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FC Twente 3-1 Pafos FC: Match Report, Goals, Stats and Ratings

Full time: FC Twente 3-1 Pafos FC

FC Twente won 3-1 at home to Pafos FC in Europa Conference League Matchday 3 on Thursday 5 November 2026. The goals: Lelê 39', Ruud Nijstad 62', Sondre Ørjasæter 76', Daouda Weidmann 82'. Moneyball's pre-match estimate had the result right.

How FC Twente won it

Lelê put Pafos FC ahead in the 39th minute. FC Twente levelled at 1-1 in the 62nd minute through Ruud Nijstad, set up by Daouda Weidmann. FC Twente turned it round: Sondre Ørjasæter made it 2-1 in the 76th minute, set up by Younes Taha. Daouda Weidmann made it 3-1 to FC Twente in the 82nd minute, set up by Thomas van den Belt.

It was 0-1 at half-time, and the second half turned the match the other way.

The lead changed hands once.

Lelê of Pafos FC was sent off in the 64th minute for a second yellow card. The referee, M. Očenáš, showed 2 yellow cards: 1 to FC Twente and 1 to Pafos FC.

FC Twente: J. van den Brom, 4-1-4-1 · Pafos FC: R. Andrade Silva Sá Pinto, 4-5-1.

Moneyball's prediction against the result

Moneyball's Match Board pick, Over 3.25, was right: 3-1 bears it out.

The estimate's most likely result was a FC Twente win at 73%, and that is what happened. Its single most likely score was 2-0 (9%).

On goals the estimate was close: about 3.6 expected, 4 scored.

Over 2.5 goals had been put at 69%; with 4 goals the over came in, as the estimate leaned.

Both teams to score was 58%; both did, in line with the estimate.

The pre-match consensus had a FC Twente win at 69%, the same lean as Moneyball.

Computed before kick-off from both sides' season goals and expected goals as of 2026-11-05, through a Dixon-Coles score model, and left as it was.

Why it went this way

FC Twente had 13 shots on target, Pafos FC 4.

Pafos FC's goalkeeper made 10 saves.

FC Twente had 77% of the ball and turned it into the win.

A red card changed the shape of the match, and no pre-match model can see one coming.

Where the two sides stood before this match

FC Twente came into it with 3 Europa Conference League matches played, scoring 2.7 and conceding 0.7 a match, with 2.86 expected goals for and – against, and had won 100% of their matches.

Pafos FC came into it with 3 Europa Conference League matches played, scoring 1.0 and conceding 2.3 a match, with 1.16 expected goals for and – against, and had won 0% of their matches.

FC Twente vs Pafos FC: the match in numbers

FC TwenteMatch statisticsPafos FC
77%Ball possession23%
30Total shots6
13Shots on target4
7Big chances3
740Total passes229
91%Pass accuracy72%
12Corners1
13Fouls9
1Offsides2
22Tackles12
3Saves10
1Yellow cards2
0Red cards1

Team statistics from Sportmonks.

Player ratings and man of the match

Man of the match: Daouda Weidmann (FC Twente), rated 8.9 by Sportmonks, with 1 goal, 1 assist.

FC Twente

Pafos FC

The lowest-rated starter was Bruno at 6.0. Ratings run from 0 to 10; around 7.0 is a solid match.

What comes next

Each preview has Moneyball's estimate for the next match, published before kick-off and marked against the result afterwards, as this one is.

Questions about FC Twente vs Pafos FC

What was the score in FC Twente vs Pafos FC?

FC Twente 3-1 Pafos FC (half-time 0-1), Europa Conference League, Thursday 5 November 2026.

Who scored in FC Twente vs Pafos FC?

Lelê 39', Ruud Nijstad 62', Sondre Ørjasæter 76', Daouda Weidmann 82'.

Did Moneyball predict FC Twente vs Pafos FC correctly?

Moneyball's Match Board pick, Over 3.25, was right: 3-1 bears it out.

Who was man of the match in FC Twente vs Pafos FC?

Daouda Weidmann, rated 8.9 by Sportmonks.

Who refereed FC Twente vs Pafos FC?

M. Očenáš.

Every match, before and after

Moneyball writes a preview with its estimate before every match of Europe's top five leagues and the European cups, then marks it against the result, hits and misses alike.

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Moneyball is a football statistics site. No model predicts football reliably: every figure is an estimate.