Union Berlin vs FC Köln Prediction and Betting Tips | Bundesliga Gameweek 8
Bundesliga · Sunday 1 November 2026 · updated 2026-11-01
Union Berlin welcome FC Köln to Stadion An der Alten Försterei in Berlin in Bundesliga Gameweek 8 action on Sunday 1 November 2026.
Union Berlin have played 7 matches in the Bundesliga this season, scoring 0.9 and conceding 2.6 goals a game and winning 14% of them. At home they average 1.3 goals scored and 1.5 conceded over 4 matches, with a 100% win rate. FC Köln have played 7 matches in the Bundesliga this season, scoring 1.1 and conceding 1.6 goals a game and winning 29% of them. Away from home they average 0.7 goals scored and 2.3 conceded over 3 matches, with a 0% win rate.
On the bookmakers' prices, with their margin taken out, there is little to separate them: Union Berlin 35%, the draw 28%, FC Köln 36%.
The odds
Decimal odds; the percentages are the chances the prices imply once the bookmaker's margin (10.1% on this market) is taken out. The main Asian handicap is Union Berlin 0 at 2.04, FC Köln at 1.86. The main goals line is 2.75: over 2.00, under 1.89, which gives over 49%.
Union Berlin: form and key numbers
In style Union Berlin are happy without the ball, are strong in the air.
- Expected goals: 1.27 a match created, 1.96 conceded (goals minus xG: -2.9).
- Shots: 11.9 a match, 3.9 on target.
- Possession: 42.6% on average.
- Clean sheets: 29% of matches (100% at home).
- Both teams scored in 43% of their matches.
- Corners: 3.6 a match.
- Discipline: 2.6 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.65.
FC Köln: form and key numbers
In style FC Köln are strong in the air.
- Expected goals: 1.62 a match created, 1.72 conceded (goals minus xG: -3.4).
- Shots: 15.7 a match, 5.0 on target.
- Possession: 50.3% on average.
- Clean sheets: 14% of matches (0% away).
- Both teams scored in 71% of their matches.
- Corners: 6.0 a match.
- Discipline: 1.9 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.81.
Union Berlin vs FC Köln: season averages side by side
| Union Berlin | Per match | FC Köln |
|---|---|---|
| 1.27 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.62 |
| 1.96 | xG conceded | 1.72 |
| 0.86 | Goals | 1.14 |
| 11.9 | Shots | 15.7 |
| 3.9 | Shots on target | 5.0 |
| 0.9 | Big chances missed | 2.0 |
| 34.4 | Pressure share % | 49.8 |
| 16.0 | Tackles | 16.3 |
| 11.3 | Fouls | 10.7 |
| 2.6 | Yellow cards | 1.9 |
Season averages per match from Sportmonks, over 7 and 7 measured matches.
Union Berlin vs FC Köln: head-to-head stats and key numbers
- Union Berlin have won 1, drawn 1 and lost 0 of the last 2 meetings in our data.
- Goals in those games: Union Berlin 3, FC Köln 2 - 2.5 a match.
- The most recent meeting finished Union Berlin 2-2 FC Köln (May 2nd 2026).
Head to head
In their last 2 meetings Union Berlin won 1, drew 1 and lost 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 May 2026 | Union Berlin | 2 – 2 | FC Köln |
| 20 Dec 2025 | FC Köln | 0 – 1 | Union Berlin |
Players to watch
Union Berlin
- Leopold Querfeld CB · Box defender · Moneyball Score 68 · Box defender, Dominant in the air (top 1% of his position)
- Tom Rothe LB · Defensive full-back · Moneyball Score 62 · Ball-winner, Duel winner (top 13% of his position)
FC Köln
- Jahmai Simpson-Pusey CB · Box defender · Moneyball Score 67 · Hard to dribble past, Disciplined (top 2% of his position)
- Marvin Schwäbe GK · Ball-playing keeper · Moneyball Score 66 · Long passer, Shot-stopper (top 5% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Tim Skarke
Tim Skarke, 30 · FC Union Berlin · CF · Poacher · Moneyball Score 66
Tim Skarke, 30, plays as a centre-forward for FC Union Berlin in the Bundesliga. Strongest for his role in shots on target and big chances missed. Weakest in aerial duels won. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average centre-forward, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- ST · Centre-forward Natural, 66
- SS · Second striker Accomplished, 60
- RW · Winger Natural, 59
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Shots on target | 64% | 88% |
| Big chances missed | 0.00 / 90 | 84% |
| Expected goals | 0.58 / 90 | 73% |
| Shot quality (xG per shot) | 0.18 xG/shot | 71% |
| Goals | 0.59 / 90 | 69% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★½ Shadow striker Second striker
- ★★★½ Poacher Centre-forward
- ★★★½ Inside forward Winger
Scout's notes: Accurate shooter, Rarely wastes a big chance.
- What Tim Skarke is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Tim Skarke's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Union Berlin vs FC Köln prediction
FC Köln should have more of the ball, with Union Berlin likely to sit in a compact block and look to break; both sides are a threat in the air and from set pieces. Moneyball's model expects about 3.0 goals - 1.39 for Union Berlin and 1.64 for FC Köln - with over 2.5 goals at 58% and both teams scoring at 61%. Little separates the sides on the numbers, and a draw is the single likeliest result.
Prediction: Union Berlin 1-1 FC Köln
The full model, every line of this match, in the Match Centre
Union Berlin vs FC Köln betting tips
- Tip 1: Draw or either side by one goal is the shape of it - avoid the result market no side above 36%
- Tip 2: Over 2.5 goals 58% by the model, 3.03 goals expected
- Tip 3: Both teams to score: yes 61% by the model
- Tip 4: Over 3.5 cards the two sides average 5.4 cards a match between them
- Tip 5: Over 8.5 corners 9.6 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
Moneyball's pick
The Dixon-Coles and xG model prices every line of this match: the win, draw and loss probabilities, fair odds and the expected value of each handicap and goals line. The full analysis of this match is part of Moneyball Premium.
Open Union Berlin vs FC Köln in the Match Centre Follow it live
More Bundesliga previews
- Bayern Munich vs Borussia Dortmund Sunday 1 November 2026
- Eintracht Frankfurt vs Hamburger SV Sunday 1 November 2026
Union Berlin vs FC Köln: questions and answers
When is Union Berlin vs FC Köln?
Union Berlin vs FC Köln is on Sunday 1 November 2026, in Bundesliga Gameweek 8.
Where is Union Berlin vs FC Köln played?
At Stadion An der Alten Försterei, Berlin, Union Berlin's home ground.
Who will win Union Berlin vs FC Köln?
It is close: Union Berlin 35%, draw 28%, FC Köln 36%. Our prediction is Union Berlin 1-1 FC Köln.
Who is the player to watch in Union Berlin vs FC Köln?
Tim Skarke of FC Union Berlin: a poacher with a Moneyball Score of 66 against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Union Berlin vs FC Köln?
Moneyball's model expects about 3.0 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 58%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.