MoneyballDixon-Coles · xG fusion
Back to Moneyball

FC Twente 2-2 Ajax: Match Report, Goals, Stats and Ratings

Full time: FC Twente 2-2 Ajax

FC Twente and Ajax drew 2-2 in Eredivisie Matchday 12 on Sunday 8 November 2026 at De Grolsch Veste. The goals: Tolu Arokodare 3', Rayane Bounida 66', Wout Weghorst 90+5'. Moneyball's pre-match estimate had the result right.

How the match unfolded

Ajax struck first through Tolu Arokodare in the 3rd minute, set up by Oscar Gloukh. Rayane Bounida made it 0-2 to Ajax in the 66th minute, set up by Oscar Gloukh. An own goal by Dies Janse made it 1-2 to FC Twente in the 68th minute. FC Twente levelled at 2-2 in the 90th minute (+5) through Wout Weghorst from the penalty spot. A late equaliser, and a point saved.

Ajax led by two and were pegged back: FC Twente came back for a draw.

It was 0-1 at half-time, and the second half changed the result.

The referee, J. Kooij, showed 8 yellow cards: 3 to FC Twente and 5 to Ajax.

FC Twente: J. van den Brom, 4-2-3-1 · Ajax: M. Sánchez Muñoz, 4-2-3-1.

Moneyball's prediction against the result

A correct call: the Match Board's pick was Ajax +0.75, and 2-2 bears it out.

The estimate's most likely result was a FC Twente win at 51%; a draw, at 22%, is what happened. Its single most likely score was 1-1 (9%).

On goals the estimate was close: about 3.6 expected, 4 scored.

Over 2.5 goals had been put at 68%; with 4 goals the over came in, as the estimate leaned.

Both teams to score was 68%; both did, in line with the estimate.

Computed before kick-off from both sides' season goals and expected goals as of 2026-11-07, through a Dixon-Coles score model, and left as it was.

Why it went this way

On the day the expected goals were 0.53 for FC Twente and 3.12 for Ajax.

FC Twente scored about 1.5 more than their chances were worth: clinical finishing, or a goalkeeper having a bad day.

Ajax left about 1.1 goals' worth of chances on the pitch.

Ajax created the better chances, 3.12 xG to 0.53, and still did not win. On chances alone, the result could easily have gone the other way.

The run of play itself went against the pre-match reading: Moneyball expected FC Twente to create more, and Ajax did.

FC Twente had 5 shots on target, Ajax 2.

FC Twente had 56% of the ball.

Where the two sides stood before this match

FC Twente came into it with 12 Eredivisie matches played, scoring 2.5 and conceding 1.0 a match, with 2.61 expected goals for and 0.78 against, and had won 58% of their matches.

Ajax came into it with 12 Eredivisie matches played, scoring 2.7 and conceding 1.3 a match, with 2.24 expected goals for and 1.44 against, and had won 58% of their matches.

FC Twente vs Ajax: the match in numbers

FC TwenteMatch statisticsAjax
56%Ball possession44%
0.53Expected goals (xG)3.12
23Total shots6
5Shots on target2
2Big chances2
517Total passes420
85%Pass accuracy85%
9Corners2
10Fouls11
3Offsides2
22Tackles14
0Saves4
3Yellow cards6

Team statistics from Sportmonks.

Player ratings and man of the match

Man of the match: Oscar Gloukh (Ajax), rated 7.9 by Sportmonks, with 2 assists.

FC Twente

Ajax

The lowest-rated starter was Joël Drommel at 6.1. Ratings run from 0 to 10; around 7.0 is a solid match.

What comes next

Each preview has Moneyball's estimate for the next match, published before kick-off and marked against the result afterwards, as this one is.

Questions about FC Twente vs Ajax

What was the score in FC Twente vs Ajax?

FC Twente 2-2 Ajax (half-time 0-1), Eredivisie, Sunday 8 November 2026.

Who scored in FC Twente vs Ajax?

Tolu Arokodare 3', Rayane Bounida 66', Wout Weghorst 90+5'.

Did Moneyball predict FC Twente vs Ajax correctly?

A correct call: the Match Board's pick was Ajax +0.75, and 2-2 bears it out.

Who was man of the match in FC Twente vs Ajax?

Oscar Gloukh, rated 7.9 by Sportmonks.

Who refereed FC Twente vs Ajax?

J. Kooij.

Every match, before and after

Moneyball writes a preview with its estimate before every match of Europe's top five leagues and the European cups, then marks it against the result, hits and misses alike.

Open Moneyball Match Live All match reports

Moneyball is a football statistics site. No model predicts football reliably: every figure is an estimate.