Borussia Dortmund vs Bayer 04 Leverkusen Prediction and Stats | Bundesliga Gameweek 11
Bundesliga · Sunday 29 November 2026 · 18:30 UTC · Signal Iduna Park, Dortmund · updated 2026-11-15
Borussia Dortmund welcome Bayer 04 Leverkusen to Signal Iduna Park in Dortmund in Bundesliga Gameweek 11 action on Sunday 29 November 2026, kick-off 18:30 UTC.
Borussia Dortmund have played 9 matches in the Bundesliga this season, scoring 1.8 and conceding 0.8 goals a game and winning 67% of them. At home they average 2.0 goals scored and 0.6 conceded over 5 matches, with a 67% win rate. Bayer 04 Leverkusen have played 9 matches in the Bundesliga this season, scoring 2.2 and conceding 1.9 goals a game and winning 56% of them. Away from home they average 2.0 goals scored and 2.4 conceded over 5 matches, with a 40% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, Borussia Dortmund are narrow favourites at 50%, with the draw at 24% and Bayer 04 Leverkusen at 26%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Borussia Dortmund 1.86, Bayer 04 Leverkusen 1.28.
- Over 2.5 goals: 61% · both teams to score: 62%.
- Most likely score: 2–1 (10%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (9 and 9 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model.
Borussia Dortmund: form and key numbers
In style Borussia Dortmund keep the ball, press high.
- Expected goals: 1.55 a match created, 1.23 conceded (goals minus xG: +2.0).
- Shots: 15.3 a match, 5.6 on target.
- Possession: 53.7% on average.
- Clean sheets: 56% of matches (60% at home).
- Both teams scored in 44% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.6 a match.
- Discipline: 2.1 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.98.
Bayer 04 Leverkusen: form and key numbers
In style Bayer 04 Leverkusen keep the ball, press high, cross a lot.
- Expected goals: 2.00 a match created, 1.61 conceded (goals minus xG: +2.0).
- Shots: 18.3 a match, 6.0 on target.
- Possession: 58.9% on average.
- Clean sheets: 22% of matches (0% away).
- Both teams scored in 67% of their matches.
- Corners: 7.2 a match.
- Discipline: 2.3 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.89.
Borussia Dortmund vs Bayer 04 Leverkusen: season averages side by side
| Borussia Dortmund | Per match this season | Bayer 04 Leverkusen |
|---|---|---|
| 9 | Matches | 9 |
| 1.8 | Goals scored | 2.2 |
| 0.8 | Goals conceded | 1.9 |
| 1.55 | Expected goals (xG) | 2.00 |
| 1.23 | xG conceded | 1.61 |
| 15.3 | Shots | 18.3 |
| 5.6 | On target | 6.0 |
| 53.7 | Possession % | 58.9 |
| 56% | Clean sheets % | 22% |
| 44% | Both teams scored % | 67% |
| 5.6 | Corners | 7.2 |
| 2.1 | Yellow cards | 2.3 |
| 6.98 | Average rating | 6.89 |
Players to watch
Borussia Dortmund
- Waldemar Anton CB · Stopper · Moneyball Score 74 · Ball-winner, Duel winner (top 1% of his position)
- Joey Veerman CMF · Playmaker · Moneyball Score 67 · Long passer, Press-resistant (top 2% of his position)
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
- Aleix García CMF · Playmaker · Moneyball Score 78 · Ball circulator, Press-resistant (top 1% of his position)
- Patrik Schick CF · Poacher · Moneyball Score 73 · Scores and makes the chances to keep scoring, Gets into scoring positions (top 4% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Serhou Guirassy
Serhou Guirassy, 30 · Borussia Dortmund · CF · Poacher · Moneyball Score 77
Serhou Guirassy, 30, plays as a centre-forward for Borussia Dortmund in the Bundesliga. Strongest for his role in expected goals and goals, luck taken out. Weakest in big chances missed. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average centre-forward, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- ST · Centre-forward Natural, 77
- SS · Second striker Accomplished, 73
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Expected goals | 0.47 / 90 | 97% |
| Goals, luck taken out | 0.46 / 90 | 97% |
| Shots | 3.08 / 90 | 95% |
| Key passes | 1.67 / 90 | 90% |
| Shot quality (xG per shot) | 0.15 xG/shot | 88% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★½ Shadow striker Second striker
- ★★★★½ Poacher Centre-forward
- ★★★★½ Complete forward Centre-forward
Scout's notes: Gets into scoring positions, Scores and makes the chances to keep scoring, High shot volume.
- What Serhou Guirassy is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Serhou Guirassy's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Borussia Dortmund vs Bayer 04 Leverkusen prediction
Bayer 04 Leverkusen should have more of the ball; Borussia Dortmund press high to win the ball back; Bayer 04 Leverkusen work the ball wide and cross. Moneyball's model expects about 3.1 goals - 1.86 for Borussia Dortmund and 1.28 for Bayer 04 Leverkusen - with over 2.5 goals at 61% and both teams scoring at 62%. Borussia Dortmund have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: Borussia Dortmund 2-1 Bayer 04 Leverkusen
Borussia Dortmund vs Bayer 04 Leverkusen: what the numbers say
- 1. Borussia Dortmund unbeaten (win or draw) 74% between them
- 2. 3 or more goals 61% by the model, 3.15 goals expected
- 3. Both teams to score: yes 62% by the model
- 4. 4 or more cards the two sides average 5.4 cards a match between them
- 5. 10 or more corners 12.8 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties.
The full analysis
Moneyball reads every match in full: win, draw and loss, the most likely scores, goals and both teams to score, with the players who decide it.
More Bundesliga previews
- FC Bayern München vs FC Köln Friday 20 November 2026
- Elversberg vs SC Freiburg Saturday 21 November 2026
- Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Borussia Dortmund Saturday 21 November 2026
- FC Union Berlin vs RB Leipzig Saturday 21 November 2026
- Eintracht Frankfurt vs TSG Hoffenheim Saturday 21 November 2026
- Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs Paderborn Saturday 21 November 2026
- Schalke 04 vs VfB Stuttgart Saturday 21 November 2026
- FC Augsburg vs FSV Mainz 05 Sunday 22 November 2026
Borussia Dortmund vs Bayer 04 Leverkusen: questions and answers
When is Borussia Dortmund vs Bayer 04 Leverkusen?
Borussia Dortmund vs Bayer 04 Leverkusen is on Sunday 29 November 2026, kick-off 18:30 UTC, in Bundesliga Gameweek 11.
Where is Borussia Dortmund vs Bayer 04 Leverkusen played?
At Signal Iduna Park, Dortmund, Borussia Dortmund's home ground.
Who will win Borussia Dortmund vs Bayer 04 Leverkusen?
Borussia Dortmund are the favourites: Borussia Dortmund 50%, draw 24%, Bayer 04 Leverkusen 26%. Our prediction is Borussia Dortmund 2-1 Bayer 04 Leverkusen.
Who is the player to watch in Borussia Dortmund vs Bayer 04 Leverkusen?
Serhou Guirassy of Borussia Dortmund: a poacher with a Moneyball Score of 77 against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Borussia Dortmund vs Bayer 04 Leverkusen?
Moneyball's model expects about 3.1 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 61%.
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Moneyball is a football statistics site. No model predicts football reliably: every figure is an estimate.