Sunderland vs Tottenham Hotspur Prediction and Stats | Premier League Gameweek 12
Premier League · Sunday 29 November 2026 · 14:05 UTC · Stadium of Light, Sunderland · updated 2026-11-15
Sunderland welcome Tottenham Hotspur to Stadium of Light in Sunderland in Premier League Gameweek 12 action on Sunday 29 November 2026, kick-off 14:05 UTC.
Sunderland have played 10 matches in the Premier League this season, scoring 0.8 and conceding 1.7 goals a game and winning 20% of them. At home they average 0.4 goals scored and 0.8 conceded over 5 matches, with a 100% win rate. Tottenham Hotspur have played 10 matches in the Premier League this season, scoring 1.0 and conceding 1.1 goals a game and winning 30% of them. Away from home they average 0.6 goals scored and 1.0 conceded over 5 matches, with a 33% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, there is little to separate them: Sunderland 36%, the draw 29%, Tottenham Hotspur 36%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Sunderland 1.25, Tottenham Hotspur 1.25.
- Over 2.5 goals: 45% · both teams to score: 52%.
- Most likely score: 2–0 (6%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (10 and 10 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model.
Sunderland: form and key numbers
In style Sunderland play long and direct, are strong in the air.
- Expected goals: 1.58 a match created, 1.48 conceded (goals minus xG: -7.8).
- Shots: 12.2 a match, 3.6 on target.
- Possession: 47.7% on average.
- Clean sheets: 30% of matches (100% at home).
- Both teams scored in 40% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.0 a match.
- Discipline: 2.0 yellow cards a match, 3.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.70.
Tottenham Hotspur: form and key numbers
In style Tottenham Hotspur keep the ball, press high, cross a lot.
- Expected goals: 1.34 a match created, 1.30 conceded (goals minus xG: -3.5).
- Shots: 15.5 a match, 4.4 on target.
- Possession: 62.8% on average.
- Clean sheets: 40% of matches (50% away).
- Both teams scored in 30% of their matches.
- Corners: 7.5 a match.
- Discipline: 1.6 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.85.
Sunderland vs Tottenham Hotspur: season averages side by side
| Sunderland | Per match this season | Tottenham Hotspur |
|---|---|---|
| 10 | Matches | 10 |
| 0.8 | Goals scored | 1.0 |
| 1.7 | Goals conceded | 1.1 |
| 1.58 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.34 |
| 1.48 | xG conceded | 1.30 |
| 12.2 | Shots | 15.5 |
| 3.6 | On target | 4.4 |
| 47.7 | Possession % | 62.8 |
| 30% | Clean sheets % | 40% |
| 40% | Both teams scored % | 30% |
| 4.0 | Corners | 7.5 |
| 2.0 | Yellow cards | 1.6 |
| 6.70 | Average rating | 6.85 |
Players to watch
Sunderland
- Nordi Mukiele RB · Defensive full-back · Moneyball Score 67 · Reads the game, Duel winner (top 1% of his position)
- Trai Hume RB · Defensive full-back · Moneyball Score 57 · Crosser, Duel winner (top 4% of his position)
Tottenham Hotspur
- Jan Paul van Hecke CB · Ball-playing centre-back · Moneyball Score 65 · Ball circulator, Dominant in the air (top 1% of his position)
- Mateus Fernandes CMF · Playmaker · Moneyball Score 57 · Ball circulator, Creator (top 7% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Brian Brobbey
Brian Brobbey, 24 · Sunderland · CF · Target man · Moneyball Score 61
Brian Brobbey, 24, plays as a centre-forward for Sunderland in the Premier League. Strongest for his role in shot quality (xG per shot) and aerial duels won. Weakest in big chances missed. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average centre-forward, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- ST · Centre-forward Natural, 61
- SS · Second striker Accomplished, 55
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Shot quality (xG per shot) | 0.23 xG/shot | 96% |
| Aerial duels won | 3.03 / 90 | 86% |
| Expected goals | 0.57 / 90 | 82% |
| Goals, luck taken out | 0.54 / 90 | 79% |
| Duels won | 5.63 / 90 | 79% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★ Target man Centre-forward
- ★★★★ Poacher Centre-forward
- ★★★★ Shadow striker Second striker
Scout's notes: Takes high-quality shots, Dominant in the air, Gets into scoring positions.
- What Brian Brobbey is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Brian Brobbey's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Sunderland vs Tottenham Hotspur prediction
Tottenham Hotspur should have more of the ball, with Sunderland likely to sit in a compact block and look to break; Sunderland are a threat in the air and from set pieces; Tottenham Hotspur work the ball wide and cross. Moneyball's model expects about 2.5 goals - 1.25 for Sunderland and 1.25 for Tottenham Hotspur - with over 2.5 goals at 45% and both teams scoring at 52%. Little separates the sides on the numbers, and a draw is the single likeliest result.
Prediction: Sunderland 1-1 Tottenham Hotspur
Sunderland vs Tottenham Hotspur: what the numbers say
- 1. A draw or either side by one goal is the likeliest shape no side above 36%
- 2. 2 goals or fewer 55% by the model, 2.49 goals expected
- 3. 4 or more cards the two sides average 7.6 cards a match between them
- 4. 10 or more corners 11.5 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties.
The full analysis
Moneyball reads every match in full: win, draw and loss, the most likely scores, goals and both teams to score, with the players who decide it.
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Sunderland vs Tottenham Hotspur: questions and answers
When is Sunderland vs Tottenham Hotspur?
Sunderland vs Tottenham Hotspur is on Sunday 29 November 2026, kick-off 14:05 UTC, in Premier League Gameweek 12.
Where is Sunderland vs Tottenham Hotspur played?
At Stadium of Light, Sunderland, Sunderland's home ground.
Who will win Sunderland vs Tottenham Hotspur?
It is close: Sunderland 36%, draw 29%, Tottenham Hotspur 36%. Our prediction is Sunderland 1-1 Tottenham Hotspur.
Who is the player to watch in Sunderland vs Tottenham Hotspur?
Brian Brobbey of Sunderland: a target man with a Moneyball Score of 61 against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Sunderland vs Tottenham Hotspur?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.5 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 45%.
Tags
Moneyball is a football statistics site. No model predicts football reliably: every figure is an estimate.