Rayo Vallecano vs Valencia Prediction and Stats | La Liga Gameweek 13
La Liga · Saturday 21 November 2026 · 15:15 UTC · Estadio de Vallecas, Madrid · updated 2026-11-13
Rayo Vallecano welcome Valencia to Estadio de Vallecas in Madrid in La Liga Gameweek 13 action on Saturday 21 November 2026, kick-off 15:15 UTC.
Rayo Vallecano have played 11 matches in La Liga this season, scoring 1.4 and conceding 1.9 goals a game and winning 27% of them. At home they average 1.8 goals scored and 1.4 conceded over 5 matches, with a 100% win rate. Valencia have played 12 matches in La Liga this season, scoring 0.7 and conceding 1.7 goals a game and winning 17% of them. Away from home they average 1.0 goals scored and 1.2 conceded over 5 matches, with a 100% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, Rayo Vallecano are narrow favourites at 50%, with the draw at 26% and Valencia at 24%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Rayo Vallecano 1.62, Valencia 1.07.
- Over 2.5 goals: 50% · both teams to score: 53%.
- Most likely score: 2–1 (10%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (11 and 12 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model.
Rayo Vallecano: form and key numbers
- Expected goals: 1.33 a match created, 1.77 conceded (goals minus xG: +0.4).
- Shots: 14.4 a match, 4.8 on target.
- Possession: 51.7% on average.
- Clean sheets: 9% of matches (100% at home).
- Both teams scored in 73% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.3 a match.
- Discipline: 2.4 yellow cards a match, 2.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.75.
Valencia: form and key numbers
In style Valencia are happy without the ball, take players on.
- Expected goals: 0.97 a match created, 1.51 conceded (goals minus xG: -3.6).
- Shots: 9.8 a match, 2.8 on target.
- Possession: 43.3% on average.
- Clean sheets: 33% of matches (50% away).
- Both teams scored in 33% of their matches.
- Corners: 3.8 a match.
- Discipline: 2.5 yellow cards a match, 2.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.67.
Rayo Vallecano vs Valencia: season averages side by side
| Rayo Vallecano | Per match this season | Valencia |
|---|---|---|
| 11 | Matches | 12 |
| 1.4 | Goals scored | 0.7 |
| 1.9 | Goals conceded | 1.7 |
| 1.33 | Expected goals (xG) | 0.97 |
| 1.77 | xG conceded | 1.51 |
| 14.4 | Shots | 9.8 |
| 4.8 | On target | 2.8 |
| 51.7 | Possession % | 43.3 |
| 9% | Clean sheets % | 33% |
| 73% | Both teams scored % | 33% |
| 5.3 | Corners | 3.8 |
| 2.4 | Yellow cards | 2.5 |
| 6.75 | Average rating | 6.67 |
Players to watch
Rayo Vallecano
- Sergio Camello CF · Poacher · Moneyball Score 57 · Accurate shooter, Scores and makes the chances to keep scoring (top 15% of his position)
- Adrià Pedrosa LB · Attacking full-back · Moneyball Score 55 · Creator, Chance creator (top 5% of his position)
Valencia
- Guido Rodríguez DMF · Ball-winner · Moneyball Score 65 · Duel winner, Ball-winner (top 4% of his position)
- David Otorbi RWF · Creative winger · Moneyball Score 59 · Big-chance creator, Dribbler (top 23% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Unai López
Unai López, 31 · Rayo Vallecano · CMF · Playmaker · Moneyball Score 69
Unai López, 31, plays as a central midfielder for Rayo Vallecano in La Liga. Strongest for his role in long balls and key passes. Weakest in expected goals. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every central midfielder in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average central midfielder, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- CM · Central midfielder Natural, 69
- DM · Defensive midfielder Natural, 65
- CAM · Attacking midfielder Competent, 20
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Long balls | 4.99 / 90 | 98% |
| Key passes | 2.55 / 90 | 96% |
| Expected assists (est.) | 0.28 / 90 | 96% |
| Passes | 66.79 / 90 | 88% |
| Tackles | 2.24 / 90 | 67% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★½ Playmaker Central midfielder
- ★★★½ Deep-lying playmaker Defensive midfielder
- ★★★ Ball-winning midfielder Central midfielder
Scout's notes: Long passer, Chance creator, Creator.
- What Unai López is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Unai López's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Rayo Vallecano vs Valencia prediction
Rayo Vallecano should have more of the ball, with Valencia likely to sit in a compact block and look to break; Valencia like to take players on. Moneyball's model expects about 2.7 goals - 1.62 for Rayo Vallecano and 1.07 for Valencia - with over 2.5 goals at 50% and both teams scoring at 53%. Rayo Vallecano have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: Rayo Vallecano 2-1 Valencia
Rayo Vallecano vs Valencia: what the numbers say
- 1. Rayo Vallecano unbeaten (win or draw) 76% between them
- 2. 2 or more goals 2.69 goals expected; 2.5 is close to a coin toss (50%)
- 3. 4 or more cards the two sides average 8.9 cards a match between them
- 4. 9 or more corners 9.1 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties.
The full analysis
Moneyball reads every match in full: win, draw and loss, the most likely scores, goals and both teams to score, with the players who decide it.
More La Liga previews
- Athletic Club vs Espanyol Friday 20 November 2026
- Deportivo Alavés vs Deportivo A Coruña Saturday 21 November 2026
- Sevilla vs Real Betis Saturday 21 November 2026
- Real Madrid vs Celta de Vigo Saturday 21 November 2026
- FC Barcelona vs Villarreal Sunday 22 November 2026
- Racing Santander vs Real Sociedad Sunday 22 November 2026
- Osasuna vs Málaga Sunday 22 November 2026
- Getafe vs Atlético de Madrid Sunday 22 November 2026
Rayo Vallecano vs Valencia: questions and answers
When is Rayo Vallecano vs Valencia?
Rayo Vallecano vs Valencia is on Saturday 21 November 2026, kick-off 15:15 UTC, in La Liga Gameweek 13.
Where is Rayo Vallecano vs Valencia played?
At Estadio de Vallecas, Madrid, Rayo Vallecano's home ground.
Who will win Rayo Vallecano vs Valencia?
Rayo Vallecano are the favourites: Rayo Vallecano 50%, draw 26%, Valencia 24%. Our prediction is Rayo Vallecano 2-1 Valencia.
Who is the player to watch in Rayo Vallecano vs Valencia?
Unai López of Rayo Vallecano: a playmaker with a Moneyball Score of 69 against every central midfielder in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Rayo Vallecano vs Valencia?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.7 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 50%.
Tags
Moneyball is a football statistics site. No model predicts football reliably: every figure is an estimate.