FSV Mainz 05 vs FC Union Berlin Prediction and Stats | Bundesliga Gameweek 11
Bundesliga · Saturday 28 November 2026 · 14:30 UTC · Mewa Arena, Mainz · updated 2026-11-14
FSV Mainz 05 welcome FC Union Berlin to Mewa Arena in Mainz in Bundesliga Gameweek 11 action on Saturday 28 November 2026, kick-off 14:30 UTC.
FSV Mainz 05 have played 9 matches in the Bundesliga this season, scoring 2.0 and conceding 2.1 goals a game and winning 33% of them. At home they average 1.4 goals scored and 2.4 conceded over 5 matches, with a 0% win rate. FC Union Berlin have played 9 matches in the Bundesliga this season, scoring 0.8 and conceding 2.3 goals a game and winning 11% of them. Away from home they average 0.3 goals scored and 3.5 conceded over 4 matches, with a 0% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, FSV Mainz 05 are clear favourites at 64%, with the draw at 19% and FC Union Berlin at 17%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: FSV Mainz 05 2.39, FC Union Berlin 1.17.
- Over 2.5 goals: 69% · both teams to score: 63%.
- Most likely score: 3–1 (8%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (9 and 9 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model.
FSV Mainz 05: form and key numbers
In style FSV Mainz 05 press high, cross a lot, are strong in the air.
- Expected goals: 1.89 a match created, 1.75 conceded (goals minus xG: +1.0).
- Shots: 16.0 a match, 5.2 on target.
- Possession: 48.3% on average.
- Clean sheets: 33% of matches (33% at home).
- Both teams scored in 67% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.9 a match.
- Discipline: 2.4 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.88.
FC Union Berlin: form and key numbers
In style FC Union Berlin are happy without the ball, play long and direct, are strong in the air.
- Expected goals: 1.12 a match created, 1.93 conceded (goals minus xG: -3.1).
- Shots: 10.2 a match, 3.2 on target.
- Possession: 41.8% on average.
- Clean sheets: 22% of matches (0% away).
- Both teams scored in 44% of their matches.
- Corners: 3.1 a match.
- Discipline: 2.7 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.66.
FSV Mainz 05 vs FC Union Berlin: season averages side by side
| FSV Mainz 05 | Per match this season | FC Union Berlin |
|---|---|---|
| 9 | Matches | 9 |
| 2.0 | Goals scored | 0.8 |
| 2.1 | Goals conceded | 2.3 |
| 1.89 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.12 |
| 1.75 | xG conceded | 1.93 |
| 16.0 | Shots | 10.2 |
| 5.2 | On target | 3.2 |
| 48.3 | Possession % | 41.8 |
| 33% | Clean sheets % | 22% |
| 67% | Both teams scored % | 44% |
| 5.9 | Corners | 3.1 |
| 2.4 | Yellow cards | 2.7 |
| 6.88 | Average rating | 6.66 |
Players to watch
FSV Mainz 05
- Phillip Tietz CF · Target man · Moneyball Score 70 · Dominant in the air, Duel winner (top 1% of his position)
- Nadiem Amiri AMF · Creator · Moneyball Score 68 · Chance creator, Creator (top 9% of his position)
FC Union Berlin
- Leopold Querfeld CB · Box defender · Moneyball Score 68 · Box defender, Dominant in the air (top 3% of his position)
- Felix Uduokhai CB · Box defender · Moneyball Score 62 · Blocks shots, Box defender (top 3% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Anthony Caci
Anthony Caci, 29 · FSV Mainz 05 · RWB · Attacking wing-back · Moneyball Score 75
Anthony Caci, 29, plays as a wing-back for FSV Mainz 05 in the Bundesliga. Strongest for his role in key passes and interceptions. Weakest in dribbled past. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every wing-back in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average wing-back, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- RWB · Wing-back Natural, 75
- RM · Wide midfielder Natural, 75
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Key passes | 2.49 / 90 | 93% |
| Interceptions | 1.83 / 90 | 91% |
| Expected goals | 0.20 / 90 | 88% |
| Expected assists (est.) | 0.31 / 90 | 87% |
| Tackles | 2.88 / 90 | 84% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★½ Two-way wide midfielder Wide midfielder
- ★★★★½ Wide playmaker Wide midfielder
- ★★★★½ Attacking wing-back Wing-back
Scout's notes: Chance creator, Reads the game, Gets into scoring positions.
- What Anthony Caci is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Anthony Caci's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
FSV Mainz 05 vs FC Union Berlin prediction
FSV Mainz 05 should have more of the ball, with FC Union Berlin likely to sit in a compact block and look to break; both sides are a threat in the air and from set pieces. Moneyball's model expects about 3.6 goals - 2.39 for FSV Mainz 05 and 1.17 for FC Union Berlin - with over 2.5 goals at 69% and both teams scoring at 63%. FSV Mainz 05 have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: FSV Mainz 05 3-1 FC Union Berlin
FSV Mainz 05 vs FC Union Berlin: what the numbers say
- 1. FSV Mainz 05 win, the likeliest result 64% on Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers
- 2. 3 or more goals 69% by the model, 3.56 goals expected
- 3. Both teams to score: yes 63% by the model
- 4. 4 or more cards the two sides average 7.1 cards a match between them
- 5. 9 or more corners 9.0 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties.
The full analysis
Moneyball reads every match in full: win, draw and loss, the most likely scores, goals and both teams to score, with the players who decide it.
More Bundesliga previews
- FC Bayern München vs FC Köln Friday 20 November 2026
- Elversberg vs SC Freiburg Saturday 21 November 2026
- Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Borussia Dortmund Saturday 21 November 2026
- FC Union Berlin vs RB Leipzig Saturday 21 November 2026
- Eintracht Frankfurt vs TSG Hoffenheim Saturday 21 November 2026
- Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs Paderborn Saturday 21 November 2026
- Schalke 04 vs VfB Stuttgart Saturday 21 November 2026
- FC Augsburg vs FSV Mainz 05 Sunday 22 November 2026
FSV Mainz 05 vs FC Union Berlin: questions and answers
When is FSV Mainz 05 vs FC Union Berlin?
FSV Mainz 05 vs FC Union Berlin is on Saturday 28 November 2026, kick-off 14:30 UTC, in Bundesliga Gameweek 11.
Where is FSV Mainz 05 vs FC Union Berlin played?
At Mewa Arena, Mainz, FSV Mainz 05's home ground.
Who will win FSV Mainz 05 vs FC Union Berlin?
FSV Mainz 05 are the favourites: FSV Mainz 05 64%, draw 19%, FC Union Berlin 17%. Our prediction is FSV Mainz 05 3-1 FC Union Berlin.
Who is the player to watch in FSV Mainz 05 vs FC Union Berlin?
Anthony Caci of FSV Mainz 05: a attacking wing-back with a Moneyball Score of 75 against every wing-back in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in FSV Mainz 05 vs FC Union Berlin?
Moneyball's model expects about 3.6 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 69%.
Tags
Moneyball is a football statistics site. No model predicts football reliably: every figure is an estimate.