics from Sportmonks.
Player ratings and man of the match
Man of the match: Brynjólfur Willumsson (FC Groningen), rated 8.8 by Sportmonks, with 2 goals.
NEC Nijmegen
- Darko Nejasmic 8.3 1 assist
- Noé Lebreton 7.7 1 goal
- Kevin Kers 7.1
- Tjaronn Chery 7.1
- Clement Mutahi Bischoff 7.0 1 goal
FC Groningen
- Brynjólfur Willumsson 8.8 2 goals
- Etienne Vaessen 7.5
- Hans Hateboer 7.4
- Marco Rente 6.8 1 assist
- Pelle Clement 6.8
The lowest-rated starter was Gonzalo Crettaz at 6.0. Ratings run from 0 to 10; around 7.0 is a solid match.
What comes next
- NEC Nijmegen: SC Heerenveen vs NEC Nijmegen Saturday 31 October 2026 · Eredivisie
- FC Groningen: FC Groningen vs Sparta Rotterdam Sunday 1 November 2026 · Eredivisie
Each preview has Moneyball's estimate for the next match, published before kick-off and marked against the result afterwards, as this one is.
Questions about NEC Nijmegen vs FC Groningen
What was the score in NEC Nijmegen vs FC Groningen?
NEC Nijmegen 2-2 FC Groningen (half-time 0-2), Eredivisie, Sunday 25 October 2026.
Who scored in NEC Nijmegen vs FC Groningen?
Brynjólfur Willumsson 11', Brynjólfur Willumsson 34', Clement Mutahi Bischoff 57', Noé Lebreton 71'.
Did Moneyball predict NEC Nijmegen vs FC Groningen correctly?
This one went against the numbers. The estimate made a NEC Nijmegen win the likeliest outcome (46%), and a draw, at 22%, is what happened. At 22%, it was a result the numbers saw about one time in 5.
Who was man of the match in NEC Nijmegen vs FC Groningen?
Brynjólfur Willumsson, rated 8.8 by Sportmonks.
Who refereed NEC Nijmegen vs FC Groningen?
M. van den Kerkhof.
Every match, before and after
Moneyball Odds writes a preview with its estimate before every match of Europe's top five leagues and the European cups, then marks it against the result, hits and misses alike.
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over.