Bayern Munich vs Borussia Dortmund Prediction and Betting Tips
Bundesliga · Sunday 1 November 2026 · updated 2026-10-26
Bayern Munich welcome Borussia Dortmund to Allianz Arena in Munich in Bundesliga action on Sunday 1 November 2026.
Bayern Munich have played 7 matches in the Bundesliga this season, scoring 3.6 and conceding 0.9 goals a game and winning 71% of them. At home they average 6.0 goals scored and 0.7 conceded over 3 matches, with a 60% win rate. Borussia Dortmund have played 7 matches in the Bundesliga this season, scoring 1.7 and conceding 0.6 goals a game and winning 71% of them. Away from home they average 1.3 goals scored and 0.7 conceded over 3 matches, with a 40% win rate.
On the bookmakers' prices, with their margin taken out, Bayern Munich are clear favourites at 68%, with the draw at 17% and Borussia Dortmund at 15%.
The odds
Decimal odds; the percentages are the chances the prices imply once the bookmaker's margin (10.4% on this market) is taken out. The main Asian handicap is Bayern Munich -1.5 at 1.90, Borussia Dortmund at 2.00. The main goals line is 4: over 2.03, under 1.85, which gives over 48%.
Bayern Munich: form and key numbers
In style Bayern Munich keep the ball, press high, take players on.
- Expected goals: 3.02 a match created, 0.90 conceded (goals minus xG: +3.9).
- Shots: 23.3 a match, 10.1 on target.
- Possession: 67.1% on average.
- Clean sheets: 29% of matches (50% at home).
- Both teams scored in 71% of their matches.
- Corners: 9.1 a match.
- Discipline: 0.9 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 7.21.
Borussia Dortmund: form and key numbers
In style Borussia Dortmund keep the ball, press high, cross a lot.
- Expected goals: 1.65 a match created, 0.91 conceded (goals minus xG: +0.5).
- Shots: 15.3 a match, 5.4 on target.
- Possession: 55.3% on average.
- Clean sheets: 71% of matches (40% away).
- Both teams scored in 29% of their matches.
- Corners: 6.0 a match.
- Discipline: 2.1 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 7.00.
Bayern Munich vs Borussia Dortmund: season averages side by side
| Bayern Munich | Per match | Borussia Dortmund |
|---|---|---|
| 3.02 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.65 |
| 0.90 | xG conceded | 0.91 |
| 3.57 | Goals | 1.71 |
| 23.3 | Shots | 15.3 |
| 10.1 | Shots on target | 5.4 |
| 3.7 | Big chances missed | 2.1 |
| 86.3 | Pressure share % | 62.3 |
| 13.7 | Tackles | 16.7 |
| 10.6 | Fouls | 10.7 |
| 0.9 | Yellow cards | 2.1 |
Season averages per match from Sportmonks, over 7 and 7 measured matches.
Bayern Munich vs Borussia Dortmund: head-to-head stats and key numbers
- Bayern Munich have won 3, drawn 2 and lost 0 of the last 5 meetings in our data.
- Goals in those games: Bayern Munich 10, Borussia Dortmund 7 - 3.4 a match.
- The most recent meeting finished Borussia Dortmund 2-3 Bayern Munich (February 28th 2026).
Head to head
In their last 5 meetings Bayern Munich won 3, drew 2 and lost 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28 Feb 2026 | Borussia Dortmund | 2 – 3 | Bayern Munich |
| 18 Oct 2025 | Bayern Munich | 2 – 1 | Borussia Dortmund |
| 12 Apr 2025 | Bayern Munich | 2 – 2 | Borussia Dortmund |
| 30 Nov 2024 | Borussia Dortmund | 1 – 1 | Bayern Munich |
| 25 May 2013 | Borussia Dortmund | 1 – 2 | Bayern Munich |
Players to watch
Bayern Munich
- Ismael Saibari AMF · Shadow striker · Moneyball Score 76 · Gets into scoring positions, High shot volume (top 2% of his position)
- Luis Díaz LWF · Inside forward · Moneyball Score 70 · High shot volume, Chance creator (top 9% of his position)
Borussia Dortmund
- Waldemar Anton CB · Stopper · Moneyball Score 74 · Reads the game, Box defender (top 2% of his position)
- Joey Veerman CMF · Playmaker · Moneyball Score 67 · Creator, Ball-winner (top 5% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Michael Olise
Michael Olise, 24 · FC Bayern München · RWF · Creative winger · Moneyball Score 91
Michael Olise, 24, plays as a winger for FC Bayern München in the Bundesliga. Strongest for his role in key passes and expected assists (est.). Weakest in dispossessed. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every winger in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average winger, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- RW · Winger Natural, 91
- CAM · Attacking midfielder Accomplished, 87
- RM · Wide midfielder Accomplished, 82
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Key passes | 4.08 / 90 | 100% |
| Expected assists (est.) | 0.53 / 90 | 99% |
| Shots | 4.71 / 90 | 99% |
| Big chances created | 0.94 / 90 | 98% |
| Accurate crosses | 1.88 / 90 | 96% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★★ Creative winger Winger
- ★★★★½ Classic winger Winger
- ★★★★½ Wide playmaker Wide midfielder
Scout's notes: Chance creator, Creator, High shot volume.
⚠ 6 goals from only 3.0 xG: finishing this far above his chances rarely lasts: check it is not a one-season wonder.
- What Michael Olise is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Michael Olise's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Bayern Munich vs Borussia Dortmund prediction
Bayern Munich should have more of the ball; Bayern Munich like to take players on; Borussia Dortmund are a threat in the air and from set pieces. Moneyball's model expects about 3.0 goals - 1.90 for Bayern Munich and 1.06 for Borussia Dortmund - with over 2.5 goals at 57% and both teams scoring at 56%. Bayern Munich have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: Bayern Munich 2-1 Borussia Dortmund
The full model, every line of this match, in the Match Centre
Bayern Munich vs Borussia Dortmund betting tips
- Tip 1: Bayern Munich to win 68% on the bookmakers' prices, with their margin taken out
- Tip 2: Over 2.5 goals 57% by the model, 2.95 goals expected
- Tip 3: Both teams to score: yes 56% by the model
- Tip 4: Over 3.5 cards the two sides average 4.0 cards a match between them
- Tip 5: Over 9.5 corners 15.1 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
Moneyball's pick
The Dixon-Coles and xG model prices every line of this match: the win, draw and loss probabilities, fair odds and the expected value of each handicap and goals line. The full analysis of this match is part of Moneyball Premium.
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Bayern Munich vs Borussia Dortmund: questions and answers
When is Bayern Munich vs Borussia Dortmund?
Bayern Munich vs Borussia Dortmund is on Sunday 1 November 2026, in the Bundesliga.
Where is Bayern Munich vs Borussia Dortmund played?
At Allianz Arena, Munich, Bayern Munich's home ground.
Who will win Bayern Munich vs Borussia Dortmund?
Bayern Munich are the favourites: Bayern Munich 68%, draw 17%, Borussia Dortmund 15%. Our prediction is Bayern Munich 2-1 Borussia Dortmund.
Who is the player to watch in Bayern Munich vs Borussia Dortmund?
Michael Olise of FC Bayern München: a creative winger with a Moneyball Score of 91 against every winger in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Bayern Munich vs Borussia Dortmund?
Moneyball's model expects about 3.0 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 57%.
Tags
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