Osasuna vs Málaga Prediction and Stats | La Liga Gameweek 13
La Liga · Sunday 22 November 2026 · 17:30 UTC · Estadio El Sadar, Pamplona · updated 2026-11-13
Osasuna welcome Málaga to Estadio El Sadar in Pamplona in La Liga Gameweek 13 action on Sunday 22 November 2026, kick-off 17:30 UTC.
Osasuna have played 12 matches in La Liga this season, scoring 1.0 and conceding 1.9 goals a game and winning 25% of them. At home they average 0.8 goals scored and 0.7 conceded over 6 matches, with a 67% win rate. Málaga have played 12 matches in La Liga this season, scoring 0.8 and conceding 1.9 goals a game and winning 0% of them. Away from home they average 0.5 goals scored and 1.8 conceded over 6 matches, with a 0% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, Osasuna are narrow favourites at 50%, with the draw at 26% and Málaga at 24%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Osasuna 1.67, Málaga 1.09.
- Over 2.5 goals: 52% · both teams to score: 54%.
- Most likely score: 2–1 (10%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (12 and 12 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model.
Osasuna: form and key numbers
In style Osasuna are happy without the ball, play long and direct, cross a lot.
- Expected goals: 1.37 a match created, 1.55 conceded (goals minus xG: -4.4).
- Shots: 11.3 a match, 4.0 on target.
- Possession: 45.3% on average.
- Clean sheets: 25% of matches (100% at home).
- Both teams scored in 50% of their matches.
- Corners: 3.7 a match.
- Discipline: 2.8 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.68.
Málaga: form and key numbers
In style Málaga take players on.
- Expected goals: 1.06 a match created, 1.79 conceded (goals minus xG: -3.7).
- Shots: 11.3 a match, 3.6 on target.
- Possession: 49.8% on average.
- Clean sheets: 8% of matches (0% away).
- Both teams scored in 67% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.1 a match.
- Discipline: 2.5 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.71.
Osasuna vs Málaga: season averages side by side
| Osasuna | Per match this season | Málaga |
|---|---|---|
| 12 | Matches | 12 |
| 1.0 | Goals scored | 0.8 |
| 1.9 | Goals conceded | 1.9 |
| 1.37 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.06 |
| 1.55 | xG conceded | 1.79 |
| 11.3 | Shots | 11.3 |
| 4.0 | On target | 3.6 |
| 45.3 | Possession % | 49.8 |
| 25% | Clean sheets % | 8% |
| 50% | Both teams scored % | 67% |
| 3.7 | Corners | 5.1 |
| 2.8 | Yellow cards | 2.5 |
| 6.68 | Average rating | 6.71 |
Players to watch
Osasuna
- Valentin Rosier RB · Defensive full-back · Moneyball Score 58 · Dribbler, Reads the game (top 14% of his position)
- Alejandro Catena CB · Box defender · Moneyball Score 54 · Hard to dribble past, Long passer (top 1% of his position)
Málaga
- Adrián Niño Heredia CF · Poacher · Moneyball Score 60 · High shot volume, Accurate shooter (top 8% of his position)
- Adam Aznou LWB · Complete wing-back · Moneyball Score 59 · Duel winner, Ball-winner (top 7% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Ante Budimir
Ante Budimir, 35 · Osasuna · CF · Target man · Moneyball Score 79
Ante Budimir, 35, plays as a centre-forward for Osasuna in La Liga. Strongest for his role in duels won and shot quality (xG per shot). Weakest in key passes. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average centre-forward, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- ST · Centre-forward Natural, 79
- SS · Second striker Accomplished, 68
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Duels won | 7.65 / 90 | 96% |
| Shot quality (xG per shot) | 0.21 xG/shot | 94% |
| Aerial duels won | 3.87 / 90 | 94% |
| Expected goals | 0.65 / 90 | 86% |
| Goals, luck taken out | 0.68 / 90 | 86% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★★ Target man Centre-forward
- ★★★★½ Shadow striker Second striker
- ★★★★½ Poacher Centre-forward
Scout's notes: Duel winner, Takes high-quality shots, Dominant in the air.
- What Ante Budimir is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Ante Budimir's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Osasuna vs Málaga prediction
Málaga should have more of the ball; Osasuna work the ball wide and cross; Málaga like to take players on. Moneyball's model expects about 2.8 goals - 1.67 for Osasuna and 1.09 for Málaga - with over 2.5 goals at 52% and both teams scoring at 54%. Osasuna have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: Osasuna 2-1 Málaga
Osasuna vs Málaga: what the numbers say
- 1. Osasuna unbeaten (win or draw) 76% between them
- 2. 2 or more goals 2.76 goals expected; 2.5 is close to a coin toss (52%)
- 3. 4 or more cards the two sides average 6.3 cards a match between them
- 4. 9 or more corners 8.8 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties.
The full analysis
Moneyball reads every match in full: win, draw and loss, the most likely scores, goals and both teams to score, with the players who decide it.
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- Real Madrid vs Celta de Vigo Saturday 21 November 2026
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Osasuna vs Málaga: questions and answers
When is Osasuna vs Málaga?
Osasuna vs Málaga is on Sunday 22 November 2026, kick-off 17:30 UTC, in La Liga Gameweek 13.
Where is Osasuna vs Málaga played?
At Estadio El Sadar, Pamplona, Osasuna's home ground.
Who will win Osasuna vs Málaga?
Osasuna are the favourites: Osasuna 50%, draw 26%, Málaga 24%. Our prediction is Osasuna 2-1 Málaga.
Who is the player to watch in Osasuna vs Málaga?
Ante Budimir of Osasuna: a target man with a Moneyball Score of 79 against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Osasuna vs Málaga?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.8 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 52%.
Tags
Moneyball is a football statistics site. No model predicts football reliably: every figure is an estimate.