Union Berlin vs Borussia Dortmund Prediction and Betting Tips | Bundesliga Gameweek 6
Bundesliga · Saturday 17 October 2026 · updated 2026-10-10
Union Berlin welcome Borussia Dortmund to Stadion An der Alten Försterei in Berlin in Bundesliga Gameweek 6 action on Saturday 17 October 2026.
Union Berlin have played 4 matches in the Bundesliga this season, scoring 1.0 and conceding 4.3 goals a game and winning 0% of them. At home they average 2.0 goals scored and 3.0 conceded over 2 matches, with a 0% win rate. Borussia Dortmund have played 4 matches in the Bundesliga this season, scoring 2.3 and conceding 0.5 goals a game and winning 100% of them. Away from home they average 2.0 goals scored and 1.0 conceded over 2 matches, with a 50% win rate.
On the bookmakers' prices, with their margin taken out, Borussia Dortmund are narrow favourites at 57%, with the draw at 22% and Union Berlin at 21%.
The odds
Decimal odds; the percentages are the chances the prices imply once the bookmaker's margin (10.4% on this market) is taken out. The main Asian handicap is Union Berlin +0.75 at 2.08, Borussia Dortmund at 1.83. The main goals line is 3.25: over 1.99, under 1.89, which gives over 49%.
Union Berlin: form and key numbers
In style Union Berlin are happy without the ball, are strong in the air.
- Expected goals: 1.26 a match created, 2.48 conceded (goals minus xG: -1.0).
- Shots: 11.8 a match, 5.0 on target.
- Possession: 45.8% on average.
- Clean sheets: 0% of matches (0% at home).
- Both teams scored in 50% of their matches.
- Corners: 3.0 a match.
- Discipline: 2.5 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.57.
Borussia Dortmund: form and key numbers
- Expected goals: 1.72 a match created, 0.96 conceded (goals minus xG: +2.1).
- Shots: 14.5 a match, 5.3 on target.
- Possession: 48.8% on average.
- Clean sheets: 75% of matches (33% away).
- Both teams scored in 25% of their matches.
- Corners: 3.8 a match.
- Discipline: 2.5 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 7.01.
Union Berlin vs Borussia Dortmund: season averages side by side
| Union Berlin | Per match | Borussia Dortmund |
|---|---|---|
| 1.26 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.72 |
| 2.48 | xG conceded | 0.96 |
| 1.00 | Goals | 2.25 |
| 11.8 | Shots | 14.5 |
| 5.0 | Shots on target | 5.3 |
| 1.3 | Big chances missed | 2.3 |
| 38.2 | Pressure share % | 47.8 |
| 17.8 | Tackles | 18.5 |
| 10.8 | Fouls | 11.3 |
| 2.5 | Yellow cards | 2.5 |
Season averages per match from Sportmonks, over 4 and 4 measured matches.
Players to watch
Union Berlin
- Leopold Querfeld CB · Stopper · Moneyball Score 70 · Box defender, Dominant in the air (top 2% of his position)
- Felix Uduokhai CB · Box defender · Moneyball Score 61 · Blocks shots, Duel winner (top 1% of his position)
Borussia Dortmund
- Waldemar Anton CB · Box defender · Moneyball Score 64 · Box defender, Reads the game (top 1% of his position)
- Jobe Samuel Patrick Bellingham CMF · Ball-winning midfielder · Moneyball Score 61 · Reads the game, Creator (top 3% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Serhou Guirassy
Serhou Guirassy, 30 · Borussia Dortmund · CF · Complete forward · Moneyball Score 61
Serhou Guirassy, 30, plays as a centre-forward for Borussia Dortmund in the Bundesliga. Strongest for his role in key passes and shots on target. Weakest in big chances missed. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average centre-forward, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- ST · Centre-forward Natural, 61
- SS · Second striker Competent, 53
- LW · Winger Competent, 52
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Key passes | 1.85 / 90 | 86% |
| Shots on target | 54% | 74% |
| Shots | 3.43 / 90 | 72% |
| Aerial duels won | 2.64 / 90 | 68% |
| Goals | 0.53 / 90 | 62% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★½ Shadow striker Second striker
- ★★★½ Complete forward Centre-forward
- ★★★ Target man Centre-forward
Scout's notes: Chance creator.
- What Serhou Guirassy is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Serhou Guirassy's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Union Berlin vs Borussia Dortmund prediction
Borussia Dortmund should have more of the ball; Union Berlin are a threat in the air and from set pieces. Moneyball's model expects about 3.6 goals - 1.15 for Union Berlin and 2.45 for Borussia Dortmund - with over 2.5 goals at 70% and both teams scoring at 63%. Borussia Dortmund have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to take something from the trip.
Prediction: Union Berlin 1-2 Borussia Dortmund
The full model, every line of this match, in the Match Centre
Union Berlin vs Borussia Dortmund betting tips
- Tip 1: Borussia Dortmund to win 57% on the bookmakers' prices, with their margin taken out
- Tip 2: Over 2.5 goals 70% by the model, 3.60 goals expected
- Tip 3: Both teams to score: yes 63% by the model
- Tip 4: Over 3.5 cards the two sides average 6.0 cards a match between them
- Tip 5: Under 10.5 corners 6.8 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
Moneyball's pick
The Dixon-Coles and xG model prices every line of this match: the win, draw and loss probabilities, fair odds and the expected value of each handicap and goals line. The full analysis of this match is part of Moneyball Premium.
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Union Berlin vs Borussia Dortmund: questions and answers
When is Union Berlin vs Borussia Dortmund?
Union Berlin vs Borussia Dortmund is on Saturday 17 October 2026, in Bundesliga Gameweek 6.
Where is Union Berlin vs Borussia Dortmund played?
At Stadion An der Alten Försterei, Berlin, Union Berlin's home ground.
Who will win Union Berlin vs Borussia Dortmund?
Borussia Dortmund are the favourites: Union Berlin 21%, draw 22%, Borussia Dortmund 57%. Our prediction is Union Berlin 1-2 Borussia Dortmund.
Who is the player to watch in Union Berlin vs Borussia Dortmund?
Serhou Guirassy of Borussia Dortmund: a complete forward with a Moneyball Score of 61 against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Union Berlin vs Borussia Dortmund?
Moneyball's model expects about 3.6 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 70%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.