Pafos FC vs FC Midtjylland Prediction and Stats | Europa Conference League Gameweek 4
Europa Conference League · Thursday 26 November 2026 · 17:45 UTC · Stadio Stelios Kyriakides, Paphos · updated 2026-11-13
Pafos FC welcome FC Midtjylland to Stadio Stelios Kyriakides in Paphos in Europa Conference League Gameweek 4 action on Thursday 26 November 2026, kick-off 17:45 UTC.
Pafos FC have played 3 matches in the Europa Conference League this season, scoring 1.0 and conceding 2.3 goals a game and winning 0% of them. At home they average 1.0 goals scored and 1.0 conceded over 1 match, with a 100% win rate. FC Midtjylland have played 3 matches in the Europa Conference League this season, scoring 0.7 and conceding 2.7 goals a game and winning 0% of them. Away from home they average 1.0 goals scored and 1.0 conceded over 1 match, with a 50% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, Pafos FC are narrow favourites at 44%, with the draw at 25% and FC Midtjylland at 31%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Pafos FC 1.64, FC Midtjylland 1.34.
- Over 2.5 goals: 57% · both teams to score: 60%.
- Most likely score: 2–1 (9%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (3 and 3 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model.
Pafos FC: form and key numbers
- Expected goals: 1.16 a match created (goals minus xG: +2.2).
- Shots: 12.8 a match, 5.0 on target.
- Possession: 42.8% on average.
- Clean sheets: 0% of matches (0% at home).
- Both teams scored in 100% of their matches.
- Corners: 3.8 a match.
- Discipline: 2.4 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.64.
FC Midtjylland: form and key numbers
- Expected goals: 1.78 a match created (goals minus xG: +0.6).
- Shots: 14.4 a match, 6.3 on target.
- Possession: 51.7% on average.
- Clean sheets: 29% of matches (50% away).
- Both teams scored in 57% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.6 a match.
- Discipline: 1.7 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.84.
Pafos FC vs FC Midtjylland: season averages side by side
| Pafos FC | Per match this season | FC Midtjylland |
|---|---|---|
| 3 | Matches | 3 |
| 1.0 | Goals scored | 0.7 |
| 2.3 | Goals conceded | 2.7 |
| 1.16 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.78 |
| 12.8 | Shots | 14.4 |
| 5.0 | On target | 6.3 |
| 42.8 | Possession % | 51.7 |
| 0% | Clean sheets % | 29% |
| 100% | Both teams scored % | 57% |
| 3.8 | Corners | 5.6 |
| 2.4 | Yellow cards | 1.7 |
| 6.64 | Average rating | 6.84 |
Pafos FC vs FC Midtjylland prediction
Moneyball's model expects about 3.0 goals - 1.64 for Pafos FC and 1.34 for FC Midtjylland - with over 2.5 goals at 57% and both teams scoring at 60%. Pafos FC have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: Pafos FC 2-1 FC Midtjylland
Pafos FC vs FC Midtjylland: what the numbers say
- 1. Pafos FC unbeaten (win or draw) 69% between them
- 2. 3 or more goals 57% by the model, 2.98 goals expected
- 3. Both teams to score: yes 60% by the model
- 4. 4 or more cards the two sides average 6.1 cards a match between them
- 5. 9 or more corners 9.4 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties.
The full analysis
Moneyball reads every match in full: win, draw and loss, the most likely scores, goals and both teams to score, with the players who decide it.
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Pafos FC vs FC Midtjylland: questions and answers
When is Pafos FC vs FC Midtjylland?
Pafos FC vs FC Midtjylland is on Thursday 26 November 2026, kick-off 17:45 UTC, in Europa Conference League Gameweek 4.
Where is Pafos FC vs FC Midtjylland played?
At Stadio Stelios Kyriakides, Paphos, Pafos FC's home ground.
Who will win Pafos FC vs FC Midtjylland?
Pafos FC are the favourites: Pafos FC 44%, draw 25%, FC Midtjylland 31%. Our prediction is Pafos FC 2-1 FC Midtjylland.
How many goals will there be in Pafos FC vs FC Midtjylland?
Moneyball's model expects about 3.0 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 57%.
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Moneyball is a football statistics site. No model predicts football reliably: every figure is an estimate.