Nottingham Forest vs Chelsea Prediction and Stats | Premier League Gameweek 12
Premier League · Friday 27 November 2026 · 20:00 UTC · The City Ground, Nottingham · updated 2026-11-14
Nottingham Forest welcome Chelsea to The City Ground in Nottingham in Premier League Gameweek 12 action on Friday 27 November 2026, kick-off 20:00 UTC.
Nottingham Forest have played 10 matches in the Premier League this season, scoring 0.9 and conceding 1.3 goals a game and winning 20% of them. At home they average 0.6 goals scored and 0.8 conceded over 5 matches, with a 50% win rate. Chelsea have played 10 matches in the Premier League this season, scoring 1.9 and conceding 1.6 goals a game and winning 50% of them. Away from home they average 1.2 goals scored and 1.6 conceded over 5 matches, with a 40% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, there is little to separate them: Nottingham Forest 41%, the draw 26%, Chelsea 33%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Nottingham Forest 1.52, Chelsea 1.33.
- Over 2.5 goals: 54% · both teams to score: 58%.
- Most likely score: 2–1 (9%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (10 and 10 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model.
Nottingham Forest: form and key numbers
In style Nottingham Forest are happy without the ball, play long and direct, cross a lot.
- Expected goals: 1.59 a match created, 1.19 conceded (goals minus xG: -6.9).
- Shots: 16.3 a match, 3.6 on target.
- Possession: 45.0% on average.
- Clean sheets: 10% of matches (100% at home).
- Both teams scored in 50% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.5 a match.
- Discipline: 2.4 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.82.
Chelsea: form and key numbers
- Expected goals: 1.39 a match created, 1.44 conceded (goals minus xG: +5.1).
- Shots: 13.6 a match, 5.7 on target.
- Possession: 49.8% on average.
- Clean sheets: 20% of matches (50% away).
- Both teams scored in 50% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.5 a match.
- Discipline: 2.1 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.90.
Nottingham Forest vs Chelsea: season averages side by side
| Nottingham Forest | Per match this season | Chelsea |
|---|---|---|
| 10 | Matches | 10 |
| 0.9 | Goals scored | 1.9 |
| 1.3 | Goals conceded | 1.6 |
| 1.59 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.39 |
| 1.19 | xG conceded | 1.44 |
| 16.3 | Shots | 13.6 |
| 3.6 | On target | 5.7 |
| 45.0 | Possession % | 49.8 |
| 10% | Clean sheets % | 20% |
| 50% | Both teams scored % | 50% |
| 4.5 | Corners | 5.5 |
| 2.4 | Yellow cards | 2.1 |
| 6.82 | Average rating | 6.90 |
Players to watch
Nottingham Forest
- Morgan Gibbs-White AMF · Creator · Moneyball Score 69 · Big-chance creator, Creator (top 3% of his position)
- Ola Aina RB · Defensive full-back · Moneyball Score 65 · Dribbler, Duel winner (top 4% of his position)
Chelsea
- Wesley Fofana CB · Stopper · Moneyball Score 71 · Reads the game, Duel winner (top 1% of his position)
- Roméo Lavia DMF · Ball-winner · Moneyball Score 70 · Reads the game, Ball-winner (top 5% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: João Pedro
João Pedro, 25 · Chelsea · CF · Target man · Moneyball Score 76
João Pedro, 25, plays as a centre-forward for Chelsea in the Premier League. Strongest for his role in duels won and aerial duels won. Weakest in shots. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average centre-forward, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- ST · Centre-forward Natural, 76
- SS · Second striker Accomplished, 70
- CAM · Attacking midfielder Accomplished, 60
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Duels won | 7.77 / 90 | 93% |
| Aerial duels won | 3.80 / 90 | 91% |
| Goals, luck taken out | 0.59 / 90 | 81% |
| Shot quality (xG per shot) | 0.20 xG/shot | 81% |
| Expected goals | 0.54 / 90 | 76% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★½ Target man Centre-forward
- ★★★★½ Shadow striker Attacking midfielder
- ★★★★ Poacher Centre-forward
Scout's notes: Duel winner, Dominant in the air, Scores and makes the chances to keep scoring.
- What João Pedro is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open João Pedro's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Nottingham Forest vs Chelsea prediction
Chelsea should have more of the ball; Nottingham Forest are a threat in the air and from set pieces. Moneyball's model expects about 2.9 goals - 1.52 for Nottingham Forest and 1.33 for Chelsea - with over 2.5 goals at 54% and both teams scoring at 58%. Little separates the sides on the numbers, and a draw is the single likeliest result.
Prediction: Nottingham Forest 1-1 Chelsea
Nottingham Forest vs Chelsea: what the numbers say
- 1. A draw or either side by one goal is the likeliest shape no side above 41%
- 2. 2 or more goals 2.85 goals expected; 2.5 is close to a coin toss (54%)
- 3. Both teams to score: yes 58% by the model
- 4. 4 or more cards the two sides average 5.5 cards a match between them
- 5. 9 or more corners 10.0 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties.
The full analysis
Moneyball reads every match in full: win, draw and loss, the most likely scores, goals and both teams to score, with the players who decide it.
More Premier League previews
- Manchester City vs Fulham Saturday 21 November 2026
- Tottenham Hotspur vs Ipswich Town Saturday 21 November 2026
- Coventry City vs Crystal Palace Saturday 21 November 2026
- Chelsea vs Leeds United Saturday 21 November 2026
- Aston Villa vs Sunderland Saturday 21 November 2026
- AFC Bournemouth vs Nottingham Forest Saturday 21 November 2026
- Newcastle United vs Arsenal Saturday 21 November 2026
- Hull City vs Brighton & Hove Albion Sunday 22 November 2026
Nottingham Forest vs Chelsea: questions and answers
When is Nottingham Forest vs Chelsea?
Nottingham Forest vs Chelsea is on Friday 27 November 2026, kick-off 20:00 UTC, in Premier League Gameweek 12.
Where is Nottingham Forest vs Chelsea played?
At The City Ground, Nottingham, Nottingham Forest's home ground.
Who will win Nottingham Forest vs Chelsea?
It is close: Nottingham Forest 41%, draw 26%, Chelsea 33%. Our prediction is Nottingham Forest 1-1 Chelsea.
Who is the player to watch in Nottingham Forest vs Chelsea?
João Pedro of Chelsea: a target man with a Moneyball Score of 76 against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Nottingham Forest vs Chelsea?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.9 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 54%.
Tags
Moneyball is a football statistics site. No model predicts football reliably: every figure is an estimate.