FC Groningen vs Sparta Rotterdam Prediction and Betting Tips | Eredivisie Gameweek 11
Eredivisie · Sunday 1 November 2026 · 15:45 UTC · Euroborg, Groningen · updated 2026-10-25
FC Groningen welcome Sparta Rotterdam to Euroborg in Groningen in Eredivisie Gameweek 11 action on Sunday 1 November 2026, kick-off 15:45 UTC.
FC Groningen have played 10 matches in Eredivisie this season, scoring 2.4 and conceding 2.1 goals a game and winning 40% of them. At home they average 2.2 goals scored and 2.2 conceded over 5 matches, with a 50% win rate. Sparta Rotterdam have played 9 matches in Eredivisie this season, scoring 1.8 and conceding 2.4 goals a game and winning 22% of them. Away from home they average 2.0 goals scored and 2.5 conceded over 4 matches, with a 50% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, FC Groningen are narrow favourites at 53%, with the draw at 20% and Sparta Rotterdam at 27%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: FC Groningen 2.46, Sparta Rotterdam 1.78.
- Over 2.5 goals: 79% · both teams to score: 76%.
- Most likely score: 3–1 (6%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (10 and 9 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
FC Groningen: form and key numbers
In style FC Groningen play long and direct.
- Expected goals: 1.60 a match created, 2.02 conceded (goals minus xG: +8.0).
- Shots: 14.4 a match, 5.5 on target.
- Possession: 48.9% on average.
- Clean sheets: 10% of matches (100% at home).
- Both teams scored in 90% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.6 a match.
- Discipline: 1.2 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.81.
Sparta Rotterdam: form and key numbers
In style Sparta Rotterdam are happy without the ball, play long and direct, create plenty of chances.
- Expected goals: 1.88 a match created, 2.13 conceded (goals minus xG: -0.9).
- Shots: 14.7 a match, 5.1 on target.
- Possession: 44.8% on average.
- Clean sheets: 0% of matches (0% away).
- Both teams scored in 78% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.7 a match.
- Discipline: 1.7 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.75.
FC Groningen vs Sparta Rotterdam: season averages side by side
| FC Groningen | Per match this season | Sparta Rotterdam |
|---|---|---|
| 10 | Matches | 9 |
| 2.4 | Goals scored | 1.8 |
| 2.1 | Goals conceded | 2.4 |
| 1.60 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.88 |
| 2.02 | xG conceded | 2.13 |
| 14.4 | Shots | 14.7 |
| 5.5 | On target | 5.1 |
| 48.9 | Possession % | 44.8 |
| 10% | Clean sheets % | 0% |
| 90% | Both teams scored % | 78% |
| 4.6 | Corners | 5.7 |
| 1.2 | Yellow cards | 1.7 |
| 6.81 | Average rating | 6.75 |
Players to watch
FC Groningen
- David van der Werff RWF · Creative winger · Moneyball Score 44 · Creator, Chance creator (top 17% of his position)
- Márk Csinger CB · Stopper · Moneyball Score 43 · Ball-winner, Duel winner (top 12% of his position)
Sparta Rotterdam
- Mitchell van Bergen RWF · Creative winger · Moneyball Score 44 · Big-chance creator, Creator (top 35% of his position)
- Casper Terho RWF · Creative winger · Moneyball Score 41 · Big-chance creator, Crosser (top 22% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Milan Zonneveld
Milan Zonneveld, 23 · Sparta Rotterdam · CF · Target man · Moneyball Score 62
Milan Zonneveld, 23, plays as a centre-forward for Sparta Rotterdam in the Eredivisie. Strongest for his role in aerial duels won and key passes. Weakest in big chances missed. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average centre-forward, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- ST · Centre-forward Natural, 62
- SS · Second striker Accomplished, 58
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Aerial duels won | 7.09 / 90 | 98% |
| Key passes | 2.47 / 90 | 92% |
| Duels won | 8.94 / 90 | 84% |
| Shot quality (xG per shot) | 0.19 xG/shot | 76% |
| Goals | 0.92 / 90 | 75% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★½ Target man Centre-forward
- ★★★★½ Complete forward Centre-forward
- ★★★★ Shadow striker Second striker
Scout's notes: Dominant in the air, Chance creator, Duel winner.
- What Milan Zonneveld is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Milan Zonneveld's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
FC Groningen vs Sparta Rotterdam prediction
FC Groningen should have more of the ball; both go long and direct. Moneyball's model expects about 4.2 goals - 2.46 for FC Groningen and 1.78 for Sparta Rotterdam - with over 2.5 goals at 79% and both teams scoring at 76%. FC Groningen have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: FC Groningen 3-1 Sparta Rotterdam
FC Groningen vs Sparta Rotterdam betting tips
- Tip 1: FC Groningen win or draw (double chance) 73% between them
- Tip 2: Over 3.5 goals 61% by the model, 4.24 goals expected
- Tip 3: Both teams to score: yes 76% by the model
- Tip 4: Under 4.5 cards the two sides average 2.9 cards a match between them
- Tip 5: Over 8.5 corners 10.3 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
More Eredivisie previews
- Sparta Rotterdam vs Ajax Sunday 25 October 2026
- AZ Alkmaar vs FC Twente Sunday 25 October 2026
- Feyenoord vs Fortuna Sittard Saturday 31 October 2026
- SC Heerenveen vs NEC Nijmegen Saturday 31 October 2026
- PSV vs Willem II Saturday 31 October 2026
- SC Cambuur vs Go Ahead Eagles Saturday 31 October 2026
- Ajax vs AZ Alkmaar Saturday 31 October 2026
- PEC Zwolle vs ADO Den Haag Sunday 1 November 2026
FC Groningen vs Sparta Rotterdam: questions and answers
When is FC Groningen vs Sparta Rotterdam?
FC Groningen vs Sparta Rotterdam is on Sunday 1 November 2026, kick-off 15:45 UTC, in Eredivisie Gameweek 11.
Where is FC Groningen vs Sparta Rotterdam played?
At Euroborg, Groningen, FC Groningen's home ground.
Who will win FC Groningen vs Sparta Rotterdam?
FC Groningen are the favourites: FC Groningen 53%, draw 20%, Sparta Rotterdam 27%. Our prediction is FC Groningen 3-1 Sparta Rotterdam.
Who is the player to watch in FC Groningen vs Sparta Rotterdam?
Milan Zonneveld of Sparta Rotterdam: a target man with a Moneyball Score of 62 against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in FC Groningen vs Sparta Rotterdam?
Moneyball's model expects about 4.2 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 79%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.