Ajax vs ADO Den Haag Prediction and Stats | Eredivisie Gameweek 13
Eredivisie · Sunday 22 November 2026 · 13:30 UTC · Johan Cruijff Arena, Amsterdam · updated 2026-11-13
Ajax welcome ADO Den Haag to Johan Cruijff Arena in Amsterdam in Eredivisie Gameweek 13 action on Sunday 22 November 2026, kick-off 13:30 UTC.
Ajax have played 12 matches in Eredivisie this season, scoring 2.7 and conceding 1.3 goals a game and winning 58% of them. At home they average 2.0 goals scored and 1.5 conceded over 6 matches, with a 29% win rate. ADO Den Haag have played 12 matches in Eredivisie this season, scoring 1.3 and conceding 2.1 goals a game and winning 17% of them. Away from home they average 0.8 goals scored and 2.0 conceded over 6 matches, with a 0% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, Ajax are clear favourites at 72%, with the draw at 16% and ADO Den Haag at 11%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Ajax 2.64, ADO Den Haag 0.98.
- Over 2.5 goals: 70% · both teams to score: 59%.
- Most likely score: 3–1 (8%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (12 and 12 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model.
Ajax: form and key numbers
In style Ajax keep the ball, press high, cross a lot.
- Expected goals: 2.24 a match created, 1.44 conceded (goals minus xG: +5.1).
- Shots: 19.8 a match, 6.6 on target.
- Possession: 59.4% on average.
- Clean sheets: 25% of matches (33% at home).
- Both teams scored in 75% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.8 a match.
- Discipline: 2.2 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 7.03.
ADO Den Haag: form and key numbers
In style ADO Den Haag play long and direct.
- Expected goals: 1.12 a match created, 1.98 conceded (goals minus xG: +2.6).
- Shots: 12.4 a match, 3.9 on target.
- Possession: 49.7% on average.
- Clean sheets: 0% of matches (0% away).
- Both teams scored in 75% of their matches.
- Corners: 3.9 a match.
- Discipline: 1.8 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.72.
Ajax vs ADO Den Haag: season averages side by side
| Ajax | Per match this season | ADO Den Haag |
|---|---|---|
| 12 | Matches | 12 |
| 2.7 | Goals scored | 1.3 |
| 1.3 | Goals conceded | 2.1 |
| 2.24 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.12 |
| 1.44 | xG conceded | 1.98 |
| 19.8 | Shots | 12.4 |
| 6.6 | On target | 3.9 |
| 59.4 | Possession % | 49.7 |
| 25% | Clean sheets % | 0% |
| 75% | Both teams scored % | 75% |
| 5.8 | Corners | 3.9 |
| 2.2 | Yellow cards | 1.8 |
| 7.03 | Average rating | 6.72 |
Players to watch
Ajax
- Oscar Gloukh AMF · Dribbling playmaker · Moneyball Score 53 · Dribbler, Big-chance creator (top 8% of his position)
- Steven Berghuis RWF · Creative winger · Moneyball Score 46 · Crosser, Chance creator (top 11% of his position)
ADO Den Haag
- Kilian Nikièma GK · Ball-playing keeper · Moneyball Score 40 · Long passer, Secure passer (top 15% of his position)
- Juho Kilo CMF · Playmaker · Moneyball Score 38 · Long passer, Press-resistant (top 7% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Tolu Arokodare
Tolu Arokodare, 25 · Ajax · CF · Poacher · Moneyball Score 56
Tolu Arokodare, 25, plays as a centre-forward for Ajax in the Eredivisie. Strongest for his role in shots and goals, luck taken out. Weakest in key passes. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average centre-forward, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- ST · Centre-forward Natural, 56
- SS · Second striker Accomplished, 51
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Shots | 4.57 / 90 | 88% |
| Goals, luck taken out | 0.69 / 90 | 83% |
| Expected goals | 0.61 / 90 | 80% |
| Aerial duels won | 4.43 / 90 | 70% |
| Shot quality (xG per shot) | 0.13 xG/shot | 47% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★★ Shadow striker Second striker
- ★★★½ Poacher Centre-forward
- ★★★ Target man Centre-forward
Scout's notes: High shot volume, Scores and makes the chances to keep scoring.
- What Tolu Arokodare is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Tolu Arokodare's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Ajax vs ADO Den Haag prediction
Ajax should have more of the ball, with ADO Den Haag likely to sit in a compact block and look to break; Ajax work the ball wide and cross; ADO Den Haag go long and direct. Moneyball's model expects about 3.6 goals - 2.64 for Ajax and 0.98 for ADO Den Haag - with over 2.5 goals at 70% and both teams scoring at 59%. Ajax have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: Ajax 3-1 ADO Den Haag
Ajax vs ADO Den Haag: what the numbers say
- 1. Ajax win, the likeliest result 72% on Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers
- 2. 3 or more goals 70% by the model, 3.63 goals expected
- 3. Both teams to score: yes 59% by the model
- 4. 4 or more cards the two sides average 4.9 cards a match between them
- 5. 9 or more corners 9.8 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties.
The full analysis
Moneyball reads every match in full: win, draw and loss, the most likely scores, goals and both teams to score, with the players who decide it.
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Ajax vs ADO Den Haag: questions and answers
When is Ajax vs ADO Den Haag?
Ajax vs ADO Den Haag is on Sunday 22 November 2026, kick-off 13:30 UTC, in Eredivisie Gameweek 13.
Where is Ajax vs ADO Den Haag played?
At Johan Cruijff Arena, Amsterdam, Ajax's home ground.
Who will win Ajax vs ADO Den Haag?
Ajax are the favourites: Ajax 72%, draw 16%, ADO Den Haag 11%. Our prediction is Ajax 3-1 ADO Den Haag.
Who is the player to watch in Ajax vs ADO Den Haag?
Tolu Arokodare of Ajax: a poacher with a Moneyball Score of 56 against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Ajax vs ADO Den Haag?
Moneyball's model expects about 3.6 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 70%.
Tags
Moneyball is a football statistics site. No model predicts football reliably: every figure is an estimate.