FC Köln vs Elversberg Prediction and Stats | Bundesliga Gameweek 11
Bundesliga · Saturday 28 November 2026 · 14:30 UTC · RheinEnergieStadion, Cologne · updated 2026-11-14
FC Köln welcome Elversberg to RheinEnergieStadion in Cologne in Bundesliga Gameweek 11 action on Saturday 28 November 2026, kick-off 14:30 UTC.
FC Köln have played 9 matches in the Bundesliga this season, scoring 1.1 and conceding 1.6 goals a game and winning 22% of them. At home they average 1.4 goals scored and 1.2 conceded over 5 matches, with a 100% win rate. Elversberg have played 9 matches in the Bundesliga this season, scoring 1.9 and conceding 2.0 goals a game and winning 44% of them. Away from home they average 1.0 goals scored and 2.0 conceded over 5 matches, with a 25% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, FC Köln are narrow favourites at 46%, with the draw at 24% and Elversberg at 31%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: FC Köln 1.84, Elversberg 1.47.
- Over 2.5 goals: 64% · both teams to score: 65%.
- Most likely score: 2–1 (9%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (9 and 9 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model.
FC Köln: form and key numbers
In style FC Köln are strong in the air.
- Expected goals: 1.54 a match created, 1.58 conceded (goals minus xG: -3.9).
- Shots: 15.1 a match, 4.8 on target.
- Possession: 50.3% on average.
- Clean sheets: 11% of matches (100% at home).
- Both teams scored in 78% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.6 a match.
- Discipline: 2.4 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.81.
Elversberg: form and key numbers
In style Elversberg are happy without the ball, are strong in the air, take players on.
- Expected goals: 1.59 a match created, 2.23 conceded (goals minus xG: +2.7).
- Shots: 11.2 a match, 4.7 on target.
- Possession: 46.0% on average.
- Clean sheets: 11% of matches (100% away).
- Both teams scored in 67% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.3 a match.
- Discipline: 1.7 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.74.
FC Köln vs Elversberg: season averages side by side
| FC Köln | Per match this season | Elversberg |
|---|---|---|
| 9 | Matches | 9 |
| 1.1 | Goals scored | 1.9 |
| 1.6 | Goals conceded | 2.0 |
| 1.54 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.59 |
| 1.58 | xG conceded | 2.23 |
| 15.1 | Shots | 11.2 |
| 4.8 | On target | 4.7 |
| 50.3 | Possession % | 46.0 |
| 11% | Clean sheets % | 11% |
| 78% | Both teams scored % | 67% |
| 5.6 | Corners | 4.3 |
| 2.4 | Yellow cards | 1.7 |
| 6.81 | Average rating | 6.74 |
Players to watch
FC Köln
- Marvin Schwäbe GK · Ball-playing keeper · Moneyball Score 64 · Long passer, Shot-stopper (top 14% of his position)
- Tom Krauß DMF · Ball-winner · Moneyball Score 62 · Reads the game, Ball-winner (top 3% of his position)
Elversberg
- Nicolas Kristof GK · Sweeper keeper · Moneyball Score 69 · Box defender, Dominant in the air (top 1% of his position)
- Maximilian Rohr CB · Box defender · Moneyball Score 62 · Blocks shots, Reads the game (top 1% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Alessio Castro-Montes
Alessio Castro-Montes, 29 · FC Köln · RWB · Complete wing-back · Moneyball Score 60
Alessio Castro-Montes, 29, plays as a wing-back for FC Köln in the Bundesliga. Strongest for his role in dribbled past and successful dribbles. Weakest in expected goals. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every wing-back in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average wing-back, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- RB · Full-back Natural, 60
- RWB · Wing-back Natural, 60
- LM · Wide midfielder Natural, 60
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Dribbled past | 0.24 / 90 | 80% |
| Successful dribbles | 1.46 / 90 | 74% |
| Key passes | 1.71 / 90 | 67% |
| Tackles | 2.44 / 90 | 66% |
| Accurate crosses | 1.22 / 90 | 64% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★★ Attacking full-back Full-back
- ★★★★ Two-way wide midfielder Wide midfielder
- ★★★½ Complete wing-back Wing-back
Scout's notes: Hard to dribble past.
- What Alessio Castro-Montes is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Alessio Castro-Montes's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
FC Köln vs Elversberg prediction
FC Köln should have more of the ball, with Elversberg likely to sit in a compact block and look to break; both sides are a threat in the air and from set pieces. Moneyball's model expects about 3.3 goals - 1.84 for FC Köln and 1.47 for Elversberg - with over 2.5 goals at 64% and both teams scoring at 65%. FC Köln have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: FC Köln 2-1 Elversberg
FC Köln vs Elversberg: what the numbers say
- 1. FC Köln unbeaten (win or draw) 69% between them
- 2. 3 or more goals 64% by the model, 3.31 goals expected
- 3. Both teams to score: yes 65% by the model
- 4. 4 or more cards the two sides average 4.1 cards a match between them
- 5. 9 or more corners 9.9 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties.
The full analysis
Moneyball reads every match in full: win, draw and loss, the most likely scores, goals and both teams to score, with the players who decide it.
More Bundesliga previews
- FC Bayern München vs FC Köln Friday 20 November 2026
- Elversberg vs SC Freiburg Saturday 21 November 2026
- Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Borussia Dortmund Saturday 21 November 2026
- FC Union Berlin vs RB Leipzig Saturday 21 November 2026
- Eintracht Frankfurt vs TSG Hoffenheim Saturday 21 November 2026
- Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs Paderborn Saturday 21 November 2026
- Schalke 04 vs VfB Stuttgart Saturday 21 November 2026
- FC Augsburg vs FSV Mainz 05 Sunday 22 November 2026
FC Köln vs Elversberg: questions and answers
When is FC Köln vs Elversberg?
FC Köln vs Elversberg is on Saturday 28 November 2026, kick-off 14:30 UTC, in Bundesliga Gameweek 11.
Where is FC Köln vs Elversberg played?
At RheinEnergieStadion, Cologne, FC Köln's home ground.
Who will win FC Köln vs Elversberg?
FC Köln are the favourites: FC Köln 46%, draw 24%, Elversberg 31%. Our prediction is FC Köln 2-1 Elversberg.
Who is the player to watch in FC Köln vs Elversberg?
Alessio Castro-Montes of FC Köln: a complete wing-back with a Moneyball Score of 60 against every wing-back in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in FC Köln vs Elversberg?
Moneyball's model expects about 3.3 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 64%.
Tags
Moneyball is a football statistics site. No model predicts football reliably: every figure is an estimate.